CBO - Congressional Budget Office

02/10/2026 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 02/11/2026 12:09

10-Year Budget Projections Feb 2026

Contents

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Contents
Chapter 1: The Outlook for Deficits and Debt
Table 1-1. CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, by Category
Table 1-2. CBO's Baseline Projections of Outlays and Deficits, Adjusted to Exclude the Effects of Timing Shifts
Table 1-3. CBO's Baseline Projections of Federal Debt
Table 1-4. Key Projections in CBO's Baseline
Chapter 3: The Spending Outlook
Table 3-1. CBO's Baseline Projections of Outlays
Table 3-2. CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays, Adjusted to Exclude the Effects of Timing Shifts
Table 3-2, Unadjusted. CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays
Table 3-3. Sources of Growth in CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays From 2026 to 2036
Table 3-4. Costs for Mandatory Programs That Continue Beyond Their Current Expiration Date in CBO's Baseline Projections
Table 3-5. Changes in Defense Discretionary Funding From 2025 to 2026
Table 3-6. Changes in Nondefense Discretionary Funding From 2025 to 2026
Table 3-7. CBO's Baseline Projections of Discretionary Spending, Adjusted to Exclude the Effects of Timing Shifts
Table 3-8. Budgetary Effects of Four Alternative Assumptions About Discretionary Funding
Box 3-2 Table. Effects of Sequestration on CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Spending
Chapter 5: Changes in CBO's Baseline Budget Projections Since January 2025
Table 5-1. Changes in CBO's Baseline Projections of the Deficit Since January 2025
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/61882

Table 1-1

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 1-1. CBO's Baseline Budget Projections, by Category
Total
Actual, 2027- 2031 2027- 2036
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
In billions of dollars
Revenues
Individual income taxes 2,656 2,751 2,947 3,044 3,193 3,339 3,461 3,594 3,744 3,903 4,072 4,249 15,985 35,546
Payroll taxes 1,748 1,826 1,897 1,970 2,048 2,132 2,216 2,302 2,389 2,478 2,570 2,666 10,263 22,667
Corporate income taxes 452 404 419 433 452 477 493 510 526 539 552 576 2,274 4,977
Customs duties 195 418 421 424 417 412 405 389 382 382 390 402 2,080 4,025
Other 183 197 201 201 209 235 293 334 351 368 388 408 1,139 2,988
Total 5,235 5,596 5,885 6,071 6,320 6,595 6,869 7,130 7,391 7,669 7,972 8,301 31,741 70,204
On-budget 3,951 4,245 4,481 4,614 4,804 5,019 5,232 5,430 5,629 5,843 6,080 6,340 24,150 53,473
Off-budget 1,284 1,350 1,404 1,458 1,516 1,576 1,638 1,699 1,762 1,826 1,892 1,961 7,591 16,731
Outlays
Mandatory 4,168 4,529 4,783 5,005 5,067 5,375 5,582 5,835 6,277 6,437 6,545 7,028 25,812 57,933
Discretionary 1,872 1,880 1,882 1,929 1,948 1,989 2,024 2,063 2,111 2,147 2,187 2,244 9,772 20,524
Net interest 970 1,039 1,108 1,218 1,324 1,432 1,548 1,670 1,784 1,904 2,019 2,144 6,630 16,152
Total 7,010 7,449 7,772 8,151 8,340 8,796 9,155 9,569 10,172 10,487 10,751 11,416 42,214 94,610
On-budget 5,578 5,928 6,151 6,426 6,513 6,864 7,113 7,409 7,911 8,125 8,286 8,847 33,066 73,644
Off-budget 1,432 1,521 1,621 1,725 1,827 1,932 2,043 2,160 2,261 2,363 2,465 2,569 9,147 20,965
Total deficit (-) -1,775 -1,853 -1,887 -2,080 -2,020 -2,201 -2,286 -2,439 -2,781 -2,819 -2,779 -3,115 -10,473 -24,406
On-budget -1,628 -1,682 -1,670 -1,812 -1,709 -1,845 -1,881 -1,979 -2,281 -2,282 -2,206 -2,507 -8,916 -20,171
Off-budget -148 -171 -218 -267 -311 -356 -405 -460 -499 -537 -573 -608 -1,557 -4,235
Primary deficit (-) -805 -814 -779 -862 -695 -769 -737 -769 -996 -915 -760 -971 -3,843 -8,254
Debt held by the public 30,172 32,095 34,005 36,093 38,103 40,280 42,528 44,922 47,644 50,394 53,103 56,152 n.a. n.a.
Addendum:
GDP 30,362 31,902 33,315 34,666 36,010 37,391 38,813 40,277 41,796 43,373 45,012 46,712 180,195 397,364
As a percentage of GDP
Revenues
Individual income taxes 8.7 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 8.9 8.9
Payroll taxes 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
Corporate income taxes 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
Customs duties 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.0
Other 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8
Total 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.6 17.7
On-budget 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.5
Off-budget 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
Outlays
Mandatory 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.1 14.4 14.4 14.5 15.0 14.8 14.5 15.0 14.3 14.6
Discretionary 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 5.4 5.2
Net interest 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 3.7 4.1
Total 23.1 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.2 23.5 23.6 23.8 24.3 24.2 23.9 24.4 23.4 23.8
On-budget 18.4 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.1 18.4 18.3 18.4 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.9 18.4 18.5
Off-budget 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.3
Total deficit (-) -5.8 -5.8 -5.7 -6.0 -5.6 -5.9 -5.9 -6.1 -6.7 -6.5 -6.2 -6.7 -5.8 -6.1
On-budget -5.4 -5.3 -5.0 -5.2 -4.7 -4.9 -4.8 -4.9 -5.5 -5.3 -4.9 -5.4 -4.9 -5.1
Off-budget -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 -1.1
Primary deficit (-) -2.7 -2.6 -2.3 -2.5 -1.9 -2.1 -1.9 -1.9 -2.4 -2.1 -1.7 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1
Debt held by the public 99.4 100.6 102.1 104.1 105.8 107.7 109.6 111.5 114.0 116.2 118.0 120.2 n.a. n.a.
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Table 1-2

