Issue Brief on “Food Security Risks in Pakistan Amid the Ongoing Middle East Crisis”

Introduction

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East particularly involving Iran, Israel, and the United States have once again underscored the strategic importance of global trade corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz. While widely recognized as a critical artery for oil and liquefied natural gas, its importance extends far beyond energy. The route also facilitates the movement of fertilizers, food commodities, and essential agricultural inputs that underpin global food systems. As a result, disruptions in this region have far-reaching implications that extend well beyond immediate conflict zones.

For Pakistan, these developments carry serious consequences. The country's economic and agricultural systems are structurally dependent on imports and highly sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity markets. External shocks whether in energy, fertilizer supply, or food trade quickly transmit into domestic inflation, agricultural stress, and food insecurity. This vulnerability is particularly concerning given Pakistan's already fragile food security situation. In 2025, approximately 11 million Pakistanis were estimated to be facing acute food insecurity, with millions more at risk due to climate shocks, inflation, and declining livelihoods.[1]

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