AFBF - American Farm Bureau Federation
02/05/2026 | News release | Distributed by Public on 02/05/2026 15:43
Farm Income Forecast Shows Ag Economy Remains Under Significant Pressure
Daniel Munch
Economist
Chad Smith
Associate News Service Editor, NAFB
New data from USDA showed that farmers and ranchers continue to face an economic storm. Chad Smith has details.
Smith: The USDA projects that net farm income will slip lower in 2026 and remain about $48 billion under the record highs of 2022. Danny Munch, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, says farmers and ranchers are looking at a generational downturn.
Munch: The USDA projects net farm income at about $153 billion in 2026 and about $1.2 billion down from last year's revised number. Production expenses are estimated to reach a record level at $477.7 billion. Livestock receipts are expected to decline $17 billion. Crop receipts are expected to stay about even, but are still below break-even prices for farmers.
Smith: Munch says the farm income picture looks much different than the last time USDA made a projection in September 2025.
Munch: We haven't had a picture of the 2025 net farm income number for a while. The biggest surprise from this report is how much weaker 2025 turned out to be. USDA revised their 2025 net farm income number down $25 billion compared to its original forecast. So moving from $180 billion that they forecasted in September for the year to just over $154 billion.
Smith: The problems with the farm economy have been well-documented, but Munch says there are some potential solutions on the table.
Munch: Farmers need stronger market returns, so income comes from selling commodities, not that aid, and that means improving farm safety net through a fully passed farm bill, strengthening trade and demand and addressing rising inputs. And we need more durable policy fixes, or the financial situation for rural America is going to continue to deteriorate.
Smith: For more information, go to fb.org/marketintel. Chad Smith, Washington.
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