AGOA’s Uncertain Future: What’s at Stake for U.S.-Africa Trade

Commentary by Oge Onubogu

Published October 1, 2025

The Trump administration has signaled support for a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which expired on September 30, 2025. AGOA is often described as the cornerstone of U.S. commercial engagement with Africa, providing duty-free access to the U.S. markets for over 6,000 products from eligible African countries. Until this point, the Trump administration had not officially shared its position on AGOA renewal during his second term. The signal, which came two days before the bill expired, also coincides with a U.S. government shutdown. The ball is now in the hands of Congress, which has an opportunity to renew AGOA through the government funding bill that is currently at an impasse.

A Necessary Extension

More than just a trade deal, AGOA is widely acknowledged as having unrealized potential. It is a successful bipartisan piece of legislation that provides a foundation and framework for expanding U.S. commercial engagement in Africa. According to the U.S. International Trade Commission, AGOA has bolstered more than $100 billion in two-way trade between the United States and Africa since 2000. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge and address the unrealized potential of AGOA. However, this is impossible to do if the program is allowed to expire.

A short-term extension, even by one year, would be worthwhile. The Trump administration's position in support of a one-year extension not only removes a potential barrier to renewal, but it should also motivate Congress to ensure AGOA's renewal is included in the FY 2026 continuing resolution. While this will not generate new contracts, it will create room for honest discussion and provide an opportunity to negotiate a modernized AGOA or post-AGOA relationship between the United States and Africa.

Since its enactment in 2000, Congress has renewed AGOA several times with broad support from Republicans and Democrats, with the last renewal occurring in 2015 and passing in the U.S. Senate with a vote of 97-1. However, AGOA's uncertain future is testing the bipartisan consensus that investing in Africa is in the national interest.

In the last Congress, U.S. Senators James Risch (R-ID) and Chris Coons (D-DE) introduced the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024. The new act proposed an extension of AGOA by 16 years, until 2041. Likewise, in December 2024, Representative John James (R-MI) introduced the AGOA Extension and Enhancement Act of 2024, which proposed an extension of the program by 12 years, until 2037. Except for the difference in the lengths of extension, both bills were closely aligned in laying important groundwork for a more effective agreement that reflects today's trade realities. However, both failed to pass, leaving the future of AGOA uncertain.

Hanging in the Balance

As the future of AGOA hangs in the balance, a key question is what comes next for U.S.-Africa trade. The uncertainty surrounding AGOA's future coincides with a broader shift in U.S. foreign economic policy away from preference-based frameworks and toward transactional, bilateral deals. Many U.S. corporate leaders, concerned about AGOA's precarity, are shifting supply chains and rerouting investments elsewhere.

By 2030, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is projected to host a single market of 1.7 billion people, with a combined consumer and business spending of $7 trillion, creating a huge market potential for U.S. businesses. A renewed and enhanced AGOA, combined with a robust AfCFTA, would simultaneously benefit U.S. businesses and African economies. AGOA already shares complementary goals with the AfCFTA. Failing to renew AGOA could slow down efforts to align U.S. policy with the AfCFTA and diminish U.S. competitiveness against other global powers.

China-already Africa's largest trading partner-is aggressively expanding its commercial footprint in Africa. In June, China announced zero-tariff access for 53 African countries. Russia and the Gulf states are increasing their investment in the defense, logistics, and mining sectors.

As the United States faces increasing pressure to reassert its economic influence in Africa, a renewed and enhanced AGOA will be instrumental for achieving the United States' commercial diplomacy goals. A short-term renewal would provide an opportunity for Congress to explore how a modernized AGOA can best serve the interests of the United States and its partner countries on the continent.

The Risk of Congressional Inaction

The unpredictability over AGOA's renewal without a clear indication of what comes next puts the United States in a precarious position by disrupting long-term investment strategies for U.S. businesses that depend on duty-free access to African markets. It already contributed to a decline in trade and investment in 2023 and the first half of 2024, particularly in the textile and apparel sector.

While the success of AGOA's framework has not prevented the United States from losing ground to competitors such as China in the broader African markets, the clearest path for the United States to reassert its trade influence in African is to renew and enhance AGOA in a way that not only reaffirms U.S. economic and geopolitical interests but aligns with the administration's "America First" trade policies. To date, AGOA is the main trade arrangement that the United States has with any country in Sub-Saharan Africa.

If the U.S. government allows it to expire, the United States will be the only major global economy without a formal trade program in Sub-Saharan Africa. The cost of congressional inaction on AGOA will be significant, not just for AGOA-eligible countries, but also for the United States' strategic alliances and economic influence.

Ultimately, regardless of whether AGOA is renewed, enhanced, or allowed to expire, several factors, including Africa's growing agency, changing U.S. trade priorities, and the rise of geopolitical competition, are converging to reshape the U.S.-Africa relationship. Congress and the Trump administration must ensure that the United States has the right tools to compete geopolitically.

Oge Onubogu is the director and senior fellow of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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