The Gulf May Need New Vision

By Carl Tannenbaum

Leaders often have trouble focusing on the longer-term. In the corporate arena, pressure to produce quarterly earnings can truncate planning horizons. In public life, popular opinion and election cycles can impose myopia. It takes a unique set of ingredients to set, and stick to, a lasting vision.

The six nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) that compose the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have those ingredients in place. Their immense wealth and their dynastic leadership provided a foundation to think far into the future, and the ability to deliver on their ambitions. Several Gulf countries issued long-term plans for what they hoped to achieve by the year 2030.

2030 isn't that far off any more. But some of the goals within the Gulf's long-term vision statements seem a long way off. Nations were scaling back their ambitions before the war with Iran began, and will likely have to reconsider them further in the wake of the conflict. This will have important implications for Gulf countries, and for the rest of the world.

The GCC has a small population (just 60 million people), but it casts a big footprint on the global economy. Its oil is a substantial source of revenue and influence, and its wealth has facilitated substantial domestic and international investments.