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 1-2. CBO's Baseline Projections of Outlays and Deficits, Adjusted to Exclude the Effects of Timing Shifts
Actual
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
In billions of dollars
Adjustments to exclude effects of timing shifts 0 0 0 -124 124 0 0 0 -166 -12 178 0
Outlays, adjusted
Mandatory 4,168 4,529 4,783 4,887 5,185 5,375 5,582 5,835 6,117 6,425 6,716 7,028
Discretionary 1,872 1,880 1,882 1,923 1,954 1,989 2,024 2,063 2,105 2,147 2,194 2,244
Net interest 970 1,039 1,108 1,218 1,324 1,432 1,548 1,670 1,784 1,904 2,019 2,144
Total 7,010 7,449 7,772 8,028 8,463 8,796 9,155 9,569 10,006 10,475 10,929 11,416
Total deficit (-), adjusted -1,775 -1,853 -1,887 -1,956 -2,143 -2,201 -2,286 -2,439 -2,615 -2,806 -2,957 -3,115
Primary deficit (-), adjusted -805 -814 -779 -738 -819 -769 -737 -769 -830 -903 -938 -971
As a percentage of GDP
Outlays, adjusted
Mandatory 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.1 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0
Discretionary 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8
Net interest 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6
Total 23.1 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.2 24.3 24.4
Total deficit (-), adjusted -5.8 -5.8 -5.7 -5.6 -6.0 -5.9 -5.9 -6.1 -6.3 -6.5 -6.6 -6.7
Primary deficit (-), adjusted -2.7 -2.6 -2.3 -2.1 -2.3 -2.1 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1
Addendum:
Baseline deficit (-), unadjusted
In billions of dollars -1,775 -1,853 -1,887 -2,080 -2,020 -2,201 -2,286 -2,439 -2,781 -2,819 -2,779 -3,115
As a percentage of GDP -5.8 -5.8 -5.7 -6.0 -5.6 -5.9 -5.9 -6.1 -6.7 -6.5 -6.2 -6.7
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Table 1-3

