Fidelis Capital LLC
10/02/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/02/2026 12:34
Investment Insights: Week Ending October 2
Originally published in "Investment Insights: Week Ending October 2"
By: Michael Sellers
Partner, Portfolio Manager
Happy Friday everyone! This week, we closed out an eventful September for markets. Here's a look at everything that transpired over the month and what it means for investors.
The Fed decided to raise interest rates by 25bps after its September meeting, while longer-dated yields rose to historical levels as the month progressed. The 10-year Treasury bond hit an intraday high on September 30 of 5.306%, its highest level since May of 2002.
Equity markets were mixed on the month, generally participating in historical September seasonality. The S&P 500 was down about 0.3% and the Dow was down more than 4%, while mega tech was more resilient, with the Nasdaq up nearly 2% as the AI trade held strong on the back of solid Q3 earnings reports. The Russell 2000 also finished the month in negative territory, as the potential for higher borrowing costs weighed on the index.
Despite rate and inflation concerns, the broader macroeconomic backdrop remained resilient.
September's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report came in lower than the street's expectations, reflecting a 0.3% monthly gain and sending the probability of an October rate hike down from 51% to 35%.
Markets are still adjusting to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's less transparent communication style. In contrast to recent Fed chairs, Warsh has provided less forward guidance, leaving investors to interpret economic data and assess its potential implications for future monetary policy.
ADP's September report on private-sector employment indicated that hiring was strong on the month, with employers adding 90,000 jobs-a marked improvement from August's 36,000 jobs added.
The Commerce Department revised second-quarter GDP upwards to 2.2% from the previously reported 1.5%, signaling the economy is still on solid footing despite higher fuel prices.
This past week, we also received August's consumer spending report, which showed a healthy increase of 0.9% for the month.
On one hand, interest rates continue to move unrelentingly higher. Fueling inflation concerns (pun intended) is the ongoing conflict with Iran and the uncertainty that causes in energy markets.
September's PCE report provided some welcome relief, but we caution investors that a single data point does not make a trend. We enter Q4 with heightened market sensitivity around yields and inflationary pressures.
On the other hand, the broader economic data remains remarkably resilient. Growth continues to be stronger than expected, consumption is strong, and the economy continues to operate at or near full employment.
We recently wrote about how challenging September has been historically for equity markets, especially in midterm election years. While we can take a sigh of relief that September is over, we remain vigilant as we continue navigating the ever-evolving geopolitical, interest rate, and broader economic landscapes.
By: Michael Sellers
Partner, Portfolio Manager
Happy Friday everyone! This week, we closed out an eventful September for markets. Here's a look at everything that transpired over the month and what it means for investors.
What We Learned In September
Inflation and rates continued to dominate the headlines, while the US-Iran conflict lingered on, keeping oil prices volatile throughout the month.The Fed decided to raise interest rates by 25bps after its September meeting, while longer-dated yields rose to historical levels as the month progressed. The 10-year Treasury bond hit an intraday high on September 30 of 5.306%, its highest level since May of 2002.
Equity markets were mixed on the month, generally participating in historical September seasonality. The S&P 500 was down about 0.3% and the Dow was down more than 4%, while mega tech was more resilient, with the Nasdaq up nearly 2% as the AI trade held strong on the back of solid Q3 earnings reports. The Russell 2000 also finished the month in negative territory, as the potential for higher borrowing costs weighed on the index.
Despite rate and inflation concerns, the broader macroeconomic backdrop remained resilient.
September's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report came in lower than the street's expectations, reflecting a 0.3% monthly gain and sending the probability of an October rate hike down from 51% to 35%.
Markets are still adjusting to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's less transparent communication style. In contrast to recent Fed chairs, Warsh has provided less forward guidance, leaving investors to interpret economic data and assess its potential implications for future monetary policy.
ADP's September report on private-sector employment indicated that hiring was strong on the month, with employers adding 90,000 jobs-a marked improvement from August's 36,000 jobs added.
The Commerce Department revised second-quarter GDP upwards to 2.2% from the previously reported 1.5%, signaling the economy is still on solid footing despite higher fuel prices.
This past week, we also received August's consumer spending report, which showed a healthy increase of 0.9% for the month.
What Does This Mean For Investors?
As we enter the fourth quarter, investors are left to contemplate two competing narratives.On one hand, interest rates continue to move unrelentingly higher. Fueling inflation concerns (pun intended) is the ongoing conflict with Iran and the uncertainty that causes in energy markets.
September's PCE report provided some welcome relief, but we caution investors that a single data point does not make a trend. We enter Q4 with heightened market sensitivity around yields and inflationary pressures.
On the other hand, the broader economic data remains remarkably resilient. Growth continues to be stronger than expected, consumption is strong, and the economy continues to operate at or near full employment.
We recently wrote about how challenging September has been historically for equity markets, especially in midterm election years. While we can take a sigh of relief that September is over, we remain vigilant as we continue navigating the ever-evolving geopolitical, interest rate, and broader economic landscapes.
Closing Time
As always, we are here for you. If you have any questions or concerns, please reach out to a member of your Fidelis Capital team.
Fidelis Capital LLC published this content on October 02, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on October 02, 2026 at 18:34 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]