An inside look at the volatile cattle markets and the slow process of rebuilding

An inside look at the volatile cattle markets and the slow process of rebuilding

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Media Contact: Dean Ruhl | Communications & Media Relations Specialist | 405-780-5840 | [email protected]

Nate Bradford's "lifetime" in cattle ranching shows in his face.

Bradford, with just enough gray in his beard to highlight his experience, hoists himself into the cab of his John Deere tractor. On a cold November morning in Bristow, the maneuvers around his 160 acres are second nature to him. Hay bales scatter his pasture as horses trot alongside him. The sun creeps up over the tree line surrounding his property.

"It's nature," Bradford said. "It's what God has given us to take care of, and we try to be good stewards of the land."

A cattle rancher to the core, Bradford's seen it all. And while the latest volatility in the cattle market hasn't caused too much discomfort for the family-run G-Line Ranch, adaptation to the circumstances has been needed. Heading into 2026, the cattle markets have yet to reach their peak, meaning more discomfort is on the horizon.

"It's way different," Bradford said. "For one, you know what's happening through social media and the news. Markets rise and fall like that. If you're not following it, you can end up with your cattle at the sale barn and lose $200 a head because you had no idea what was happening."

Where cattle markets stand currently

Bradford is no stranger to the cyclical nature of cattle markets. As Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension specialist for livestock marketing, points out, the industry has a 100-year history of peaks and valleys.

For the current iteration, which began seeing dramatic price hikes in late 2022, the timeline continues to extend.

"To go from low to peak, it takes two things," Peel said. "You try to cull fewer cows - cow slaughter decreases - and heifer retention goes up. You must do both things."

The "low" Peel refers to is the number of cattle in the United States. The 2025 calf crop is expected to be the lowest since 1941.

The market needs to hit a "bottom," which Peel explains will begin the rebuilding process and eventually reach the "peak" he mentioned. Hitting the bottom will result in the highest prices before eventually backsliding into more stable pricing.

Entering the final quarter of 2025, the bottom hasn't occurred yet. Peel explains that the "definitive" number will be released at the end of January 2026, when the USDA publishes its annual cattle inventory report.

Rebuilding poses unique challenges

Another element at play: the uniqueness of raising cattle. They grow more slowly than other livestock and only produce one offspring per birth, which results in a slower rebuilding process.

"If that calf is a female, you get to make one choice," Peel said. "You can either keep her for breeding, or you can use her for beef production now. It's a question of investing in beef production or current consumption."

For the Bradfords, the key in a volatile market is remaining diverse. Over the decades, G-Line Ranch has expanded into new markets, selling farm-to-table beef, opening a deer processing plant, raising and baling hay and working on livestock genetics.

"We're living in a world where things are really fast, and you've got to be able to maneuver as fast as you can," Bradford said. "That's challenging for us. We're using technology to stay aware, watch markets and not run off of emotions."

Environmental factors play a part

The current state of the cattle market is largely attributed to a multi-year drought that began in 2021. Producers were forced to sell off parts of their herd due to a shortage of available grazing land. This year, the Mexican border was closed to beef imports because of a New World screwworm outbreak. As of November, the United States isn't prepared to reopen the border, but Peel says the closure only affected the beef supply fractionally.

Some positives have been seen. Feedlot inventories are lower year-over-year in 2025, which bodes well for hitting the cyclical low in cattle inventories. Beef production is expected to decrease by 4.5% this year, and Peel predicts a continued decline in the coming years.

But it's too soon to tell if heifer retention in 2026 will be significant.

"The tight supplies and high prices we have now are going to be exaggerated even more," Peel said. "They're going to get tighter before they can get better. We'll be a couple of years into that process if we start now."

Costs of raising cattle are soaring, too

A 2010 dataset indicated the average weaning weight for cattle was 576 pounds. In a similar study conducted in 2024, the average weaning weight dropped to 553 pounds.

"If you look at the data over time and you plot every single year, calf weaning weights in many parts of the country - particularly our part of the country - are not increasing at the ranch level," said David Lalman, OSU Extension beef cattle breeding specialist on "SUNUP" - OSU Extension's weekly production agriculture TV show.

Why? The ranch environment, over time, limits the genetic expression of growth at weaning, Lalman explained. Once they reach the feedlot, cattle are still able to grow due to a high-quality diet. Creep feeding and lower stocking rates could be potential solutions.

The weaning weight numbers are only part of the story behind modern-day cow raising. In 2010, Lalman said the average cost of running a cow was $615, including fixed and variable costs. Those numbers increased significantly in 2024, more than doubling to $1,348.

Feed costs likewise doubled over that timeframe, ballooning from a $360 average to $684 average per cow. The cost of leasing pasture for grazing hasn't increased nearly as much as other expenses, though.

There are some positives for producers. The average cattle price has nearly quadrupled when compared to 2025 numbers. Even last year, the average per hundredweight rose from $280 to $412.

Prices will come down, eventually

"We're sitting right here at all-time, record-high cattle prices," Lalman said. "But this will not go on forever. One of the key take-home messages is for people to be aware of what's happening at their operation. Know your cost of production. Know if your calf weaning weights are going up or if they've stabilized."

As Bradford explains, the high market does feel good now. But as someone who's learned a lot during his ranching tenure, he knows to be smart with the excesses.

"What's challenging is that you don't want to spend too much time thinking that it is going to stay like this," Bradford said. "It's always a cycle."

Even with record returns, the cost of production is still high for producers. Bradford told a story of opting for $25,000 in equipment repairs instead of spending $60,000 on new equipment. Feed prices, fuel costs, and labor expenses all remain high.

Some producers are still rehabilitating their pastures after the drought, a factor in the slow herd rebuilding process. But the volatility will not last forever.

Once the market hits its bottom, producers will begin the slow process of rebuilding their herds. However, with record-high demand for beef, consumer prices are likely to continue increasing before they improve.

The ever-evolving industry of cattle ranching is likely to continue changing. Despite the challenges, Bradford says the future looks bright.

"That's the cowboy way about this," Bradford said. "When you're in tough times, you throw your rope, no matter what's out there, and you get a hold of it."