Nations Are Scrambling for AI Sovereignty. Bitcoin Miners Hold the Keys.

Whoever has the largest AI ecosystem will set global AI standards and reap broad economic and military benefits.

~The White House, July 2025

What a week this was! On Tuesday, I participated in a panel at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, where I discussed why Bitcoin miners have a head start in the race for AI compute.

One point I made that drew strong agreement is that AI is not a bubble, as some people claim. This is real technology being deployed in life-or-death situations. The example I pointed out is that the Pentagon used Anthropic's Claude AI model (through its partnership with Palantir) in the military operation to capture Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro. Zero American soldiers were killed.

By Wednesday, members of our BUZZ HPC team were at the DiscoveryX conference in Toronto, where Geoffrey Hinton-the Nobel laureate known as the "godfather of AI"- delivered a keynote on the history of AI, and where it could be headed.

Between the two events, a single theme emerged: sovereign AI.

It's a concept I believe every investor needs to understand. And it may represent one of the largest investment opportunities of the decade.

What Is Sovereign AI? And Why Now?

Sovereign AI refers to a nation's ability to develop and control its own AI infrastructure. I'm referring to the data centers, compute power, energy and talent needed to build and run AI systems domestically, rather than relying on a handful of corporations.

The urgency is easy to understand when you look at the concentration of power. As the UK's Technology Secretary Liz Kendall pointed out this week, 70% of global AI compute is now controlled by just five tech companies. In a speech, she called for a "decisive move" toward British AI self-sufficiency, arguing that nations that fail to master the defining technology of the time risk ceding control over both their security and economic future.

Britian isn't alone. Canada just announced a $2 billion Sovereign AI Compute Strategy to build domestic capacity. Days later, Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled the Canada Strong Fund, a $25 billion sovereign wealth fund targeting critical infrastructure, including energy and minerals.

Indeed, it's estimated that between 30% and 40% of all global AI spending could be influenced by sovereignty requirements, representing a potential market of $500 billion to $600 billion by 2030, according to McKinsey.

The Commodity Squeeze Behind the AI Boom

What makes this story especially relevant to commodity and resource investors is that sovereign AI ambitions are colliding with hard physical constraints.

Consider the scale of what's being built. In the first quarter of this year, Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta-the four largest hyperscalers-spent a combined $130 billion, largely on data centers. This marked a 71% increase from a year earlier. All four companies indicated they're planning to spend even more, with total outlays on track to reach roughly $700 billion this year.

You can't will this type of infrastructure into existence, though. AI-optimized data centers require 100 to 500 megawatts of power, enough to run entire cities. Each megawatt of data center capacity requires approximately 27 tons of copper for wiring and cooling, and copper continues to trade at historically high prices.

Bromine, essential for circuit etching, has surged to $12,000 per metric ton. Meanwhile, helium, critical for cooling semiconductor wafers, has seen spot prices double after Iran bombed Qatari LNG facilities, which produce a third of the world's supply.

Why Bitcoin Miners Hold the Keys

This is exactly the thesis I laid out in February, and since then, the sovereign AI wave has only intensified.

Bitcoin miners already control the scarce physical inputs-power contracts, land, cooling systems, substations-that nations now desperately need to build domestic AI capacity. And because the critical infrastructure is already in place, miners can cut data center deployment times by as much as 75% compared to traditional builders.

The market has validated this. Public Bitcoin miners have signed over $70 billion in AI and high-performance computing contracts with hyperscalers. According to CoinShares, AI infrastructure can generate three times the revenue per megawatt compared to mining. An estimated 70% of mining companies have now pivoted to include AI in their portfolios.

At HIVE Digital Technologies, we made this move early with the launch of Buzz HPC, which operates sovereign AI cloud services in Canada and the Nordics, two regions with natural advantages in renewable energy, climate-friendly cooling and available land.

Follow the Money

I often tell investors to follow the money, and right now, the money's flowing into AI infrastructure at a pace we've never seen. Data center construction spending is projected to rise 23% this year, even as offices, hotels and warehouses decline. Sovereign wealth funds are increasingly deploying capital across the AI value chain, from energy and real estate to chips and cloud services.

