India: Weak Southwest Monsoon and El Nino Threaten Winter Sowing

The 2026 southwest monsoon concluded 13 percent below the long-period average at 759.4 millimeters, ranking as the fourth lowest since 2001 with severe rainfall deficits hitting east, northeast, and south India. This triggered widespread negative moisture anomalies and left major reservoir storage at 71.84 percent capacity significantly below normal and last year's levels, particularly straining southern and western regions. Total Kharif crop sowing has remained relatively resilient at 130.25 million hectares down just one percent year-on-year with minor shifts in rice and pulses. However, looming El Niño conditions and below-normal rainfall forecasts for October point to constrained irrigation. Consequently, winter (rabi) season planting is expected to tilt heavily toward drought-resilient, water-efficient crops over heavy water-consuming staples.