FEFAC 3rd update on EUDR soy trade disruption and economic impact assessment

FEFAC published its 3rd EUDR Trade disruption and economic assessment update based on the revised EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) on critical soy supplies for feed use in 2027. Direct extra procurement costs are estimated at up to 1.65 Bio € for EUDR-compliant soy used in EU feed. Indirect costs for other Hi-Pro protein sources may lead to a total cost increase for Hi-Pro feed ingredients of 2,4 Bio € for the calendar year 2027, as quotations for rapeseed meal and sunflower meal are linked to SBM prices.

This could trigger higher costs for pigmeat production of up to 70€/ton and up to 25 €/ton of poultry meat, in a context of weaker EU livestock markets, which may seriously undermine the competitiveness of EU livestock production.

FEFAC noted a slight improvement on the EUDR-related trade disruption risk for Brazil, as the key soy exporter to the EU, with more than 50% market share for total EU soybean and soybean meal imports of 33 million tons (MY 2024/2025). Other key origins from North America and Argentina, as well as Europe (incl EU, Ukraine and Serbia) are considered low-risk for trade disruption.

FEFAC therefore urges EU institutions and national authorities to use existing and future EU FTAs (eg MERCOSUR, CETA, DCFTA Ukraine, and future EU/US agreement), confirming longstanding 0- tariff schedules for soybean meal imports, in order to facilitate bilateral agreements on mutual recognition of EUDR legality certification programmes. This is a precondition to ensure a continuous supply of critical soy products to the EU, strengthening the resilience and competitiveness of the EU feed and livestock sector. Meanwhile, FEFAC stresses the need to maintain a level playing field via balanced and pragmatic implementation measures for the FTA and the EUDR, avoiding significant adverse impacts on the competitiveness of the EU livestock sector.

FEFAC President Pedro Cordero commented: "Our sector is committed to continue delivering deforestation-free feed value chains, by managing successfully the implementation of our FEFAC responsible soy sourcing guidelines and benchmark programme facilitated by ITC for the past 10 years. We believe that fully traceable, EUDR-compatible Chain of Custody solutions can assist all soy value chain operators with the implementation of the EUDR to secure reliable, verifiable deforestation-free soy supplies to our EU farmer customers."

Read the full 3rd impact assessment