Geopolitical Analyst Predicts a Future of Change for Farmers

By Lura Roti

When geopolitical analyst and podcaster Jacob Shapiro discussed the future of agriculture with farmers and ranchers during the 110^th South Dakota Farmers Union State Convention, the picture he painted was not a rosy one.

"I'm here to tell you that I don't think we are going through a cyclical downturn. I think we are going through a fundamental structural change to how global agricultural markets work," Shapiro said. "I think everything we know about cycles before we need to throw out the window. We need to think about the world as it is, and as it is changing around us now."

Shapiro pointed to the fact that unlike the U.S., which as of 2017 has been importing more food than we export, the rest of the world is working to become more self-sufficient. "All around us, countries are starting to behave a little differently. They're actually looking for alternative sources or they're trying to become more self-sufficient. … "Inda has almost doubled their pulse production over the last 20 years. Even though most experts said that it was not possible (for India to grow more lentils and chickpeas). So, even as we are importing more food from abroad the rest of the world is producing more food for itself and this is eating into our export market share."

Shapiro explained the dynamic shift is possible because we now, "live in a multipolar world."

"I don't care how long you've been farming. I don't care how many books you've read. None of you in this room have lived in a multipolar, geopolitical context for the last 40 years, we have lived in a unipolar world. The buck literally stopped with us. We were the dominant cultural, economic, military, trade, security, power. You name it. We were the top dog. Everybody listened to us. … But when you're thinking about the world going forward, I want you to stop thinking about the world as one, undifferentiated marketplace, where countries send out product and people buy it, without recourse to politics. Because that's not what's happening."

Taking a 70-year step back in history, Shapiro said before the U.S. was the dominating world power, we lived in a time of bipolar world, "You had the Soviet Union on one side, you had the United States on the other side. Capitalism versus Communism, and everybody had to fall in line."

To emphasize his point, Shapiro noted the global shift in the value of the dollar. "The world is telling you with their money that the dollar is not top anymore and that they are looking for alternatives."

Shapiro explained the U.S. is losing its global influence as U.S. tariffs and leadership's bold criticism of NATO allies continues to drive a wedge between America and the rest of the world. "Nobody's listening to us. And countries that we go too far with are looking to China and other sources."

Because the U.S. imports nearly all its electronics and more than 50 percent of its medical treatments and pharmaceuticals - Shapiro said consumers will not fare well if the countries we depend upon decide to close their doors.

What do egg and beef producers have in common? Shapiro explained that they understand "America First," is not a campaign promise that is being followed. "When egg prices spiked at the beginning of the Trump Administration, if you're an egg farmer, you're thinking, "finally, this is going to be the year where I can put some money away." What does the Trump Administration do in response? It decides to import millions of eggs from Turkey and South Korea. … How about beef?'"

Understanding his audience, Shapiro let the question hang in the air for a few seconds. "You guys know the data probably better than I do," he said to the many Farmers Union members who raise cattle.

Energy and niche markets

Understanding that the data, historical analysis and future predictions he shared with South Dakota family farmers and ranchers were not optimistic, Shapiro did have a few "silver linings" to share. These focused on raising crops for energy and niche markets.
"If I'm right about this, our energy growth consumption is going up…and we're going to want to keep those energy prices as low as we possibly can."