Is Texas Pacific Land Stock About To Rebound

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Texas Pacific Land (TPL) stock has lost 23.4%, dividends included, since April 27, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 7.6%. If you own the shares, the worry is that the slide has further to go. Yet the stock is back near a price it has bounced from before. How much have those bounces paid, and how much could the next one make you?

How Much Have Texas Pacific Land's Bounces Paid?

Texas Pacific Land's best bounce from this price paid 78.3%. It started from a close of $323.49 on October 3, 2024, and peaked 50 days later. A second climb sent the stock up 67.7% in 55 days from a $321.83 close on January 13, 2026.

Those are the bounces that worked. Since October 22, 2024, the price has fallen back to this level from above five times. Just one of those attempts gained 20% before losing 5%, two lost 5% first, and two have gone neither way so far. This count covers the last two years, starting while the October 2024 bounce was still underway.

A $10,000 purchase today would be worth $12,200 if the stock reaches resistance, where a rally stalled once before. A repeat of the October 2024 bounce would make that same $10,000 worth $17,830. Reaching resistance would take a smaller rise than either of the two past bounces. Yet with more recent visits losing 5% than gaining 20%, and an operating margin that has slipped for two straight years, the bigger figure is not the one to count on. Rallies have also stalled lower down, at $363.89 and $382.77.

Texas Pacific Land's Sales Are Growing Faster Than Before

Revenue rose 31.2% from a year earlier to $246 million in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended June 30. Over the twelve months to June 2026, revenue grew 20.8%, finishing well above the 7.8% average of the three twelve-month periods before it. On the August 6, 2026 call, management said oil and gas royalty production was up 20% from a year earlier.

Margins have not kept up. The twelve-month operating margin fell from 79.0% in the year to June 2024 to 75.9% in the year to June 2025. It slipped again to 74.9% in the year to June 2026. The latest quarter was better, though, coming in at 78.0% against 76.6% a year earlier.

The shares are cheaper than they were. At 42.5 times the last twelve months of earnings, the stock trades below the 55.8 times it fetched on the same earnings at the end of June.

Management is also chasing work beyond oil and gas. An earlier land sale and water supply agreement was tied to Project Kilby, a large-scale power generation facility Chevron is developing for a customer data center in Reeves County, Texas. Management said it would be disappointed not to announce one or more major definitive agreements in the near term. That remains a hope, however, not a signed deal.

What Could Push Texas Pacific Land Below Support?

September trading shows how quickly a visit to this price can turn into a loss. A visit that began on September 16, 2026, had fallen 5% by September 29 to $328.70, though that remained above the line where support counts as broken. The visit that began on October 15 has gone neither way yet. On the business side, water is where the company looks weakest. Water sales volumes fell 19% from the prior quarter in fiscal Q2 2026, though they were still 38% higher than a year earlier. Management said weak natural gas prices in the basin hit those volumes, as operators shifted some development away from the Delaware Basin.

If the stock falls below $316.79, support counts as broken. The next support level under that is $304.81, 8.6% below today's price.

For buying near support to be worth the risk of a break, water sales need to recover while royalties keep growing. Water sales volumes are the number to watch when Texas Pacific Land reports in November 2026.

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