Could Howmet Stock’s Winning Streak Be Luck

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) manufactures engine parts, fasteners, and forged wheels. Its share price has outperformed the S&P 500 in each of the last five years, dividends excluded. A record like that looks like proof of an exceptional company. So take a guess: of 485 large U.S. stocks, how many did the same?

How Rare Is Howmet's Winning Streak?

Only 11 of the 485 stocks measured, representing current S&P 500 members with five years of pricing data, beat the index in each of those years. Howmet is one of them. Its price change against the index in each year, dividends excluded, is detailed below.

In most years, beating the benchmark is the less common result-in the twelve months ending October 2026, only 38.1% of these stocks beat the S&P 500. Doing it five years running is exceptionally rare. Note that Howmet's fifth-year win rested on a price-only margin of just 0.1 percentage points (+14.9% vs. +14.8%), illustrating how close the streak came to breaking.

A long winning run can leave Howmet Aerospace a larger share of what you own than you planned. See how to protect a concentrated position.

Could A Streak Like This Be Luck?

Within a sample this large, a few stocks will inevitably string together long streaks even if no company fundamentally outperforms another. In a typical year, about 41% of these stocks beat the index. Now suppose pure luck determines the outcome. Each year, you place all 485 names in a hat and draw 41% of them as that year's winners.

Repeat that draw five years in a row, and about six names will emerge every single time. Six companies would achieve a five-year winning streak with no skill involved at all. In reality, 11 companies possess such a streak. That total is roughly twice as high as luck alone would produce. More of these stocks maintained their run than this simple probability model would project. Some of that margin may indicate actual skill. Yet the sample covers only current index members, and the share price is no guide to which streaks rely on skill.

Did Howmet's Profit Grow Through The Streak?

Howmet's largest segment is Engine Products, generating 52.4% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, followed by Fastening Systems. Its twelve-month profit rose in all five years of the streak. Over the entire five-year span, profit expanded 551.9%, standing alongside a 598.4% rise in the share price.

Profit expanded consistently throughout the winning streak, increasing by a similar magnitude to the share price over the full period. This tracks evidence from the underlying business operations rather than offering a final verdict on skill versus luck.

What To Watch Instead Of The Streak

Howmet's revenue rose 24.1% in fiscal Q2 2026 from a year earlier. During the August 6, 2026 earnings call, management reported a 37% increase in spares revenue and said gas turbine revenue rose 38%, driven by rising electricity demand from data centers. Management also utilized that call to raise full-year 2026 revenue guidance.

The streak merely records Howmet's share price. The actual business driving those shares is measured in profit. Howmet's profit growth over twelve months will be the central metric to watch when the company reports its third quarter on October 29, 2026.

Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?

A long winning run leaves Howmet Aerospace holders asking how much of it will last. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Glenn Caldicott, CIO of our Boston-based partner firm Empirical Asset Management, an SEC-registered investment adviser, offers a free 15-minute strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.

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