Forecasts for the 2025 hurricane season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above-average active season for 2025 (1 June to 30 November):

• 13 to 19 named storms (wind speeds of 62 km/h or more)
• 6 to 10 hurricanes (from 119 km/h)
• of which 3 to 5 severe hurricanes of category 3 or higher (from 178 km/h)

(Source: https://www.noaa.gov/).

Colorado State University (CSU) also predicted a 48% probability of a hurricane hitting the US Gulf Coast. (Source: https://tropical.colostate.edu).

These predictions are based on:

• Above-average water temperatures of 26 °C in the North Atlantic
• Weakening La Niña phenomenon in the transition to the neutral phase → reduced wind shear leads to better conditions for tropical cyclones

High activity - but offshore

Despite appearances, the season is far from quiet. By mid-November, there had already been

• 13 named storms
• 5 hurricanes, 4 of which had wind speeds of over 250 km/h

However, apart from Melissa, none of them hit the mainland. Most of the systems remained in the Atlantic and dissipated there. According to NOAA, the reason for this is a weak Bermuda high and atmospheric steering currents around the high. This causes hurricanes to be pushed around like corks at sea. The weak Bermuda High does not push hurricanes far to the west towards the US coasts and steers them northwards early on - towards the Atlantic. (Source: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov)

Unusual development

• Late start of the season: First storm at the end of June (comparable to 2014)
• Lull in the peak period: No storms from the end of August to mid-September - similar to 1992

Colorado State University meteorologists attribute this to the combination of increased wind shear, dry air with Saharan dust and unfavourable influences of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. (Source: https://tropical.colostate.edu).

Luck in misfortune

The NOAA forecast was correct: this year's season is characterised by above-average activity. What was not in the forecast: the coasts have hardly been affected so far. Three extreme hurricanes (category 4 and 5) remained offshore. A stroke of luck for coastal residents.

But climate models show: The oceans are continuing to warm, increasing the risk of extreme hurricanes in the coming years. (Source: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov). Nobody can predict whether the storms will rarely hit land, as they did this year.

Hurricane risk for insurers

Hurricanes in the North Atlantic can cause considerable costs for insurers such as Talanx and have a significant impact on the company's success. The risks of the hurricane season are factored into the amount of the large loss budget for the third quarter.

The decisive factor for insurers is not just the number of storms, but how many actually make landfall and cause damage. So far, the 2025 hurricane season has been favourable: the routes of the storms also contributed to an unusually low claims experience at Talanx in the third quarter. The large loss budget therefore still provides a buffer for the rest of the year. But it could have been different. This shows: The hurricane season therefore remains a significant factor in insurers' risk calculations.