For investors, the sovereign AI boom is creating, what I believe, is a generational opportunity. Bitcoin miners didn't just see this coming. We built for it.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was xxxx, up xx.x%. According to UBS, Bombardier reported $360 million of free cash flow (FCF) in 1Q, far exceeding expectations, and raised its 2026 FCF estimate to $1.12 billion versus guidance for greater than $1 billion on stronger orders and customer advances. This supports further deleveraging and reinforces management's view that Bombardier is now a consistently cash-generative business, which they believe supports a re-rating of the stock.
• The Hormuz closure is impacting tanker flows, with April Middle East exports significantly down year-over-year (YoY), while U.S. crude exports are up 10% YoY in mid-April as strategic reserve releases are exported. Extreme Middle East very large crude carrier (VLCC) rates at $400,000-$500,000 per day, supported by war risk premiums, are expected to normalize as Hormuz reopens, according to Bank of America.
• General Dynamics reported earnings per share of $4.10, $0.43 above consensus. Free cash flow (FCF) was $2 billion in the quarter, and the company holds $3.7 billion in cash. Aerospace revenue increased 8% YoY, with 38 deliveries in the quarter-the highest in its history-driven by strong performance from the G700 and G800 programs. The company reported a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2x and reaffirmed full-year guidance of $16.45-$16.55.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing airline stock for the week was xxxx, down xx.x%. United Airlines stated that a potential merger with American Airlines is "off the table for the foreseeable future." According to UBS, this previously viewed "long shot" merger would likely need to be pursued under the current regulatory environment to have any chance of approval.
• Shipping rates fell 1.1% this week on European routes, marking the fourth consecutive week-over-week (WoW) decline. Leading indicators suggest further declines in the coming weeks.
• Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte reported consolidated average revenue per passenger down 1% year-over-year (YoY). Meanwhile, cash costs were higher by 10% YoY, leading first quarter EBITDA to increase 2% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 73.4%, according to Goldman Sachs.

Opportunities

• According to JPMorgan Chase, Japan Airlines guides fiscal year 2026 EBIT to decline 7.4% year-over-year (YoY) to ¥180 billion (Bloomberg consensus estimate: ¥141.9 billion). This is unchanged from the ¥180 billion EBIT target released in March. Earnings have been reported better than expected.
• Dry bulk demand increased 5% YoY in the first quarter of 2026, according to Clarksons, driven by very strong grain flows. Checks suggest some disruptions during the early stages of the war, but flows have sequentially improved in April. Coal shipments could rise further due to energy substitution in the coming months, according to Bank of America.
• According to JPMorgan Chase, North American private jet flight activity increased 8% YoY in March, while European activity increased 5% YoY. Argus data shows this was driven by fractional flights, which were higher by 14%, while charter and Part 91 flights increased 7% and 5%, respectively. Growth in private aviation is supported by multiple factors, including travel to second homes, increased preference for private travel post-COVID, added flexibility, favorable tax treatment allowing aircraft to be written off in year one, stock market gains, and shorter security lines.

Threats

• Per weekend media reports, the CEOs of a group of budget airlines met with the administration to discuss a potential $2.5 billion aid package in exchange for warrants convertible into shares. The proposed rescue plan would be separate from the $500 million bailout of Spirit Airlines, according to the report.
• UPS stock is down 3% after the company reported a slight first quarter 2026 earnings beat, as international performance offset weaker-than-expected domestic results, while maintaining its 2026 outlook. Investors had expected the company to raise guidance rather than hold it steady following the beat, according to Bank of America.
• Delta Air Lines has continued to reduce second quarter 2026 capacity, with scheduled domestic growth lower by 50 basis points week-over-week (WoW) to 2.0%, and third quarter 2026 reduced by 30 basis points to 3.1%. This aligns with management commentary from first quarter 2026 earnings, which guided to flat second quarter system growth. In Europe, Lufthansa has been the most aggressive in managing capacity, reducing second quarter 2026 capacity by 2.5%, according to Bank of America. Qantas also announced first quarter 2027 capacity cuts of 5% for domestic and 2% for international versus its original February guidance.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Sabastian Sawe won the London Marathon on April 27, 2026, finishing in an astonishing 1:59:30 to become the first athlete to break the two-hour barrier in an official race. Sawe achieved this milestone while wearing the Adidas Adizero Adios Pro Evo 3, a cutting-edge racing shoe designed for maximum speed and efficiency, further cementing Adidas' reputation for innovation in elite distance running.
• Royal Caribbean Group reported strong first quarter results overall, particularly in profitability and demand. Earnings beat expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.60 versus $3.20 expected. However, the outlook was mixed, mainly due to rising fuel costs and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
• Vail Resorts, a holding company offering entertainment and mountain resort services, was the best-performing name in the S&P Global Luxury Index over the past five days, with shares rising 5.8% despite the absence of any specific company announcements.

