05/07/2025 | News release | Distributed by Public on 05/07/2025 15:25
Intro
Commercial bank loans and leases reached fresh record highs for the tenth week in a row through April 26th, according to the latest H.8 release from the Federal Reserve. The year-to-date trajectory is above its comparative periods of 2023 and 2024 but could be the result of pull-forward dynamics related to policy uncertainty, similar to what we have seen in other economic data recently. However, if changes in fiscal policy start to have a meaningful negative impact on future economic expectations, we would expect this data to likely turn lower in the next few months. Therefore, we will be watching the direction and pace of loan growth across banks for evidence that their ability or willingness to lend is expanding or shrinking as one indication of their expectations for economic activity.
Growth
The Signals:
The Takeaway:
Visuals:
(Chart 1)
Source: Macrobond
(Chart 2)
Source: Macrobond
(Chart 3)
Source: Macrobond
Market Trends:
Source: Macrobond
The views expressed herein are presented for informational purposes only and are not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or security or as a promise of future performance. The information, opinions, and views contained herein are current only as of the date hereof and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.
Investment Strategist
Boyd Watterson Asset Management, LLC