SpaceX to the Mars

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Good Morning,

US and Iran are lighting up Hormuz again, PE firms are sitting on a nine-year backlog, hedge funds had their best H1 since 2021, BlackRock will launch a Nasdaq-100 ETF, and Wall Street analysts are forecasting a 47% upside for SpaceX in their sell-side coverage debut.

Curious where finance is headed in 2026 and beyond? Check out Plaid's full list of recent Plaid Effects sessions, now on demand.

Let's dive in.

Before The Bell

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Markets

• US stocks slipped yesterday as traders digested new development in the Strait of Hormuz

• Nasdaq-100 implied volatility is at the highest lever versus the VIX since 2002

  • Swap markets priced in 32 bps of rate hike premium by year-end as traders hedge for a less hawkish Fed

• Oil spiked

• Coffee futures surged 19% by the most this century to reverse all YTD losses

Earnings

• Samsung broke Q1 operating profit records with another 56% surge and projected a 19x jump in Q2 profit on booming demand for AI chips (WSJ)

• What we're watching this week:

  • Today: Levi's

  • Thursday: PepsiCo

  • Friday: Delta

• Full calendar here

Prediction Markets

• AOC is just 1 point away from being the market favorite to be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee

• Trade event contracts on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market

Headline Roundup

• Four states are seeking $1.4T from Meta after youth safety trial (RT)

• US revoked Iran sanction waivers after Hormuz attacks (BBG)

• Trump threatened to remove all US troops from Europe (FT)

• PE firms are sitting on a nine-year backlog (WSJ)

• Hedge funds gained 7.2% in their best H1 since 2021 (BBG)

• Wall Street banks expect Q2 profit boost from SpaceX-led trading surge (RT)

• HSBC pulled back from riskier private credit lending (FT)

• Wall Street analysts see 47% upside for SpaceX (BBG)

• SpaceX falls below $2T market cap following Nasdaq-100 debut (WSJ)

• BlackRock will launch a Nasdaq-100 ETF (RT)

• Traders are the most bullish on dollar since 2015 (BBG)

• The gold bull market has ended (BBG)

• China's PBOC bought the most gold since 2023 (BBG)

• China's DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip (RT)

• Perplexity plans to use Nvidia's new CPU (RT)

• Meta debuts first image model since Zuck's AI overhaul (FT)

• Lawmakers probe Lutnick's ties to Cantor Fitzgerald deal (WSJ)

• AI startup CEO pleads guilty to insider trading on lawyer tips (RT)

• Walmart lowered prices on thousands of items (WSJ)

• USA vs Belgium match drew a record 42M US viewers (WSJ)

• US coach Pochettino's viral shirt gives Hugo Boss welcome buzz (RT)

A Message from Plaid

Curious where finance is headed in 2026 and beyond?

You could spend months trying to understand how AI is actually changing underwriting, fraud, and payments.

Or you could hear it directly from the teams behind the shift; no guesswork required.

See the full list of Plaid Effects sessions, now on demand.

The conversations shaping finance in 2026 happened at Plaid Effects. Leaders from Brex, Databricks, and Plaid went deep on AI, fraud, and what's actually changing in financial services.

Here's a look at what's available - from product deep dives to customer sessions:

• How Brex rebuilds financial experiences with AI, not around it

• Modern fraud defense with Protect's Ti3

• AI guardrails that support growth with Databricks

All sessions are now on demand. Watch now.

Deal Flow

M&A / Strategic

• Infrastructure engineering ​and construction firm MasTec will acquire electrical contractor Superior Group ​in a $1.65B cash-and-stock deal

• The Private Department of Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalid Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi will invest $1.13B in EIG-backed MidOcean to develop energy and infrastructure in UAE

• Norway's $2T SWF NBIM will acquire a 49% stake in luxury retail real ⁠estate PE ​firm Asana Partners for $500M

• Cosmetics giant Coty agreed to transfer the Gucci Beauty license back to Kering ​in a $400M deal

• Investment firm Apex will acquire a $21M minority stake in Canada's women soccer league Northern Super League

• Banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are in talks acquire a payment infrastructure business owned by fintech Fiserv to by-pass laws that limit debit card transaction fees

• EQT will acquire specialty medical patch maker Corza Biosurgery from GTCR's Corza Medical business

• HSBC is exploring a sale of its HSBC Türkiye retail and corporate unit

• PE firms Epiris and Octopus Investments and Africa's Telecel Group are among bidders competing to acquire struggling UK broadband provider TalkTalk's wholesale telecoms business PlatformX Communications

VC

• Oratomic, a quantum computing startup, raised a $300M Series A co-led by ARCH Venture Partners, Spark Capital and Khosla Ventures

• Geothermal startup Quaise Energy raised a $134M Series B led by Prelude Ventures

• Nomos AI, a legal AI startup, raised a $120M in a Series C at a $1.2B valuation led by Khosla Ventures

• EDX Markets, a digital asset technology firm combining an institutional-only trading venue with a central clearinghouse, raised $76M in a Series C led by SBI Holdings

• Tangos, an autonomous AI platform for financial crime investigations, raised a $20M seed round led by Red Dot Capital Partners

• Handspring Health, a virtual mental health clinic for youth and families, raised a $19M Series B led by RPS Ventures

Access the complete VC deal flow and data on Fundable

IPOs / Listings / Issuances / Block Trades

• The $28B US listing of Korean memory chip darling SK Hynix is multiple times oversubscribed

• Chinese electronics manufacturer Luxshare Precision Industry raised $3.1B in a Hong Kong listing priced at the top of a marketed range for a 13% discount

• India property developer K Raheja delayed plans for a $700M India IPO

• Indian insurance aggregator InsuranceDekho's picked banks for a $400M India IPO

• Nuclear fuel firm Standard Nuclear is seeking to raise $383M at a $3.55B valuation in its IPO

• Angola plans to raise $320M in a record IPO of telecoms Unitel

• Temasek-backed Indian gym chain Cult.Fit filed for a $100M India IPO

• Intel-backed AI chip and software maker Syntiant filed for an IPO

Debt

• Amazon plans to raise $25B in its final bond sale this year

• Italy raised $6B in its first dollar bond sale since 2021

• German online car-parts retailer Autodoc is raising over $600M in debt financing to help buy back a 15% stake held by Apollo

Bankruptcy / Restructuring / Distressed

• Aberdeen-backed UK broadband provider Airband is seeking a new owner under a restructuring after racking up heavy losses, putting $267M of investor money at risk

• Lenders to Getty Images started to organize after the firm scrapped a planned merger with Shutterstock

Funds / Secondaries

• KKR-owned sports PE firm Arctos Partners raised $6.2B for a debut GP financing fund

• Private markets investor Hamilton Lane raised $3.8B for its sixth flagship PE fund

• Isogon Ventures is seeking to raise a $150M debut fund

Crypto Sum Snapshot

• Trump's Bitcoin reserve faces hurdles as Treasury and Commerce departments fight for control

Crypto Sum compiles the most important stories on everything crypto. Read it here.

Exec's Picks

• Bloomberg Odd Lots sat down with pro-am prediction market traders Brian Golden and Daniel Reichman to hear about the efforts that go into spotting opportunities, the systematic biases among traders, how they feel about insider trading, and other major issues that surround the space. It's a good listen.

• Totally unrelated to the Fourth of July and America soccer spirit but betting against US stocks has never really proven successful. Check out Callie Cox's insights here.

Financial Services Recruiting

If you're a junior banker looking for your next career move, check out Litney Partners, a recruiting firm established by Litquidity and Whitney Partners (the oldest purely financial services executive search and consulting firm).

We aim to place strong candidates across private equity, hedge funds, venture capital, growth equity, credit, and investment banking.

We're currently seeking talent for some incredible roles. Head over to Litney Partners to drop your resume / create your profile and we'd love to get in touch!

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*DISCLAIMER: Investment advice provided by Autopilot Advisers, LLC ("Autopilot"), an SEC-registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing carries risks, including loss of principal. As always, be smart out there. Litquidity is compensated to promote AutoPilot. Compensation details available upon request.