Will Trump make nuclear war more likely? University of Leicester expert gives his view

Will Trump make nuclear war more likely? University of Leicester expert gives his view

15 January 2025

An expert in global nuclear politics from the University of Leicester has warned Donald Trump's presidential era could put more responsibility on the UK to lead on nuclear deterrence in Europe.

Speaking ahead of Trump's inauguration on Monday 20 January, Professor of International Politics, Andrew Futter, has explained how the new US President could "upset the applecart" when it comes to Europe's nuclear security.

Professor Futter highlights a concern that Trump may undermine or weaken the US link with NATO - the political and military alliance of countries from Europe and North America, which agrees to defend each other against attacks by third parties.

Professor Futter said: "There's real concern across Europe, not so much that Trump has his finger on the button and might start a nuclear war, but that he might somehow undermine NATO. The US is so integral to European security. By saying things off-the-cuff, like 'we won't support allies that don't pay for their security', or doing a deal with Putin over Ukraine, or if he decides to pull US forces from a particular location - Trump create significant problems in Europe, because European security is entirely premised on the US undergirding it."

He added: "This possible US disengagement would put a lot of pressure on the UK, which would be left as the only state that has committed its nuclear weapons to NATO. That would make the UK the nuclear guarantor of the Baltic states, Poland and so on, which would be a huge headache.

"So, any weakening of the NATO alliance is a worry."

Professor Futter also suggests Trump will oversee an increase in the number of nuclear weapons in the United States.

"The era of numbers going down has probably stopped and Trump will become synonymous with this nuclear build-up, I suspect," he said.

"There is one major arms treaty left between the US and Russia, the New Start Treaty, which keeps the limit on how many strategic nuclear weapons can be deployed - or in other words, those that are ready to go, and can be used in minutes - and that expires in 2026. That number is capped at 1,500 each, so in theory, if that treaty goes, numbers could be increased quite rapidly. To put things into context, most of those warheads are bigger than the ones used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

"The clock really is ticking on all of the last vestiges of the arms control frameworks that were built up over decades, and this is something that Trump will need to consider. If the treaty expires and nothing is put in its place, it will be pretty symbolic."

Despite the various security concerns, Professor Futter also thinks Trump's attitude to the effects of nuclear weapons might have a dampening effect on any rise in nuclear instability.

He said: "I do think Trump is aware of just how dangerous these weapons are, and there may be a push from him to do a deal on arms control with Russia, and he may find a way to reduce nuclear risks in other ways.

"So, I have this underlying feeling that if someone is going to make a big leap on reducing the nuclear threat, it will probably be someone like Trump. He might be more like former US president Ronald Reagan, and think, 'oh my god, we have to find a way to stop these weapons being used because there isn't any defence against them'. There have been so many presidents preceding Trump who were so enmeshed in all the nuclear debates that they perhaps didn't look at it in the way Trump does."

Professor Futter leads the European Research Council Third Nuclear Ageproject, which provides an insight into the dynamics driving the threat of nuclear conflict.

His comments come at the time of the publication of a book he has co-authored with colleagues from Third Nuclear Age.

The Global Third Nuclear Age - Clashing Visions for a New Era in International Politics, provides an in-depth examination of the technological, geopolitical and normative pressures driving the world into a new, more complex and potentially more dangerous Third Nuclear Age.