Measuring citizen engagement amid AI and big data revolution

Statistics Norway, with support from UNDP and UN Women, leads a Task Team of national statisticians and data experts established by the Praia City Group on Governance Statistics to develop internationally relevant and robust methodologies to measure political participation. Since 2022, sixteen statistical offices from countries as diverse as the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Slovak Republic, Mexico and Tunisia have been working together to design and test an international survey module that aims to provide a precise picture of how people are - or not - engaging with their political system. We are not starting from scratch. Statistics Norway, for instance, has more than fifty years of experience carrying out biannual election surveys covering both national and local elections.

We believe this is important work for several reasons. First, engaging national statistical offices in this area will help ensure that data on political participation is accurate and trustworthy. Official statistics are gathered using standardized and rigorous methodologies, which is not always the case with other types of unofficial sources of data. In an era where disinformation is turbo-charging political polarization, official statistics are needed more than ever before to help provide verifiable, authoritative data. Moreover, in contexts where doubts about electoral integrity may arise, trusted official statistics can serve as a key countermeasure to maintain the credibility of the electoral process. This will be a key topic for discussion at a special side event of the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on Sustainable Development Goals Indicators, which convened in Oslo from 21-23 October, co-hosted by the UNDP Global Policy Centre for Governance and Statistics Norway.

Second, official statistics are inclusive of all segments of society. They can tell us with a high level of precision how participation varies across age, gender, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and geography. For example, if official statistics show that young people or certain minority groups faced certain problems on voting day, this can lead to targeted measures to address these disparities. This is a particularly powerful feature of official statistics, which AI models feeding on biased or incomplete datasets fail to live up to.

Thirdly, official statistics offer the only sustainable option to support evidence-based policymaking in this area over the longer term. Since official statistics are collected regularly, they can enable the tracking of political participation trends over time, and across regions, cities or countries. This longitudinal data is essential for countries to have the means to promptly identify and respond to shifts in political engagement, especially when it comes to capturing new forms of civic engagement beyond voting that citizens find effective, and that governments may wish to further invest in.

Even if we live in an age where numbers rain down on us on a daily basis - from Big Data to AI-generated statistics - we believe that more official statistics are needed - not less. Especially on a topic like citizen participation which is so central to a country's social and political development. Because official statistics are based on the lived experiences of 'real people' and this helps to enhance the quality of this data, and its trustworthiness. Action by policymakers is much more likely then.