What Will Decide eBay Stock Over The Next Six Months

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eBay (EBAY) stock returned 23.8% over the past year, against 11.3% for the S&P 500. Buyers appear to be betting that its faster growth in 2026 lasts. Yet management expects trading-card growth to slow in 2027, so eBay has to keep growing beyond cards. Depop, the fashion marketplace eBay bought in July, must also grow fast enough to make up for keeping a smaller cut of each sale. Below are the events most likely to move eBay stock over the next six months.

Trading Cards After 2026

Management expects eBay's trading-card business to stay strong in fiscal 2027, but its plan assumes growth will slow as the company laps the extraordinary levels of 2026. Part of that arrives sooner. Fiscal Q4 2026 laps a very strong quarter a year earlier, helped by trading cards and bullion, management said. During fiscal Q3 2026, TCGplayer, eBay's separate card-game marketplace, passed $1 billion in twelve-month GMV, the value of goods sold on it, for the first time.

So far, eBay's growth extends beyond cards. Motors, fashion and refurbished goods all added materially to growth alongside collectibles in fiscal Q3 2026, management said. Yet excluding Depop and Tise, another business eBay recently bought, eBay's active buyers grew by just over 1%. eBay's February 2027 report will show whether motors, fashion and refurbished goods keep growing.

eBay's Depop Purchase

eBay completed its purchase of Depop on July 30, 2026. Management said eBay's take rate, the share of each sale it keeps as revenue, will stay under extra pressure until the purchase is a year old. Depop keeps a smaller share than eBay's main marketplace, and management expects Depop to add 4 percentage points to eBay's GMV growth in fiscal Q4 2026 but only 2 points to revenue growth.

Depop's growth is holding up. Its US GMV more than doubled from a year earlier in fiscal Q3 2026, and its newer users are buying and selling more than earlier ones. eBay's take rate is the measure to watch in the February 2027 report.

Fourth-Quarter Results In February

eBay is expected to report its fiscal Q4 2026 results in February 2027, and management has already guided to slower growth. It expects revenue to grow 7% to 9% excluding currency moves, against 13% on that basis in fiscal Q3 2026, the company said.

That guide includes Depop. Without it, management expects organic growth of 5% to 7%. A switch to booking UK shipping revenue net rather than gross also hits eBay's take rate harder in fiscal Q4 2026 than earlier in the year, management said. Organic revenue growth against that guide is the number to watch in February 2027.

Can You Hold eBay Through February?

Holding eBay into a February report has meant sitting through a sharp fall before. The stock's worst fall of the past year was 17.3%, from January 15 to February 12, 2026, ending days before eBay's February 18, 2026 earnings call.

Depop's growth is showing up so far, while eBay's growth once trading cards cool has yet to be tested. If a repeat of that fall would push you to sell, your stake is larger than one you could hold through the February 2027 report.

How To Act On EBAY?

Now you know eBay better. Our purpose is to inform you so you can decide for yourself, and acting on one stock, in either direction, carries its own risk.

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