Weaknesses

• Inflation in the Eurozone is rising while economic growth is slowing. Consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.0% in April, compared with 2.6% in the prior period. In the first quarter, European Union (EU) gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1%, undershooting expectations of 0.2%; year-over-year (YoY) growth was 0.8%, also below the 0.9% forecast. Higher energy prices are contributing to upward pressure on inflation while weighing on economic growth.
• China's services activity has recently weakened, with the latest official non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which includes services, falling to 49.4 in April 2026, down from March and below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. This indicates that service-sector activity is now contracting rather than growing, reflecting softer domestic demand and broader economic headwinds.
• Rivian Automotive was the worst-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index, with shares down about 8.2% over the past five days following its first quarter earnings release. While results beat expectations, the stock fell due to ongoing losses and heavy reliance on Amazon, which accounts for more than half of Rivian's automotive revenue. Investor sentiment was further pressured by a reduced U.S. Department of Energy loan for its Georgia factory and uncertainty around the R2, Rivian's new lower-priced SUV intended to drive future growth.

Opportunities

• Luxury stocks have come under pressure, with the S&P Global Luxury Index down about 9% year-to-date (YTD) and shares of LVMH falling more than 20%. This pullback has left valuations looking more attractive, creating a potential buying opportunity for investors. If geopolitical tensions ease and energy costs stabilize, the sector could see a rebound as demand for high-end goods recovers and investor sentiment improves.
• CEO of Hilton Worldwide, Christopher Nassetta, highlighted early signs of a more balanced U.S. consumer environment, noting that lower- and middle-income spending is beginning to recover as the economy converges. He described this shift as a "C-shaped economy" and sees it as an opportunity for improving performance in lower- and mid-tier segments, with demand broadening beyond luxury and upper-upscale travel over the remainder of the year.
• Chow Tai Fook, a leading Chinese jewelry maker and distributor, is expanding beyond its traditional jewelry business into new luxury lifestyle segments. The company is launching a premium home décor line and opening its first global flagship store, strengthening its brand presence worldwide. Additionally, Chow Tai Fook's new "Charm Your Path" personalization experience in Hong Kong invites customers to create custom charm bracelets based on personality traits and astrological profiles.

Threats

• Recent data from Gallup shows that 55% of Americans say their personal finances are getting worse, the highest level recorded since tracking began in 2001. This reflects a sustained trend of rising pessimism over the past several years, alongside broader negative views on the economy. Overall, a clear majority of Americans currently feel financially worse off rather than better.
• Rising inflation expectations in the European Union are becoming a risk to consumer spending, based on data released this week by the European Central Bank. Households now expect inflation to reach 4.0% over the next 12 months, up sharply from 2.5% previously, while three-year expectations rose to 3.0% and five-year expectations to 2.4%, all above the ECB's 2% target.
• Oil prices are rising again mainly due to supply uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East. Higher oil acts like a tax on consumers-fuel and travel costs increase-so it can weigh on the luxury and travel sectors, as households may reduce discretionary spending such as high-end shopping and international trips, while airlines and hotels also face higher operating costs.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was WTI crude, rallying 7.XX%. Oil prices surged as the U.S.-Iran conflict showed no signs of resolution, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since late February. The sustained supply shock is creating a strong margin expansion backdrop for major oil and gas producers, as elevated crude prices flow to the bottom line while U.S. exporters capture record premiums filling the void left by disrupted Persian Gulf flows.