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 1-3. CBO's Baseline Projections of Federal Debt
Billions of dollars
Actual, 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
Debt held by the public at the beginning of the year 28,196 30,172 32,095 34,005 36,093 38,103 40,280 42,528 44,922 47,644 50,394 53,103
Changes in debt held by the public
Resulting from the deficit 1,775 1,853 1,887 2,080 2,020 2,201 2,286 2,439 2,781 2,819 2,779 3,115
Resulting from other means of financing 201 70 22 9 -10 -24 -37 -45 -59 -69 -70 -66
Total 1,977 1,923 1,909 2,088 2,010 2,177 2,249 2,394 2,722 2,750 2,709 3,049
Debt held by the public at the end of the year
In billions of dollars 30,172 32,095 34,005 36,093 38,103 40,280 42,528 44,922 47,644 50,394 53,103 56,152
As a percentage of GDP 99.4 100.6 102.1 104.1 105.8 107.7 109.6 111.5 114.0 116.2 118.0 120.2
Addendum:
Federal financial assets 2,259 2,329 2,351 2,360 2,350 2,327 2,290 2,244 2,185 2,116 2,047 1,981
Debt minus financial assets
In billions of dollars 27,913 29,766 31,653 33,733 35,752 37,953 40,239 42,678 45,459 48,277 51,056 54,172
As a percentage of GDP 91.9 93.3 95.0 97.3 99.3 101.5 103.7 106.0 108.8 111.3 113.4 116.0
Federal Reserve's holdings of debt held by the public 4,201 4,540 4,973 5,484 6,048 6,595 7,067 7,537 8,004 8,496 8,981 9,466
Debt minus financial assets and Federal Reserve's holdings
In billions of dollars 23,712 25,226 26,680 28,249 29,704 31,358 33,172 35,141 37,455 39,782 42,075 44,706
As a percentage of GDP 78.1 79.1 80.1 81.5 82.5 83.9 85.5 87.2 89.6 91.7 93.5 95.7
Gross federal debt 37,373 39,430 41,279 43,297 45,192 47,192 49,218 51,480 54,379 57,359 60,386 63,693
Debt subject to limit 37,526 39,581 41,428 43,446 45,341 47,341 49,368 51,630 54,530 57,510 60,538 63,846
Average interest rate on debt held by the public (percent) 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
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Table 1-4

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 1-4. Key Projections in CBO's Baseline
Percentage of GDP
Annual average
2026 2027 2028- 2031 2032- 2036 2037- 2046 2047- 2056
Revenues
Individual income taxes 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.9
Payroll taxes 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
Corporate income taxes 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3
Customs duties 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7
Other 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0
Total revenues 17.5 17.7 17.6 17.7 18.1 18.6
Outlays
Mandatory
Social Security 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.9
Major health care programs 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.5 7.2 7.9
Other 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3
Subtotal 14.2 14.4 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1
Discretionary 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.6
Net interest 3.3 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.2 6.4
Total outlays 23.3 23.3 23.4 24.1 25.3 27.1
Deficit (-) -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -7.2 -8.5
Debt held by the public at the end of the period 101 102 110 120 144 175
Addendum:
Social Security
Revenues 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4
Outlays 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.9
Contribution to the deficit (-) -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5
Medicare
Revenues 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6
Outlays 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.8 6.6
Offsetting receipts -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.4
Contribution to the deficit (-) -1.9 -1.9 -2.1 -2.5 -3.1 -3.7
GDP at the end of the period (trillions of dollars) 31.9 33.3 38.8 46.7 67.5 95.7
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Table 3-1

