How Low Can AST SpaceMobile Stock Go

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) fell 25% in the week to October 13. At the time, Market Watch reported that the stock was feeling the heat from SpaceX's wireless plans. Shareholders who stay are betting that AST's BlueBird satellites will reach orbit on schedule and deliver management's revenue plan. That bet extends into 2027. So how far did AST SpaceMobile fall when markets turned before, and how long did it take to come back?

What Has AST SpaceMobile Stock Lost In Downturns?

AST stock has lost about twice as much as the S&P 500 during market downturns. Across five such broad-market downturns, AST posted an average decline of 27.4% compared with 13.4% for the broader index-even after completely dodging a decline in one of those five periods. Across the four downturns where the stock did retreat, the shares eventually returned to their previous highs. Over its entire trading history, the losses are even more severe. The stock fell by 91% from its 2021 peak to its 2024 low.

Following the four downturns where the stock did retreat, the shares eventually returned to their previous highs. The median wait to recover from a low was 7.8 months, though two of those recoveries took more than a year. After the 2022 decline, the wait from the low stretched to 20.9 months.

AST SpaceMobile Sells More But Still Spends Much More

The company's revenue is rising fast and, so far, on plan. Management noted that second-quarter revenue was consistent with internal targets. Over the last twelve months, revenue rose 2,257% compared to the twelve months prior. That follows a 249.4% rise a year earlier.

Yet the business still loses far more money than it brings in. Over the last twelve months, AST posted an operating loss that equaled 410.3% of revenue. That figure is down from 5,315% a year earlier.

The company's share count rose 295.4% over three years, meaning each share now represents a smaller slice of the business. AST's debt is more ordinary: it equals 21.3% of its market value, close to the S&P 500's 20.1%.

Management Ties AST SpaceMobile's Revenue Plan To Satellite Launches

Management outlined the dependencies of its revenue plan on the August 10 call. The plan relies on several things, including the successful launch and deployment of AST's BlueBird satellites. During the call, management also reaffirmed its revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million for 2026, which will likely be weighted towards the fourth quarter.

Management expected costs to rise first. On the same call, management noted that adjusted operating expenses, excluding cost of revenues, would increase to about $105 million to $115 million in the third quarter of 2026. The company also projected capital spending of about $350 million to $425 million in that quarter, mainly because of the timing of launch payments.

On October 13, Market Watch reported a warning that AST's commercial rollout could face delays from satellite-launch challenges and SpaceX's growing ambitions. AST had 13 spacecraft in orbit at the time of the August call, and the company targets about 45 BlueBird satellites by early 2027.

Does This Mean You Should Act On ASTS?

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