• Nickel surged to its highest level in nearly two years, rising 2.5% to $19,495 per ton, driven by Indonesia cutting mining quotas and the Iran war fueling a global sulfur shortage, which is squeezing supply of a key reagent used in nickel processing. Indonesia, which accounts for well over half of global nickel production due to significant Chinese smelter investment, has reduced quotas to support prices, while war-related disruptions are also raising concerns about mixed-hydroxide precipitate output in Indonesia and copper leaching operations in Africa.
• Hudbay Minerals reported strong first quarter 2026 results, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.40 versus the $0.34 estimate, revenue of $757.3 million (up 27% year-over-year) exceeding the $688.1 million consensus, and adjusted EBITDA of $421.9 million (up 47% year-over-year), marking a record quarter. Higher copper and gold prices drove the outperformance, with gold accounting for 39% of gross revenue, despite slightly lower production volumes for copper, gold, and zinc compared to the prior year.

Weaknesses

• The weakest performing commodity of the week was natural gas, falling 5.xx%. Bringing new projects into production remains challenging, as South32 reported rising costs at its Arizona zinc-lead-silver project due to tariffs, inflation, higher input expenses, and contractor issues. The company now estimates the Taylor deposit will cost $3.3 billion to develop, nearly double the original $1.7 billion estimate.
• The Trump administration's $12 billion Project Vault will initially source critical minerals globally, including from China, before shifting to a domestic-first replenishment model, highlighting a contradiction in the U.S. strategy to reduce reliance on Chinese minerals. For commodity markets, the program's demand-driven structure could create a near-term price floor for critical minerals such as rare earths and cobalt, while longer-term domestic preference may support U.S. and allied producers.
• Linde shares declined after the company narrowed its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance to $17.60-$17.90 and flagged ongoing helium and rare gas pricing headwinds, assuming no helium price improvement in 2026. Free cash flow was $898 million, well below the $1.46 billion estimate, reflecting broader weakness across chemicals, energy, and metals and mining end markets.

Opportunities

• France is laying the groundwork for a nuclear revival, with Orano doubling its Pierrelatte engineering workforce to 600 and EDF's Arabelle Solutions committing €100 million to a new heat exchanger factory for the EPR2 reactor program. These moves signal a push toward energy sovereignty ahead of a planned 2027 construction start for up to 14 new reactors.
• Pakistan is set to receive its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo in roughly two months, as the Seapeak Magellan, carrying a shipment from the U.S. Sabine Pass export terminal, is expected to arrive by month-end. The cargo was purchased from TotalEnergies via tender, with pricing negotiated down from $18.88 per MMBtu to the mid-$18 range, following a halt in imports since early March due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
• New York has launched a new renewable energy solicitation round to advance large onshore wind, solar, and hydro projects ready for construction. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority emphasized the need to support onshore renewables amid political headwinds, with the process aiming to capture expiring federal tax credits. Key deadlines for eligibility and evaluation run from May through July, with conditional awards expected in September.

Threats

• Chile's new president, José Antonio Kast, faces a fiscal dilemma over state-owned miner Codelco. The government relies on dividends to support the budget while cutting taxes, but Codelco needs to retain earnings to manage its $25 billion debt load-about five times earnings, the highest among major copper producers. Investors remain optimistic, with Codelco bonds outperforming peers since Kast's December election, though analysts expect support to come through refinancing flexibility rather than direct balance sheet relief.
• CMOC Group has secured a $1.7 billion foothold in Ecuador's El Oro province, expanding China's presence in South America's copper and gold resources. The move underscores China's growing influence over global supply chains and its deepening role in Latin American mining.
• Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have acquired a stake in a Kazakhstan tungsten project backed by $1.6 billion in U.S. government support, raising questions about potential conflicts and the credibility of U.S. critical minerals strategy. The stake was acquired via a shell company in Skyline Builders, which recently merged with Cove Kaz Capital Group. The combined entity, Kaz Resources, will operate tungsten assets in Central Kazakhstan and trade on Nasdaq under the ticker "KAZR".

