Australia’s 2025 Election: Decisive Labor Majority Amid Liberal Collapse

Australia's 2025 Election: Decisive Labor Majority Amid Liberal Collapse

Photo: Izhar Khan/Getty Images

This result also strengthens Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's hand-not only is he the first Australian prime minister to win two consecutive elections in more than 20 years, but he will not have to rely on independents or third-party members of Parliament to pass legislation in the House. Labor's numbers in the Senate have increased, and Albanese's own faction (Labor left) has gained seats and will therefore likely have more cabinet positions. While Albanese's instincts are both cautious and moderate, his authority in Australian politics will be significantly strengthened, and the ALP (the Labor Party) is likely to take this as a resounding confirmation of its own policies, both foreign and domestic.

Q2: What are the major issues confronting the new government, and what's on the foreign policy agenda?

A2: This election was predominantly focused on domestic issues, with cost-of-living concerns-including inflation, housing prices, energy costs, healthcare, and interest rates-dominating the conversation. Social cohesion concerns-there has been a major spike in antisemitism in Australia-were also a prominent election topic.

As such, the new government has said that addressing cost-of-living issues, navigating increased macroeconomic uncertainty, and boosting productivity will dominate its agenda for the next three years.

National security issues played only a minor role in this election, and there seemed to be a profound disconnect between a noticeably darkening strategic environment and a domestic Australian political conversation intent on ignoring that shift. This is particularly evident around defense spending. Absent a profound strategic surprise, it seems unlikely that the Albanese government will do much more on the defense front, beyond a modest increase in defense spending.

Where foreign policy did intrude into the election, it was clearly, if implicitly, in the form of Donald Trump, his tariffs, and the broader set of disruptive policies emanating from Washington. Dutton and the Liberals faced voter scrutiny over their perceived similarities to Trump-especially on cultural issues and with ideas such as a U.S. Department of Government Efficiency-like approach to the public sector. There were enough similarities to the Canadian election to suggest that the conservative Liberal Party's fortunes fell as Trump's tariffs and attacks on the United States' allies ramped up.

It would be a mistake to read too much into this-there is widespread belief that the Liberals ran a disastrous political campaign, and Labor a disciplined one, with the Labor campaign predominantly focusing on the domestic issues that were voters' top concerns. But this campaign has also occurred at the very moment that there has been a noticeable and rapid decline in Australian confidence in the United States.

Anthony Albanese has some immediate travel on his calendar and has announced that his first trip abroad will be to Jakarta-reinforcing the importance of this relationship for Australia, especially in light of recent reports of Russia seeking military access to an airfield in western Indonesia. Albanese will also be heading to Malaysia for an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit later in May, potentially traveling to Canada in June for the G7 summit, possibly flying into Washington, D.C., after that, and visiting Papua New Guinea in September. But apart from a busy travel schedule, the prime minister faces a much more uncertain and demanding international environment. While foreign policy was not featured greatly during this election, the challenges confronting the Australian government are in no short supply. Decisions will have to be made, and policies pursued on everything from rapidly building up its defense capacities, to dealing with a more demanding United States that many in Australia judge as also less reliable, responding to an increasingly assertive China, and producing an affordable and resilient supply of energy and critical minerals.

Q3: What does this mean for the U.S.-Australian alliance?

A3: Australia and the United States have a deep and historic alliance, and that is unlikely to change. And there's a robust policy agenda for the two countries on everything from AUKUS (a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to force posture and critical mineral coordination. Nevertheless, the election indicates not only a growing skepticism in Australia about the direction of the United States, but also that there will be some bilateral policy challenges-both on Australia's relatively low levels of defense funding and on Canberra's narrative about its stabilization of its ties with Beijing. And, to any pressure that Albanese might feel from Washington, there will also undoubtedly be a sense from Labor that he is politically secure and that his policy instincts are correct.

On AUKUS, the Australian government remains fully committed, though pressure to move faster-both on AUKUS and more broadly on the defense front-will decrease.

Given how intertwined Australian defense strategy is with the United States, there will still be plenty of cooperation, and thus far, the Australians have largely been able to separate U.S. trade policy and defense cooperation. But, given Trump's unpopularity in Australia, that could become more difficult.

The most immediate issues on the bilateral agenda include defining further what a critical minerals cooperation between Canberra and Washington could look like; ensuring proper levels of political support and governmental funding for AUKUS, defense capabilities, force posture agreements, and defense coordination mechanisms; and, of course, dealing with the haphazard imposition of tariffs. Trump's recent announcement of 100 percent tariffs for imported movies could impact a thriving Australian movie scene; if this tariff includes television production, it would be even worse and create a backlash from U.S. parents who are addicted to Bluey.

Charles Edel is a senior adviser and the inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.