New Predictions About El Niño Summer Announced During Briefing with Experts from Aquarium of the Pacific, NOAA’s National Weather Service, and NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries[...]

June 11, 2026

June 11, 2026, Long Beach, California-The current marine heat wave that Southern California waters are experiencing is predicted to continue into August, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service has just released that a strong El Niño is expected to begin in late summer. Together, this will have significant impacts on marine life. The predicted El Niño will also have effects around the world. Experts from the Aquarium of the Pacific, NOAA's National Weather Service, and NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (Southwest Fisheries Science Center) gathered at the aquarium in Long Beach to announce the latest regional, national, and international predictions ahead of the first day of summer.

Warmer than normal ocean temperatures are affecting ocean ecosystems off Southern California due to a continuing marine heat wave that formed in late 2025. NOAA's ocean temperature forecast suggests that the current heat wave off Southern California, and a separate large marine heat wave in the Gulf of Alaska will continue through August 2026 and will be somewhat similar, although smaller, to 2015, when it was referred to as "The Blob." NOAA experts shared that we should expect to transition to an El Niño system starting in late summer 2026, and impacts on ocean temperatures and ecosystems will be somewhere between those observed during past strong El Niño events and "The Blob" event in 2015-2016. Overall effects will likely depend on how long the ocean ecosystem is exposed to these warmer than normal ocean temperatures.

Globally, El Niño will shift rainfall patterns in different parts of the world. For many areas below the equator odds favor drier than normal conditions, including in Oceania. Some areas, including Southern California, odds favor typically wetter than normal conditions. Although past strong El Niño events have historically favored near normal or wet winter months, this does not guarantee a future outcome. Across the country, September through November 2026 will have above normal seasonal temperatures, excluding the Midwest. Going into 2027, temperatures will be above normal across the country, excluding the Southwest and Southeast. However, those excluded areas will see an above normal probability of rain.

As for marine life, Aquarium of the Pacific experts share that El Niño impacts can vary, but often leads to less upwelling, a process that provides nutrients to the plankton at the base of the food web. In some cases, marine heat waves can also be favorable for harmful algal blooms if conditions are right. Marine heat waves also result in habitat compression, which results in animals moving into different areas to find food or suitable temperatures. Whales foraging in different areas could potentially become entangled as they move closer to shore as they search for food. "The public here in Southern California should expect to see an increase in shark sightings and tropical species, including sport fish like tuna, pelagic red crabs, as well as marine animals washing up on our shores. Warmer waters are enticing to some sharks, who may be displaced from tropical or warm temperate areas," said Nate Jaros, Aquarium of the Pacific vice president of animal care, fish and invertebrates.

Kelp forests, an important habitat, feeding ground, and nursery off the Southern California coast, are also affected by warming waters. Since 2022, the Aquarium has been preserving and storing the genetic material of bull kelp to use in future out planting events to help kelp forest ecosystems. The genetic material is being stored in a specialized refrigerator that keeps it in stasis.

"As a non-profit organization committed to ocean conservation and education, the Aquarium of the Pacific is focused on programs that help marine life as well as those that make science accessible to the public. As the impacts of these warming waters continue to unfold, the Aquarium of the Pacific will serve a pivotal role in directly responding to aid wildlife in need of rescue, as well as providing rehabilitation care and sanctuary for impacted animals when needed," said Jeff Flocken, Aquarium of the Pacific president and CEO.

Marine heat waves have also proven to have significant impacts on sea birds, causing sudden and severe declines in population. They experience starvation due to their food being too deep in the ocean. Many birds often don't return to their habitats after a heat wave event if they have left in search of food. California sea lions are an indicator species, meaning that they will be one of the first species, alongside birds and other species who will show signs of domoic acid toxicity, to respond to changes in their ecosystem and signal to the public how our oceans are doing. There will likely be an increase in sea lion strandings during a marine heat wave event, which affects sea lion pups as well.

The Aquarium of the Pacific supports disaster responses affecting birds and marine mammals. "We work with local organizations to respond to crises, assist with wildlife surveys in search and recovery efforts, and collect impacted wildlife in order for them to receive the care they need," said Brett Long, Aquarium of the Pacific vice president of animal care, birds and marine mammals. The Aquarium's community science volunteers also monitor plankton for ongoing research to help understand changing ocean systems and set into place a method for rapid response when harmful algal blooms are detected. The Aquarium's education department leads a whale photo identification program, which not only identifies individual whales, but also records important data about each sighting, including blue whales which are often seen off the Southern California coast.

The Aquarium's educators will also be sharing related NOAA data in near-real time such as sea surface temperatures with visitors at its Ocean Science Center. This section of the Aquarium features NOAA's Science on a Sphere®, a six-foot diameter rotating globe that can display NOAA and NASA satellite data in near-real time along with historical and prediction data. This summer the Aquarium of the Pacific is also launching a public campaign to share information on what numbers to call if you see marine animals stranded or in distress.

June 11 Press Briefing - Warming Waters