Council briefings: BPA officials provide updates on resource programs, short and long term planning

Bonneville Dam on the Columbia River. At January's Council meeting, Bonneville Power Administration officials shared early thinking on their upcoming 2026 Resource Program, highlighting a potential need to acquire new resources to augment BPA's existing portfolio.

At January's Council meeting, senior BPA officials presented the results of their 2024 Resource Program, a planning exercise to assess what conservation and generation resources BPA may need to add in the near future, as well as early thinking for the agency's 2026 Resource Program. The 2024 Resource Program highlighted a need for BPA to potentially acquire new resources beyond energy efficiency for the first time in decades. Suzanne Cooper, Senior Vice President of Power Services, Ryan Egerdahl, Manager of Long Term Power Planning, Allie Mace, Manager of Market Analysis and Policy, and Eric Federovitch, Manager of Long Term Power Sales and Purchase, led the presentation for BPA (read presentation | watch video).

BPA's Resource Program is informational and not a decision document, but the results do inform Bonneville's resource acquisition strategies. What will determine whether Bonneville needs to acquire the output of generating resources should come by the end of this year, when Bonneville is set to execute new long-term contracts with its customers, or in 2026, when the customers may report to Bonneville on their needs under the new contracts. Bonneville is expecting to begin delivering power under those contracts in October 2028.

Which resources Bonneville adds will be guided by the agency's 2026 Resource Program in combination with the Council's Power Plan. Under the Northwest Power Act, BPA's acquisition of resources must be consistent with the Council's power plans. The Council will be working closely with BPA staff and other regional partners over the next two years to develop the Ninth Plan. The Council aims to have a draft ready for public review and comment by mid-2026, and adopt the final version by the end of that year.

"Until we have a little more certainty about what the load obligations will be placed on us under our new long-term power sales contracts that are under development, at this juncture, we're not planning to acquire any major resources," Cooper said. "But we're taking steps to prepare in the event that we do need to acquire resources and augment the system."

BPA aims to finish its 2026 Resource Program in September of that year. During the presentation at January's Council meeting, BPA officials discussed several scenarios that resulted from the 2024 Resource Program.

Tier 1 augmentation

BPA markets the electricity produced by 31 federal hydroelectric projects on the Columbia River, nuclear power from the Columbia Generating Station near the Tri-Cities, some contracts for wind power, as well as other small energy resources on the Pacific Northwest's grid. To acquire cost-effective energy efficiency resources identified in the Council's past power plans, BPA also has a long-standing energy efficiency program. Programs funded by BPA have accounted for roughly 2,600 aMW of the almost 8,000 total average megawatts of cost-effective efficiency that has been acquired in the Pacific Northwest since 1980.

Under the policy guiding its long-term contract development, beginning in Fiscal Year 2029 Bonneville has agreed to sell 7,250 aMW of power at a Tier 1 rate, which represents the cost of selling power from its existing system, including any additional acquisitions require to meet the 7,250 aMW amount. Currently, Tier 1 power accounts for about 70% of Bonneville's total annual sales. The federal agency is not-for-profit, self-financing, and does not rely on annual appropriations from Congress, so its rates recoup costs. The amount of Tier 1 power is calculated from the existing federal system's production. Tier 2 rates are calculated from the price of acquiring additional power needed for customers.

Based on the existing system capability, Bonneville will likely need to acquire additional resources to augment the existing federal base system to meet that obligation. Since the Columbia Generating Station was completed in 1984, there haven't been any additions to the federal power system, although BPA later signed contracts to buy portions of the output of several nonfederal power plants.

According to BPA's analysis, augmenting the Tier 1 power supply could be achieved with wind, solar, and geothermal power through 2045.

Load growth scenarios & new large single loads

BPA staff forecasted three trajectories of load growth between 2025 and 2045. The base case scenario saw growth of about 1,000 aMW new load added to BPA's system by 2045; the medium scenario growth was about 3,000 aMW of new load for BPA by 2045; and the high growth scenario added roughly 5,000 aMW of new load by 2045.

To meet these levels of demand, BPA's model runs acquired varying amounts of energy efficiency and demand response, as well as renewable energy and about 1,000 aMW of small-modular nuclear reactors by 2045. The analysis did not include building new natural gas, although Mace noted that BPA can acquire resources to meet the agency's needs in a cost-effective manner and through processes spelled out in the Northwest Power Act.

The cost of the base scenario portfolio was $800 million; the high load scenario portfolio cost was $35 billion.

Depending on the trajectory of load growth, BPA's computer modeling acquired these amounts of resources by 2045. Credit: BPA

The Council looks forward to working closely with BPA staff, regional partners, and the public across its four-state region of Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington in developing the Ninth Northwest Power Plan throughout 2025 and 2026.

In comments provided at a public workshop BPA hosted in December, Council staff recommended Bonneville consider more emerging resource options in Resource Program 2026.

Emerging resources have different attributes, so analyzing more options will provide additional insights to Bonneville on the types of resources needed for these long-term planning horizons. For reference, Power Division staff are planning to include three emerging resource options for the Ninth Northwest Power Plan.

Staff also encouraged BPA to evaluate some of its specific assumptions with small-modular nuclear reactors, particularly regarding online date and lifetime. Bonneville's model assumed the technology was commercially available as soon as 2030. Based on statements from Energy Northwest staff, the Council understands the online date for SMRs would be 2035 at the earliest.

BPA's model also assumed SMRs have a lifespan of 60 years. The assumed lifetime can significantly change the economics of a resource, with a longer lifetime making a resource look cheaper in the modeling. In the 2021 Power Plan, the Council used a 40-year life, and utilities across the region have used a range of assumptions from 30 years up to 60 years. Council staff are working with its advisory committees on the best assumptions for the upcoming Ninth Plan.

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