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Anchorage Digital, the first federally chartered crypto bank in the U.S., is expanding its stablecoin issuance platform through a partnership with M0, which enables institutions to create and manage customizable stablecoins. The collaboration reflects deeper integration between crypto and traditional finance as firms seek regulated digital dollar issuance. As frameworks like the GENIUS Act advance, stablecoins are increasingly positioned as core financial infrastructure across payments, fintech, and digital markets.
• Polymarket is strengthening market credibility through a partnership with Chainalysis, which tracks and analyzes on-chain transactions. The collaboration enables real-time monitoring for insider trading and manipulation, moving oversight closer to Wall Street standards. By combining blockchain transparency with advanced analytics, the partnership highlights crypto's evolution toward greater trust and institutional adoption.
• Meta Platforms is advancing crypto adoption by allowing creators to receive payouts in USDC, a dollar-backed stablecoin, directly to digital wallets. Payments are supported on high-speed blockchains like Solana and Polygon, with infrastructure from Stripe. The move brings stablecoins into a platform with billions of users, underscoring their growing role in global payments and creator monetization.

Weaknesses

• Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness as it struggles to break above the $80,000 level, where investors may be taking profits. Futures open interest fell 2% to $119 billion, while trading volumes rose 26%, suggesting position unwinding rather than new risk-taking. More than $500 million in leveraged bets have been liquidated, mostly bullish positions, as rising bond yields and oil prices near $110 pressure risk assets. Overall, the data points to limited conviction and fragile momentum.
• Wasabi Protocol was exploited for $4.5 million after attackers compromised a single admin key. The incident adds to a broader trend, with over $605 million lost across at least 12 decentralized finance (DeFi) hacks this month and more than $770 million in total losses so far in 2026. The exploit, driven by missing safeguards such as multisignature controls and timelocks, highlights persistent security weaknesses undermining trust in DeFi.
• ARK Invest signaled weakening crypto momentum by selling $6.1 million of its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings while increasing its position in Robinhood. At the same time, Robinhood reported roughly a 50% drop in crypto trading volumes and revenue, with shares falling 13.2% after earnings. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw $137.8 million in net outflows in a single day, pointing to softer investor demand. Overall, the data reflects cooling activity across the crypto ecosystem.

Opportunities

• Gemini, a U.S.-based crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, is expanding into derivatives after receiving approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate its own clearinghouse. This allows the firm to control trade execution end-to-end and scale products such as perpetual futures, tapping a segment that drives a majority of crypto trading volumes. The announcement lifted shares 2.5% premarket and reflects a broader industry shift toward derivatives as exchanges seek more stable, less cyclical revenue beyond spot trading.
• Coinbase is expanding into institutional finance through its asset management arm with a stablecoin credit fund offering tokenized shares via Superstate, which enables traditional investment funds to be issued on blockchain. The product provides exposure to on-chain lending and private credit, reflecting growing convergence between traditional finance and digital assets. This comes as stablecoin supply has doubled to $300 billion and monthly transaction volumes have reached $1.2 trillion, underscoring accelerating adoption. The move highlights tokenization as a key channel for bringing traditional financial products on-chain and expanding institutional access.

• AllUnity, a joint venture backed by DWS Group, Flow Traders, and Galaxy Digital, is expanding its euro-backed stablecoin EURAU to the Solana, a high-speed blockchain used for payments and trading. Issued under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework, the token enables faster and lower-cost cross-border transactions. The move comes as euro-denominated stablecoins have doubled to nearly $1 billion since early 2025, with projections reaching €570 billion by 2030, highlighting growing demand for non-U.S. dollar digital assets.

