Presentation of this year’s public threat and risk assessments

'Policy must be knowledge-based. Better insight into the threats we face is essential for strengthening Norway's security and for identifying measures that reduce risk. These assessments also help both public and private entities to strengthen their own resilience, thereby safeguarding Norwegian security interests in line with the National Security Strategy,' said Minister of Justice and Public Security Astri Aas-Hansen.

Minister of Defence Tore O. Sandvik and the Minister of Justice and Public Security attended the press conference on 6 February, where the Director of the Norwegian Intelligence Service, Nils Andreas Stensønes, the Director of the Police Security Service (PST), Beate Gangås, and the Director of the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM), Arne Christian Haugstøyl, presented their assessments of current security challenges.

The knowledge provided by the oversight services is intended to strengthen public vigilance, preparedness and understanding.

'We are now facing the most serious security situation since the Second World War. Sound knowledge of the threats we face is essential when developing policies and measures that enhance our security. The Total Defence Year 2026 is about standing together in what is, to put it mildly, a more turbulent time. When the Armed Forces, civilian authorities, businesses, volunteers and the population pull in the same direction, Norway is better equipped to handle both everyday crises and the most serious scenarios,' said Minister of Defence Tore O. Sandvik.

He highlighted Russia as the greatest threat to Norwegian and allied security.
'Russia's attack on Ukraine represents a direct threat to peace and security throughout Europe. Ukraine is dependent on extensive military support in its defensive struggle against Russia. Norway is a leading contributor to Ukraine, politically, militarily and humanitarianly. It is important that Norway continues to support Ukraine so that a peace settlement can be reached on Ukraine's terms,' he said.

PST emphasised that the intelligence threat in Norway is significant, and expects foreign states to use integrated means on Norwegian soil. This includes cyber and influence operations, sabotage, recruitment of human sources, evasion of sanctions and export control regulations, as well as security-threatening economic measures.
In response to this threat landscape, NSM provides advice on how authorities, organisations and individuals should protect themselves. The report therefore contains examples and recommended measures that Norwegian entities may implement to protect themselves against espionage, sabotage, terrorism and hybrid threats.

'Without being alarmed, everyone should be prepared. The population, businesses and public organisations should familiarise themselves with the threat and risk assessments and develop tailored risk-reducing measures. Both private and public entities must have plans for how they can maintain operations in times of crisis or war, and the assessments presented today can be a useful tool,' said the Minister of Justice and Public Security.

Watch the press conference here: E-tjenesten, PST og NSM legger frem årets trusselvurderinger - regjeringen.no

Read the reports here:
In its annual report Fokus, the Norwegian Intelligence Service provides its analysis of threat actors and developments that the service considers particularly relevant to Norwegian security in the coming year.

PST's annual threat assessment analyses expected developments within PST's areas of responsibility, including terrorism, espionage and threats against public officials.

NSM's annual risk assessment Risiko contributes to a broader understanding of security. Authorities and organisations must protect themselves against the threats identified by the Norwegian Intelligence Service and PST in their assessments. Risiko 2025 describes how.

(Translated with the use of a AI)