How Big Could The Next Fall In Casey’s Stock Be

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Shares of Casey's General Stores (CASY) have lost 21.4% over the past three months, while the S&P 500 slipped 2.3%. Shareholders who have already taken that hit have a fair worry, because a broad market sell-off would come on top of it. So when the whole market has dropped before, how far did Casey's shares fall, and how long did they take to come back?

How Far Has Casey's Stock Fallen In Past Shocks?

The worst of the market shocks Casey's has traded through since 2007 was the 2008-2009 financial crisis, when the shares fell 39% while the S&P 500 lost 53%. Casey's has fallen less than the broader market in most shocks since then. Across all 15 shocks, the stock fell 11.2% on average, compared with 15.8% for the index. It did not always hold up better, though: during the 2023 regional banking crisis, Casey's dropped 7.8%, a little more than the market's 6.7% loss.

Casey's shares have also recovered within months. From its lowest close in a given shock, the stock typically needed about two months to regain the high it held before the fall, returning to that level every time. The slowest recovery followed the 2016-2017 bond sell-off and took 7.1 months.

Casey's Business Is Bigger And More Profitable Now

Over the twelve months ended July 31, 2026, Casey's posted revenue of $18.7 billion, up 13.8% from a year earlier. Revenue growth has picked up each year, climbing from 4.0% in the twelve months to July 2024 to 8.7% in the twelve months to July 2025. The company is also keeping more of each sale. Its 4.1% net margin marks the highest level at any quarter end from fiscal 2017 on.

Casey's carries more debt than it did two years ago, holding $2.89 billion at the end of July 2026 against $1.61 billion in July 2024. Measured against the company's market value, that debt sits at 11.7%, below the 19.2% for the S&P 500.

Where Is Casey's Under Pressure Now?

The company reported on September 8 that sales inside existing stores rose 3.2% in the quarter ended July 2026, marking a slowdown from the year before. On the September 9 call, management said beer, snacks and cigarettes were soft, and that lower-income consumers were slightly more affected than other shoppers. Fuel volume at existing stores slipped 0.3% in the same quarter.

Costs are climbing as well. Operating expenses rose 8% in the quarter, and management expects a similar increase in the fiscal second quarter, partly because retail fuel prices are higher. Casey's operating margin for the quarter was 6.5%, compared with 6.7% in the same quarter a year earlier.

Profit on each gallon of fuel declined in August. Casey's earned 47.8 cents a gallon in the quarter ended July, and management put August in the low 40s.

Casey's is expected to report its fiscal second quarter 2027 results in December 2026, and management plans to update its annual guidance on that call. Growth in sales inside existing stores, measured against the 2% to 5% range management guided for fiscal 2027, is the figure to watch in that report.

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