Threats

• Polymarket is facing growing scrutiny after new research analyzing over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in volume found patterns consistent with potential insider trading. In military-related bets, low-probability wagers show success rates above 50%, far above the typical ~14%, while fewer than 1% of wallets capture nearly half of all profits. The concentration of gains and potential information asymmetries raise concerns about market fairness and integrity, increasing the risk of tighter regulation and undermining trust in prediction markets.
• The crypto industry is facing escalating security risks, with hack-related losses surpassing $630 million across more than 25 incidents in April alone, marking the worst month since early 2025. Major exploits, including attacks on KelpDAO ($293 million) and Drift Protocol ($280 million), accounted for the majority of losses, highlighting concentrated risk in large decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. Increasingly, attackers are targeting off-chain infrastructure such as key management systems and cloud services, making breaches harder to detect and prevent. The trend underscores persistent security challenges across the digital asset ecosystem.
• Regulatory uncertainty is intensifying in the U.S. as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sued multiple states, including New York and Illinois, over attempts to classify prediction markets as gambling rather than financial derivatives. The dispute highlights a fragmented regulatory landscape where federal and state authorities disagree on jurisdiction, creating uncertainty for platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. If classified as gambling, these platforms could face stricter licensing requirements, limited market access, and reduced institutional participation. With cases potentially reaching the Supreme Court, the regulatory divide represents a material risk to the growth and legitimacy of crypto-based prediction markets.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• SanDisk reported this week, with management describing results as "unprecedented," citing explosive demand for enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs) in artificial intelligence (AI) clusters, which led to supply shortages and record margin expansion. The CEO said the company is only at the beginning of a multi-year infrastructure refresh cycle and raised next quarter guidance to $7.75-$8.25 billion. Revenue reached $5.95 billion, up 251% year-over-year (YoY) and 97% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) hit $23.41, up 963% YoY and 111% QoQ.

• L3Harris Technologies' backlog has nearly doubled to over $40 billion and could reach $60-$70 billion within the next 12 months, driven by international demand and classified programs.
• Booz Allen Hamilton was selected as one of 12 firms for agreements worth up to $3.2 billion to develop space-based interceptor prototypes.

Weaknesses

• Over the past week, Russia carried out repeated drone and missile strikes on Odesa, damaging homes, hospitals, and port infrastructure across multiple districts. The attacks left parts of the city burning and in rubble, reflecting one of the most intense periods of pressure on southern Ukraine in recent months.
• Textron Inc. faces increased risk related to potential funding pressures and cost overruns in the MV-75 program, with a possible $60-$110 million unfavorable adjustment.
• Despite repeated claims of strategic momentum, Russia remains engaged in a costly, protracted war of attrition with limited operational gains. Ongoing battlefield strain, high losses, and the absence of a credible diplomatic off-ramp continue to undermine its ability to translate rhetoric into decisive outcomes.

Opportunities

• Japan is adopting an unconventional solution for military training: expendable target drones made from corrugated cardboard. The lightweight, low-cost platforms are easy to mass-produce, making them well-suited for repeated live-fire exercises.
• Ukraine is accelerating deployment of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), with plans to field at least 50,000 systems this year as it expands unmanned warfare capabilities. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said UGVs are becoming critical for logistics, casualty evacuation, and combat support to reduce frontline risk to personnel.
• Boeing MQ-25 Stingray completed its first flight, marking a key milestone for the U.S. Navy's carrier-based unmanned aerial refueling program. The aircraft flew for about two hours, autonomously managing taxi, takeoff, flight, and landing while receiving commands from a ground control station.

Threats

• Meta Platforms's sharply higher AI-driven capital expenditures are compressing near-term free cash flow (FCF) and increasing uncertainty around returns on invested capital (ROIC). Elevated spending shifts the equity narrative from a high-margin cash generator toward a more capital-intensive and potentially more volatile growth profile.
• While President Donald Trump has declared the war effectively over, negotiations have failed to reach a consensus, with Iran stating that its latest proposal was a final offer. The lack of an agreed framework leaves the ceasefire fragile and raises the risk of renewed escalation.
• Anthropic says its latest AI model, Claude Mythos (Mythos Preview), is too powerful and potentially dangerous for public release. The company claims the system can autonomously discover and exploit software vulnerabilities, leading to a restricted rollout limited to trusted cybersecurity partners.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed the week at $xxxx. xx, up/down $x. xx per ounce, or x.x%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week higher/lower by x.x%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in up/off x.x%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose/fell x.x%.

