Employment quality affects participation in protests and political violence in the Middle East and North Africa

Unemployment is often assumed to increase the likelihood of protests and political violence, such as riots, terrorism, and armed conflicts. However, evidence supporting this assumption has been limited in previous research and no connection was found in this recent study, which compared the participation of unemployed and employed young people in protests and political violence in five Middle Eastern and North African countries: Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia.

There was no difference between the unemployed and the employed in terms of how likely they were to participate in protests or political violence.
Young people working a few weekly hours participate more often than those working more hours. Those dissatisfied with their jobs are also more likely to participate in protests and political violence.

The most active participants are those whose employment situation is ambiguous. In the survey, they reported being, for example, both unemployed or students and working. Based on the data, many of these young people are employed in the informal sector.

In view of the research, the impact of poverty on involvement does not appear straightforward. According to the results, an employee's income does not have a clear connection to participation in protests and violence. However, when considering all respondents and their families' possessions, a better economic status correlates with increases in the likelihood of participation. On the other hand, those who feel poor or rich have participated more often than those who consider themselves middle-income.

"There seems to be a connection between the labour market and societal stability, but the essential factor is not whether a person is employed or unemployed. Some previous studies have also pointed in the same direction," says Kari Paasonen, author of the study and a doctoral researcher at the Tampere Peace Research Institute (TAPRI).

Much money intended to reduce political violence has been directed towards job creation.

"However, based on the results, job creation is not the key to calming down societies. More attention should be paid to employment quality. Although certain statistical differences are observed, it is also good to remember that regardless of a person's employment situation, only a few participate in political violence or protests," Paasonen continues.

The newly study is based on a survey conducted in 2015-2016, which was answered by a total of 10,000 young people aged 15-29 from the five countries included in the study. The survey data provides a very fine-grained picture of the employment situation compared to other previously used data. The research article was published in October 2024 by the prestigious international scientific Journal of Peace Research.

The research article is part of Paasonen's ongoing research for his doctoral dissertation, which examines the connection between unemployment and protests and political violence in the Middle East and North Africa using a multi-method approach. Paasonen is conducting his study at Tampere Peace Research Institute (TAPRI) which focuses on diverse research on themes related to peace and conflicts.

The research article:

Paasonen, K. (2024). It's not just about jobs: The significance of employment quality for participation in political violence and protests in selected Arab Mediterranean countries. Journal of Peace Research, 0(0).

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Further information:

Doctoral Researcher Kari Paasonen
Tel. +358 40 813 8603
kari.paasonen[at] tuni.fi(kari[dot]paasonen[at]tuni[dot]fi)

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