Election Watch: Moldova

On October 20, Moldovans will head to the polls to elect their next president in a race between incumbent president Maia Sandu and ten other candidates. Voters will also participate in a constitutional referendum to join the European Union (EU), following the start of formal accession negotiations in June 2024.

What are the issues?

The question of EU accession has dominated this election. Sandu's party introduced the reforms necessary to be granted EU candidate country status and to begin accession negotiations following the start of Russia's war on Ukraine. If the referendum passes, Moldova's European path will be enshrined in the country's constitution, and will signal to the EU the desire of Moldovans to join the European Union.

What can we expect?

President Sandu been in power since December 2020, and is the frontrunner in Sunday's race. To win the election in this first round, Sandu must win more than 50% of the vote. If no one wins an absolute majority, a second round will take place on November 3. According to a recent IRI poll, an estimated 90% of Moldovans are likely to vote, and more than half plan to vote "yes" on the question of EU membership.

What's at stake?

The threat of Russian interference looms over both contests, with the Kremlin seeking to drive Moldova away from Europe. According to IRI Senior Director for Eurasia Stephen Nix, "As Moldova navigates significant internal and external challenges, the integrity of this election is vital not only for the nation but also for the broader stability of the region."

IRI in Moldova

IRI has deployed an International Election Observation Mission (IEOM) to monitor the election, led by six-term U.S. Congressman Peter Roskam and former EU Commissioner and United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Danuta Hübner. Other prominent members of the mission include Polish Senator Tomasz Lenz and former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice of Latvia Jānis Bordāns.