As we approach the November election, Proposition 36-which would increase penalties for some theft and drug crimes-garners the most interest and support among California likely voters. In the presidential race, the Democratic ticket leads by a wide margin, with 56% satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates. Last week, survey analyst Deja Thomas and associate survey director Dean Bonner discussed these and other key findings from PPIC's September survey.

Seven in ten likely voters say they would vote yes on Prop 36, including more than six in ten across demographic groups, party lines, and regions of the state, said Thomas. Forty-one percent say that the outcome of the vote on Prop 36 is very important to them, the highest share for any of the upcoming ballot measures. In addition, more than six in ten likely voters support Prop 3 (constitutional right to marriage), Prop 4 ($10 billion climate bond), and Prop 35 (Medi-Cal funding).

At the top of the ticket, 60% of California likely voters favor Kamala Harris/Tim Walz over Donald Trump/JD Vance (29%). Compared to when Biden was the Democratic presidential candidate, support has risen markedly among independents, Latinos, residents with household incomes under $40,000, and younger residents ages 18 to 44, said Bonner. In the race for the open US Senate seat, 63% favor Democrat Adam Schiff, while 35% support Republican Steve Garvey.

California is home to several highly contested congressional districts that will have an outsized impact on partisan control of the House of Representatives. In these districts-located primarily in the Central Valley, the Inland Empire, and Orange County-55% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 41% favor the Republican candidate.

The survey covered opinions of the electoral process as well. Facing a presidential election that will likely be decided by swing states, seven in ten say they would support selecting a president by direct popular vote rather than the Electoral College. When it comes to California's system of direct democracy, 87% agree that citizens' initiatives bring up important public policy issues, but strong majorities also agree that the wording is often too confusing and that there are too many propositions on the state ballot, said Thomas.

Roughly seven in ten likely voters are more interested in politics this year than in 2020, including about six in ten or more across partisan groups. There have also been notable improvements on several metrics that the PPIC survey has followed over time. "Governor Newsom, the state legislature, President Biden, and Congress all received their highest approval rating of 2024 in this survey," said Bonner. Views on the direction of the state and nation as well as perceptions of both major political parties have also become more positive-with potential political implications as the election nears.

Stay tuned to the PPIC Statewide Survey as we continue to track Californians' political outlook and views on candidates, ballot measures, and other critical issues of the day.