Strengths

• The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 2.79%. The U.S. determined that Russia has been selling palladium below fair market value while subsidizing producers, and responded with import taxes exceeding 240%, effectively shutting Russian supply out of the U.S. market. While the ruling is not yet permanent pending further review, the duties are already being collected, making the restrictions effectively active.
• World Gold Council reported first quarter 2026 demand, with its Gold Demand Trends showing a 42% year-over-year increase in bar and coin demand, led by Asia. Central bank demand rose 3% year-over-year to 244 tons, despite softer data earlier in the quarter, while exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows fell 73% year-over-year and jewelry demand declined 23% year-over-year. Overall, global gold demand increased 2% year-over-year to 1,231 tons.
• Trident Resources reported its strongest drill result to date at the Contact Lake gold project in Saskatchewan, with 15.11 grams per ton gold over 51.83 meters, along with additional intercepts including 5.07 grams per ton over 21.50 meters. Despite a pullback in gold prices, high-quality exploration results continue to attract investor interest, particularly for projects with strong resource potential and expansion upside.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing precious metal for the week was xxx, down xx%. Gold extended its decline as investor focus remained on potential talks between the U.S. and Iran, while the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened inflation concerns, according to Bloomberg.
• Chinese nationals, backed by Zimbabwean army soldiers, have illegally seized over 500 hectares of ancestral land in Chimanimani for riverbed gold mining, displacing nearly 3,500 families despite a government ban. Authorities have remained largely silent, raising concerns about high-level protection. Environmental damage has spread across borders, with polluted water flowing into Mozambique and increasing tensions in downstream communities.
• Queensland's Ravenswood gold mine is nearing receivership after its four derivative counterparties-HSBC, Macquarie, ING, and Natixis-terminated gold hedging contracts following missed mid-April payments. Restructuring firms KordaMentha and FTI Consulting are expected to be appointed. The situation highlights the risks of poorly executed hedging strategies, as owners EMR Capital and Golden Energy and Resources face losses despite strong gold prices.

Opportunities

• Barrick Mining Corporation said it plans to list its North American operations in New York and remains on track to complete the initial public offering (IPO) by year-end. The world's third-largest gold producer is pursuing the IPO as part of a strategic reset following operational setbacks and a management shakeup, including the departure of longtime CEO Mark Bristow, according to Bloomberg.
• Canada will create its first sovereign wealth fund to finance large infrastructure projects, Prime Minister Mark Carney said. The fund will also allow individual Canadians to contribute, confirming earlier media reports.
• Torex Gold Resources reported strong exploration results at its Media Luna cluster and ELG Underground mine, with drilling supporting resource expansion and continued high-grade mineralization. The results point to potential resource upgrades and longer mine life. Despite trading at a discount to peers-0.41x price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) and 2.8x 2026 estimated enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) versus 0.54x and 5.8x-Desjardins rates the stock a Buy with a C$105 target, citing ongoing drilling and early-stage targets as catalysts.

Threats

• United States Mint sells more than $1 billion of investment-grade gold coins annually, each stamped with symbols like the bald eagle and marketed as 100% American gold. However, a The New York Times investigation found the program may rely on foreign gold, including illegally mined supply, raising concerns about sourcing transparency.
• India's gold imports are set to fall to roughly 15 tonnes in April, a near 30-year low, after banks halted shipments following the lapse of a longstanding integrated goods and services tax (IGST) exemption on bullion imports, according to Reuters. The delay may be intentional to curb imports and support the rupee.
• Agnico Eagle Mines, Newmont, Alamos Gold, and Kinross Gold all flagged energy and diesel cost inflation as a key all-in sustaining cost (AISC) headwind in recent reports, with most using $70 per barrel assumptions for 2026. Elevated energy prices risk pushing costs above expectations and compressing free cash flow as margins peak.

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Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (03/31/2026):

Bombardier Inc.

General Dynamics

United Airlines

American Airlines

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte

Japan Airlines

Delta Air Lines

Deutsche Lufthansa

Qantas Airways

Adidas

Royal Caribbean

Hilton

TotalEnergies SE

Trident Resources

Barrick Mining Corporation

Torex Gold Resources

Agnico Eagle Mines

Newmont

Alamos Gold

Kinross Gold

SanDisk

Boeing

*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.

The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months. The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager's Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.