Can Africa break the cycle of crisis and recovery

Addis Ababa, 1 June 2026 (ECA) - Having weathered three major global shocks in just six years, African economies have had no shortage of lessons. Yet many of the vulnerabilities exposed by those crises remain unresolved.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 exposed deep dependence on imported pharmaceuticals and medical supplies. Then, in 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted grain and fertilizer markets, sending food and transport costs soaring across much of the continent.

Now, the Iran conflict is once again disrupting energy and fertilizer markets, trade routes, and supply chains, exposing Africa's continued vulnerability in an increasingly unstable global economy.

Concerns are growing not only about the human cost of the war, but also about its economic consequences. Oil prices have surged, aviation routes have been disrupted, and uncertainty around global trade is once again putting pressure on fuel, food, and transport costs.

Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important corridors for oil, gas, and fertilizer exports, are fueling fears of a wider global economic slowdown.

Economists warn that if oil prices remain above $100 a barrel for a prolonged period, the world could face another global recession.

The United Nations is also warning of a growing humanitarian toll.

"When the Strait of Hormuz is strangled, the world's poorest and most vulnerable cannot breathe," United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned.

He added that prolonged disruption could push 32 million more people into poverty and leave 45 million facing extreme hunger, particularly among the world's most vulnerable populations.

African countries are among the most vulnerable to such disruptions, largely because of the continent's dependence on critical imports. Roughly 80 per cent of African countries are net importers of refined petroleum products, while sub-Saharan Africa imports nearly 80 per cent of its fertilizer needs.

As a result, disruptions spread quickly across economies. Rising fuel prices drive up transport costs, while fertilizer shortages threaten agricultural production in countries already grappling with inflation and food insecurity.

Governments across Africa are responding with a range of measures, including fuel subsidies, public transport initiatives, and efforts to strengthen energy security and fertilizer supply.

Airlines are also facing mounting pressure.

According to the International Air Transport Association, global jet fuel prices nearly doubled during the height of the conflict. Fuel now accounts for between 30 and 55 per cent of operating costs for some African airlines, well above the global average of 20 to 30 per cent.

Passengers are also on the receiving end of those higher costs.

"Because of fuel surcharges, which have increased between 20 and 50 per cent across airlines, we've seen ticket prices rise by anywhere from 20,000 to 100,000 birr," says Iman Durri, Deputy General Manager of Safeway Travel & Tours PLC.

As conflict disrupts air travel through parts of the Middle East, some passengers shifted to African transit hubs, particularly Addis Ababa and Nairobi.

Maureen Kahonge, Director of Communications at the African Airlines Association, says about 22 per cent of intra-African air traffic normally transits through hubs outside the continent. The disruption has "drawn greater attention to African hubs as transit points for passengers travelling between Africa and the rest of the world."

Global shipping routes have also been severely affected.

With disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and parts of the Red Sea, some cargo vessels have been rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding both time and cost to global trade.

ECA Executive Secretary Claver Gatete says the current crisis, despite its challenges, presents an opportunity to accelerate efforts to strengthen regional value chains and reduce dependence on external supply chains.

"Talking to member countries about the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and how to implement it becomes much easier because they have seen what is likely to happen if you don't do it," says Mr Gatete.

Africa, he argues, already has many of the resources and market opportunities needed to begin reducing its reliance on imported fuel and fertilizer.

He points to the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, Morocco's phosphate reserves, and the AfCFTA operationalization as examples of how the continent can strengthen regional value chains and build greater resilience to future shocks.

Mr Gatete also argues that crises tend to accelerate reforms that would otherwise struggle to gain momentum.

One lesson from recent years is that business as usual until the next crisis hits is not a sustainable path for Africa.

Whether it comes in the form of a pandemic, a war, or an energy shock, countries with stronger domestic financial resources, industrial capacity, efficient transport networks, and deeper regional integration are better positioned to absorb the impact.

For Africa, that places renewed focus on implementation, from the AfCFTA and regional transport links to investments in refining, manufacturing, and logistics.

The next global shock may come from a different part of the world. Will Africa be better prepared when it does?

Watch our latest episode of the Sustainable Africa Series for more insights.

Issued by:
Communications Section
Economic Commission for Africa
PO Box 3001
Addis Ababa
Ethiopia
Tel: +251 11 551 5826
E-mail: [email protected]