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 3-1. CBO's Baseline Projections of Outlays
Total
Actual, 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2027- 2031 2027- 2036
In billions of dollars
Mandatory
Social Security 1,575 1,666 1,769 1,875 1,979 2,083 2,190 2,298 2,409 2,519 2,632 2,747 9,895 22,500
Medicare 1,180 1,287 1,374 1,533 1,470 1,649 1,753 1,867 2,123 2,153 2,155 2,421 7,778 18,497
Medicaid 668 708 726 746 754 777 804 834 870 905 941 981 3,806 8,338
Other spending 1,114 1,281 1,327 1,284 1,326 1,371 1,377 1,400 1,466 1,472 1,458 1,555 6,685 14,036
Offsetting receipts -370 -412 -413 -434 -462 -504 -541 -564 -591 -613 -642 -675 -2,353 -5,438
Subtotal 4,168 4,529 4,783 5,005 5,067 5,375 5,582 5,835 6,277 6,437 6,545 7,028 25,812 57,933
Discretionary
Defense 893 885 901 928 938 966 986 1,006 1,034 1,051 1,068 1,100 4,719 9,979
Nondefense 980 996 981 1,001 1,010 1,023 1,039 1,057 1,076 1,096 1,119 1,144 5,053 10,545
Subtotal 1,872 1,880 1,882 1,929 1,948 1,989 2,024 2,063 2,111 2,147 2,187 2,244 9,772 20,524
Net interest 970 1,039 1,108 1,218 1,324 1,432 1,548 1,670 1,784 1,904 2,019 2,144 6,630 16,152
Total 7,010 7,449 7,772 8,151 8,340 8,796 9,155 9,569 10,172 10,487 10,751 11,416 42,214 94,610
On-budget 5,578 5,928 6,151 6,426 6,513 6,864 7,113 7,409 7,911 8,125 8,286 8,847 33,066 73,644
Off-budget 1,432 1,521 1,621 1,725 1,827 1,932 2,043 2,160 2,261 2,363 2,465 2,569 9,147 20,965
Addendum:
Outlays adjusted to exclude timing shifts
Mandatory outlays 4,168 4,529 4,783 4,887 5,185 5,375 5,582 5,835 6,117 6,425 6,716 7,028 25,812 57,933
Discretionary outlays 1,872 1,880 1,882 1,923 1,954 1,989 2,024 2,063 2,105 2,147 2,194 2,244 9,772 20,524
Total outlays 7,010 7,449 7,772 8,028 8,463 8,796 9,155 9,569 10,006 10,475 10,929 11,416 42,214 94,610
Gross domestic product 30,362 31,902 33,315 34,666 36,010 37,391 38,813 40,277 41,796 43,373 45,012 46,712 180,195 397,364
As a percentage of gross domestic product
Mandatory
Social Security 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.5 5.7
Medicare 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.2 4.3 4.7
Medicaid 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Other spending 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.5
Offsetting receipts -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.4
Subtotal 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.1 14.4 14.4 14.5 15.0 14.8 14.5 15.0 14.3 14.6
Discretionary
Defense 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5
Nondefense 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.7
Subtotal 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 5.4 5.2
Net interest 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 3.7 4.1
Total 23.1 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.2 23.5 23.6 23.8 24.3 24.2 23.9 24.4 23.4 23.8
On-budget 18.4 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.1 18.4 18.3 18.4 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.9 18.4 18.5
Off-budget 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.3
Addendum:
Outlays adjusted to exclude timing shifts
Mandatory outlays 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.1 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 14.3 14.6
Discretionary outlays 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.4 5.2
Total outlays 23.1 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.2 24.3 24.4 23.4 23.8
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Table 3-2

