New Ellucian U.S. Higher Education Systems Report Identifies Key Factors Driving Risk and Resilience

Key Highlights

• Research from Ellucian finds governance and execution capabilities are stronger predictors of long-term system resilience than institution size or funding levels.
• Nearly half of the 91 public higher education systems analyzed are already experiencing financial distress, while many others are showing signs of moving toward it.
• The report provides a practical framework to help system leaders, governing boards, and policymakers identify risk earlier and strengthen institutional resilience.

RESTON, VA - Ellucian, the leading higher education technology solutions provider, today released a new report, Risk and Resiliency in U.S. University and College Systems, finding that the long-term resilience of public higher education systems is shaped less by structural advantages than by their ability to translate governance into action. The report offers a practical framework to help leaders identify emerging risks earlier and strengthen resilience before financial pressures lead to structural decline.

Drawing on institutional performance data, governance assessments, state policy analysis, recovery strategies and operational data, the report analyzes 91 U.S. public university and community college systems serving approximately 15 million students across nearly 1,200 institutions. Authored by Dr. Dan Greenstein, Ellucian's Chief of Industry Transformation and former Chancellor of the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education, it takes a system-level view of public higher education, examining the factors that distinguish resilient systems from those becoming increasingly vulnerable.

"Our report reframes some of the long-held assumptions about what drives resilience in public higher education," said Dr. Dan Greenstein, Chief of Industry Transformation, Ellucian. "The central finding is that true resilience is governed, not inherited. What distinguishes the systems adapting most successfully is their ability to translate governance into coordinated action through strong leadership, operational capability and institutional discipline. They are not necessarily the largest or the best funded, but they are the ones best equipped to recognize emerging risks and respond before those risks become structural."

Key Findings

The report identifies six overarching findings shaping the future of U.S. public higher education systems:

• Risk is unevenly distributed: Of the 91 systems analyzed, 39 are already experiencing some form of distress, including 34 with simultaneous enrollment and operating margin weakness - a pattern the report identifies as most predictive of structural decline.
• Governance is the strongest predictor of resilience: Systems that effectively coordinate strategy, finances, operations and decision-making consistently outperform peers regardless of size or enrollment.
• Capability matters more than authority: Most high-risk systems already possess the authority to respond but lack the operational capacity, integrated data, and execution capabilities needed to act effectively.
• Funding strategy outweighs funding levels: The analysis found that long-term funding strategies including restoration of post-recession investments and funding formula design are more closely associated with resilience than current per-student funding levels alone.
• Cost reductions alone cannot reverse decline: While operational efficiencies buy time, the report finds that sustainable recovery depends on rebuilding enrollment demand, improving completion, and better aligning credentials with workforce needs.
• Intervention sequencing matters: Systems are more likely to succeed when they stabilize operations before pursuing structural transformation, and when they act before financial pressures narrow their available options.

Turning Insight into Action

Rather than simply diagnosing today's challenges, Risk and Resiliency in U.S. University and College Systems provides a practical framework to help governing boards, system leaders, policymakers, and higher education stakeholders identify emerging risks earlier, prioritize effective interventions, and strengthen long-term institutional resilience before today's challenges become tomorrow's structural barriers.

Download the full report

ABOUT THE RESEARCH

Risk and Resiliency in U.S. University and College Systems analyzes 91 public university and community college systems representing approximately 15 million students across nearly 1,200 institutions. The report integrates institutional performance data, governance assessments, state policy analysis, financial recovery strategies, and operational information using publicly available sources, including IPEDS, audited financial statements, state budgets, statutes, board materials, and other public records. Additional details on the methodology are available in the full report.