Market Briefs | January 21, 2026

Rice
The long-term downtrend in rice futures appears to be over for the time being, with clear chart signals that the market has found its bottom. The market is holding steady above previous resistance at $10 but has found resistance between $10.50 and $10.75. Recent USDA reports have provided somewhat bullish news for prices. The annual production report pegged harvested acres at 2.74 million, down 20,000 acres from the previous projection. That more than offset the higher yield estimate, resulting in total production of 206.7 million hundredweight. The import projection was lowered by 1 million cwt, and domestic use was increased by 5 million cwt to 171 million cwt, but that was partially offset by a 3 million cwt decrease in the export projection. The net result was a 3.6 million cwt reduction in projected ending stocks. The all-rice expected average on farm price was increased 20 cents to $11.80, while the projected long-grain price was unchanged at $10.50.

Corn
The January WASDE was a game changer for the corn market as USDA increased harvested acreage by 1.3 million acres and raised yield estimates to 186.5 bushels per acre, even as the trade had been expecting a 2-bushel-per-acre decline. Following the initial selloff tied to the report, corn futures have remained under modest pressure, with market focus shifting away from fundamentals and toward geopolitical and trade-related concerns. September 2026 futures settled at their lowest close since last August at $4.31 before stabilizing just above the key technical support level at $4.30. From a technical standpoint, a decisive break below this area would likely invite additional fund selling and could open the door for a move back toward the psychologically important $4.00 level.

Soybeans
The January WASDE could best be described as "less bad" for soybeans. USDA raised U.S. ending stocks to 350 million bushels, which came in at the upper end of trade expectations. Global ending stocks were also increased to 124.41 million metric tons, compared to 123.4 million last year. Technically, soybeans reacted far less negatively than corn. Prices briefly broke trendline support and tested horizontal support in the March contract near the $10.30 to $10.40 range. Since the report, futures have struggled to push through resistance at the 20-day moving average near $10.58. Even so, March soybean futures have posted higher highs and higher lows for four consecutive sessions, and momentum indicators suggest the two-month selling wave is gradually losing steam.

Wheat
Fundamental changes in the January WASDE were not supportive for wheat, but they were also not aggressively bearish. After initially selling off in sympathy with corn, wheat prices have steadily clawed back losses. From a technical perspective, both Chicago and Kansas City futures appear to have established a bottom and are beginning to bounce with improving momentum. March Kansas City wheat recently tested resistance on a breakout attempt above the 100-day moving average near $5.26. The key support level to monitor remains near $5.18, just above last week's lows. A break below that area would likely shift the bearish target toward the $5.10 level.

Cotton
Cotton futures are trading in a mostly sideways pattern but appear to have established a bottom near 63 cents. Recent USDA reports have been somewhat bullish for the market, and traders have grown concerned about the size of next year's crop given current price levels and negative margins for three years running. In the January Annual Production Report, USDA lowered the 2025 crop estimate to 13.918 million bales, down 350,000 bales from the December estimate. The reduction was due to an 8% drop in average yields due to lower yields in the Delta and larger harvested acreage in the Southwest. The WASDE report was mostly unchanged otherwise, resulting in a 300,000 bale reduction in projected ending stocks and an increase of a penny in the expected on-farm average price, which is now pegged at 61 cents/lb.

Livestock and Poultry
In the January WASDE report, USDA raised their beef production on heavier dressed weights, which more than offset the reduced fed cattle slaughter at the end of 2025. The Cattle report, released January 30, will provide a better indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2026 and producer intentions to retain heifers for breeding. Pork production estimates were increased based on data from the December Hogs and pigs report, which showed a larger-than-expected pig crop during the last two quarters of 2025. Broiler and turkey production estimates were raised on hatchery data and recent production. Cattle prices are expected to move higher in early 2026, while hog and broiler prices are projected to hold steady.