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 3-2. CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays, Adjusted to Exclude the Effects of Timing Shifts
Billions of dollars
Total
Actual, 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2027- 2031 2027- 2036
Social Security
Old-Age and Survivors Insurance 1,418 1,503 1,598 1,697 1,794 1,892 1,992 2,094 2,196 2,299 2,402 2,507 8,972 20,469
Disability Insurance 158 163 171 178 185 191 198 205 212 221 230 239 924 2,031
Subtotal 1,575 1,666 1,769 1,875 1,979 2,083 2,190 2,298 2,409 2,519 2,632 2,747 9,895 22,500
Major health care programs
Medicare 1,180 1,287 1,374 1,452 1,552 1,649 1,753 1,867 2,006 2,145 2,280 2,421 7,778 18,497
Medicaid 668 708 726 746 754 777 804 834 870 905 941 981 3,806 8,338
Premium tax credits and related spending 140 112 93 88 93 100 111 120 125 131 140 150 485 1,151
Children's Health Insurance Program 23 25 26 27 28 24 15 15 15 15 15 15 122 198
Subtotal 2,012 2,132 2,219 2,313 2,426 2,550 2,683 2,836 3,016 3,197 3,377 3,566 12,192 28,184
Income security programs
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program 106 100 97 94 95 96 98 99 100 101 102 103 479 985
Earned income, child, and other tax credits 115 105 101 102 103 102 102 104 103 104 103 104 510 1,028
Supplemental Security Income 65 67 69 71 73 75 78 80 83 85 88 91 365 792
Unemployment compensation 39 45 47 48 49 49 50 52 53 55 56 58 244 518
Child nutrition 35 37 38 40 42 44 46 47 49 51 52 54 211 464
Family support and foster care 38 37 37 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 40 41 187 386
Subtotal 397 389 389 392 399 405 411 421 428 436 442 451 1,996 4,173
Federal civilian and military retirement
Civilian 129 135 140 144 148 152 156 162 168 173 177 182 741 1,604
Military 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 101 104 107 110 113 459 993
Subtotal 210 218 226 234 240 247 254 263 272 279 287 295 1,201 2,597
Veterans' programs
Income security 201 232 248 262 276 289 298 311 325 339 354 370 1,372 3,072
Toxic Exposures Fund 33 50 56 61 65 69 73 76 80 84 88 93 324 746
Other 18 19 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 107 236
Subtotal 251 301 324 343 362 380 394 411 430 449 470 491 1,803 4,055
Other programs
Administration of justice 20 37 47 52 52 51 42 37 27 25 23 24 243 379
Agriculture 23 31 41 38 34 31 30 30 31 32 32 32 175 332
Deposit insurance -32 -22 -20 -104 -12 -13 -14 -14 -23 -15 -16 -17 -162 -246
MEHRCF 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 78 173
Higher education -76 18 21 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 68 131
Defense -1 34 44 29 22 12 7 2 4 3 -0 3 114 126
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 0 0 4 4 5 7 8 8 10 11 12 13 28 83
Other 145 125 117 117 112 99 89 78 73 69 65 65 534 884
Subtotal 92 235 269 163 240 215 192 171 153 157 150 153 1,078 1,862
Mandatory outlays, excluding offsetting receipts 4,537 4,942 5,196 5,321 5,646 5,879 6,123 6,399 6,708 7,038 7,358 7,703 28,165 63,371
Offsetting receipts
Medicare -192 -224 -234 -249 -266 -292 -316 -340 -368 -394 -422 -451 -1,357 -3,332
Federal share of federal employees' retirement
Civil service retirement and other -63 -64 -66 -68 -70 -73 -75 -77 -80 -82 -84 -87 -352 -762
Military retirement -23 -22 -19 -20 -21 -21 -22 -22 -23 -23 -24 -25 -103 -220
Social Security -24 -25 -26 -27 -28 -29 -29 -30 -31 -32 -33 -34 -139 -299
Subtotal -110 -112 -111 -115 -119 -122 -126 -130 -134 -137 -141 -145 -594 -1,281
Receipts related to natural resources -17 -17 -18 -19 -20 -22 -23 -23 -24 -24 -25 -25 -103 -223
MERHCF -11 -13 -15 -15 -16 -17 -18 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -81 -182
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -6 -6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -32 -40 -35 -36 -40 -50 -59 -52 -46 -37 -32 -32 -220 -419
Subtotal -370 -412 -413 -434 -462 -504 -541 -564 -591 -613 -642 -675 -2,353 -5,438
Mandatory outlays, including offsetting receipts 4,168 4,529 4,783 4,887 5,185 5,375 5,582 5,835 6,117 6,425 6,716 7,028 25,812 57,933
Effects that timing shifts have on mandatory outlays in CBO's baseline projections
Medicare 0 0 0 82 -82 0 0 0 117 8 -125 0 n.a n.a
Supplemental Security Income 0 0 0 6 -6 0 0 0 7 0 -7 0 n.a n.a
Military retirement 0 0 0 7 -7 0 0 0 7 1 -8 0 n.a n.a
Veterans' income security 0 0 0 23 -23 0 0 0 27 2 -30 0 n.a n.a
Other programs for veterans 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 n.a n.a
Total 0 0 0 118 -118 0 0 0 160 12 -172 0 n.a n.a
Total mandatory outlays in CBO's baseline projections 4,168 4,529 4,783 5,005 5,067 5,375 5,582 5,835 6,277 6,437 6,545 7,028 25,812 57,933
Addendum:
Outlays, net of offsetting receipts
Medicare 988 1,063 1,140 1,203 1,286 1,356 1,437 1,526 1,638 1,751 1,858 1,970 6,421 15,164
Major health care programs 1,819 1,908 1,985 2,064 2,160 2,258 2,367 2,495 2,649 2,803 2,955 3,115 10,834 24,852
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Table 3-2, unadj

