New global M&A trends and risks survey predicts increased dealmaking in year ahead

Global law firm Norton Rose Fulbright and Mergermarket today launched the fourth edition of their Global M&A Trends and Risks 2026 report, highlighting renewed confidence among dealmakers for the year ahead despite ongoing geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty.

Responses show that 52 percent of business executives polled expect global dealmaking to increase in 2026 relative to 2025, including 20 percent who forecast a significant increase. This is a notable uptick from last year's survey findings, in which just 38 percent expected M&A activity to rise.

Technology is on top as AI reshapes deal strategies: Technology is set to lead growth in cross-border M&A in 2026, with 67 percent of respondents ranking it as the top sector for expansion, well ahead of industrials and energy. AI continues to stand out, with 78 percent of respondents expecting it to offer the most attractive dealmaking opportunities this year, up from 60 percent in 2025.

Reflecting that trend, 24 percent of respondents-rising to 38 percent among private equity participants-are looking to acquire businesses that make significant use of AI, while another 14 percent are targeting pure-play AI companies.

Private equity dry powder and private credit underpin deal momentum: A glut of private equity dry powder is expected to drive deal activity in 2026, with 48 percent of respondents naming it as a top-three driver of global M&A. This ranks alongside industry consolidation (45 percent) and disposals of non-core assets (37 percent) as key forces shaping the market.

At the same time, financing conditions are evolving. Eighty-six percent of respondents say private credit will remain a key source of M&A financing over the next two years, while exactly half expect financing to become easier to secure, including 19 percent who anticipate it becoming significantly easier.

Regional trends point to selective optimism: The United States and Europe are expected to be among the strongest M&A markets in 2026, with 48 percent and 43 percent of survey respondents, respectively, anticipating a significant increase in deal activity for each region. In Asia Pacific, confidence is improving, driven by consolidation, supply chain resilience and non-core disposals. Canada also stands out, with 57 percent expecting M&A activity to increase, making it one of the most positive regions globally.

Valuation gaps forecast as greatest barrier: Valuation gaps are forecast to be by far the biggest obstacle to completing M&A deals in the year ahead, cited by 48 percent of respondents as a top-three challenge. This places them ahead of geopolitical uncertainty (39 percent) and financing constraints (37 percent).

This is the first time in recent years that valuation gaps have emerged as respondents' primary concern. Antitrust is the most cited regulatory obstacle, receiving an average of 35 percent of top-two responses across all regions, followed by sanctions and anti-corruption policies (32 percent) then FDI regulations (26 percent).

Use of deal insurance expected to increase: More than half (58 percent) of respondents expect the use of R&W/W&I insurance to increase in 2026 compared with last year, including 32 percent who anticipate a significant increase. This is particularly evident in South and Southeast Asia and Africa.

Raj Karia, Global Head of Corporate, M&A and Securities at Norton Rose Fulbright, said:

"After a period of disruption, we are seeing a clear return to disciplined, strategy-driven transactions. While geopolitical and regulatory pressures remain, dealmakers are adapting their approaches-whether through financing, structuring or targeted investments in areas such as AI. The overall shift is positive, with strong fundamentals supporting increased activity in 2026."

Norton Rose Fulbright's global corporate, M&A and securities team provides practical business-focused legal advice across the full spectrum of matters, including public transactions, take-privates, strategic review processes, joint ventures, carveout dispositions and acquisitions, debt and equity capital markets transactions, governance, compliance, general commercial and corporate advisory matters.

More than 450 M&A partners and 700 other deal lawyers worldwide advise on some of the most high-profile, complex and significant transactions in the market. Over the past five years, they advised on more than 1,000 M&A deals globally, of which 570 have a combined disclosed value of over US$440 billion (Mergermarket, 2026).