CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor’s November Data Shows Strong Year-Over-Year Growth in First Half of Holiday Season

WASHINGTON - Retail sales saw strong year-over-year growth in November, with the first half of the holiday shopping season putting results on track to meet the National Retail Federation's spending forecast, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by NRF.

"Retail sales showed healthy year-over-year gains in November while month-over-month data was largely flat," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. "Shoppers looking for online deals may have held back a bit until Cyber Monday, which landed in December due to a late Thanksgiving, likely shifting some spending. Consumers are focusing on value and spending carefully during the holiday period, and retailers are offering products at competitive prices to fit every budget. We remain confident in our 2025 holiday forecast as well as our retail sales projections for the full year."

Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 0.12% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.53% unadjusted year over year in November, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.6% month over month and 5% year over year in October.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations) was down a slight 0.04% month over month in November but up 4.66% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.6% month over month and 4.89% year over year in October.

Total sales were up 5.06% year over year for the first 11 months of the year and core sales were up 5.22%.

The November results come as NRF is forecasting that 2025 holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared with 2024 to just over $1 trillion. NRF has forecast that retail sales for the entire year will increase between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024 to as much as $5.48 trillion.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

November sales were up in all but one category on a yearly basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores and clothing stores but were down in six out of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were down 0.37% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 14.81% year over year unadjusted.

• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.28% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.96% year over year unadjusted.

• Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.04% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 8.16% year over year unadjusted.

• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.74% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.89% year over year unadjusted.

• General merchandise stores were down 0.73% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 3.1% year over year unadjusted.

• Health and personal care stores were down 0.19% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 1.31% year over year unadjusted.

• Electronics and appliance stores were down 2.94% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 1.01% year over year unadjusted.

• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 0.53% year over year unadjusted.

• Building and garden supply stores were down 1.74% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 9.38% year over year unadjusted.

To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.

About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation's largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs - 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com