Imminent Expiration of New START Could Start Dangerous New Nuclear Arms Race

Once New START expires, the two countries with the world's largest nuclear arsenals by far will face an era without any formal restrictions on their strategic nuclear forces for the first time since 1972. The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) recently published an in-depth analysis of this issue, finding that without the mutual constraints provided by New START, both countries could field hundreds of additional nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks, their deployed nuclear forces could double within a few years, and that the number of participants in the arms race could spread.

"The expiration of New START would be massively destabilizing and potentially very costly both in terms of economics and security. If the United States and Russia expand their arsenals, China and other countries may feel compelled to join in the arms race," said Jennifer Knox, research and policy analyst for the Global Security program at the UCS. "The United States and Russia already have enough deployed nuclear weapons to kill tens of millions of people in an hour and devastate the world. Letting New START lapse would erase decades of hard-won progress and only make the world less safe."

Disarmament and arms control treaties between the United States and Russia have successfully served as bulwarks against an unconstrained arms race. Negotiations for these treaties typically take months to years, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly offered to essentially voluntarily abide by New START's provisions for another year if the United States does likewise.

In making the offer to abide by New START, Russia extended the space in which a negotiation could take place. In addition to accepting this offer, the United States should broach talks on a durable new deal that also addresses emerging technologies, strategic stability, and verification methods.

"Abiding by New START for another year would be a win-win-win for the United States, Russia, and the rest of the world," said Dr. Tara Drozdenko, director of the Global Security program at UCS. "The Trump administration should take swift action to publicly acknowledge that the United States will continue to abide by New START in the interim."

The coming expiration of New START is emblematic of a potential larger turn away from disarmament and arms control toward greater reliance on nuclear weapons. There is an ongoing push from some corners in the United States to unnecessarily begin building new nuclear weapons and even to overturn the global moratorium on nuclear testing, which would be another lose-lose proposition for the United States.

"The second Trump administration has rolled back important progress on so many fronts, from climate and clean energy to democracy and human rights, putting our collective safety and security increasingly at risk," said Dr. Gretchen Goldman, president and CEO of UCS. "That this administration would allow universally beneficial nuclear arms control treaties to lapse is not shocking, but the lack of any care to these foundational agreements that protect us all should alarm everyone."