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 3-2, Unadjusted. CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays
Billions of dollars
Total
Actual, 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2027- 2031 2027- 2036
Social Security
Old-Age and Survivors Insurance 1,418 1,503 1,598 1,697 1,794 1,892 1,992 2,094 2,196 2,299 2,402 2,507 8,972 20,469
Disability Insurance 158 163 171 178 185 191 198 205 212 221 230 239 924 2,031
Subtotal 1,575 1,666 1,769 1,875 1,979 2,083 2,190 2,298 2,409 2,519 2,632 2,747 9,895 22,500
Major health care programs
Medicarea,b 1,180 1,287 1,374 1,533 1,470 1,649 1,753 1,867 2,123 2,153 2,155 2,421 7,778 18,497
Medicaid 668 708 726 746 754 777 804 834 870 905 941 981 3,806 8,338
Premium tax credits and related spendingc 140 112 93 88 93 100 111 120 125 131 140 150 485 1,151
Children's Health Insurance Program 23 25 26 27 28 24 15 15 15 15 15 15 122 198
Subtotal 2,012 2,132 2,219 2,395 2,345 2,550 2,683 2,836 3,134 3,205 3,252 3,566 12,192 28,184
Income security programs
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program 106 100 97 94 95 96 98 99 100 101 102 103 479 985
Earned income, child, and other tax creditsd 115 105 101 102 103 102 102 104 103 104 103 104 510 1,028
Supplemental Security Incomea 65 67 69 76 67 75 78 80 89 86 81 91 365 792
Unemployment compensation 39 45 47 48 49 49 50 52 53 55 56 58 244 518
Child nutrition 35 37 38 40 42 44 46 47 49 51 52 54 211 464
Family support and foster caree 38 37 37 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 40 41 187 386
Subtotal 397 389 389 398 393 405 411 421 434 436 435 451 1,996 4,173
Federal civilian and military retirement
Civilianf 129 135 140 144 148 152 156 162 168 173 177 182 741 1,604
Militarya 80 83 86 96 85 95 98 101 111 108 102 113 459 993
Subtotal 210 218 226 240 234 247 254 263 279 280 279 295 1,201 2,597
Veterans' programs
Income securitya,g 201 232 248 285 253 289 298 311 352 342 325 370 1,372 3,072
Toxic Exposures Fundh 33 50 56 61 65 69 73 76 80 84 88 93 324 746
Othera,i 18 19 20 22 20 22 23 24 26 26 26 28 107 236
Subtotal 251 301 324 367 338 380 394 411 458 452 439 491 1,803 4,055
Other programs
Administration of justice 20 37 47 52 52 51 42 37 27 25 23 24 243 379
Agriculture 23 31 41 38 34 31 30 30 31 32 32 32 175 332
Deposit insurance -32 -22 -20 -104 -12 -13 -14 -14 -23 -15 -16 -17 -162 -246
MEHRCF 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 78 173
Higher education -76 18 21 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 68 131
Defense -1 34 44 29 22 12 7 2 4 3 -0 3 114 126
Fannie Mae and Freddie Macj 0 0 4 4 5 7 8 8 10 11 12 13 28 83
Other 145 125 117 117 112 99 89 78 73 69 65 65 534 884
Subtotal 92 235 269 163 240 215 192 171 153 157 150 153 1,078 1,862
Mandatory outlays, excluding offsetting receipts 4,537 4,942 5,196 5,439 5,528 5,879 6,123 6,399 6,867 7,050 7,186 7,703 28,165 63,371
Offsetting receipts
Medicarek -192 -224 -234 -249 -266 -292 -316 -340 -368 -394 -422 -451 -1,357 -3,332
Federal share of federal employees' retirement
Civil service retirement and other -63 -64 -66 -68 -70 -73 -75 -77 -80 -82 -84 -87 -352 -762
Military retirement -23 -22 -19 -20 -21 -21 -22 -22 -23 -23 -24 -25 -103 -220
Social Security -24 -25 -26 -27 -28 -29 -29 -30 -31 -32 -33 -34 -139 -299
Subtotal -110 -112 -111 -115 -119 -122 -126 -130 -134 -137 -141 -145 -594 -1,281
Receipts related to natural resources -17 -17 -18 -19 -20 -22 -23 -23 -24 -24 -25 -25 -103 -223
MERHCF -11 -13 -15 -15 -16 -17 -18 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -81 -182
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -6 -6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other -32 -40 -35 -36 -40 -50 -59 -52 -46 -37 -32 -32 -220 -419
Subtotal -370 -412 -413 -434 -462 -504 -541 -564 -591 -613 -642 -675 -2,353 -5,438
Mandatory outlays, including offsetting receipts 4,168 4,529 4,783 5,005 5,067 5,375 5,582 5,835 6,277 6,437 6,545 7,028 25,812 57,933
Addendum:
Outlays, net of offsetting receipts
Medicare 988 1,063 1,140 1,284 1,204 1,356 1,437 1,526 1,755 1,759 1,733 1,970 6,421 15,164
Major health care programs 1,819 1,908 1,985 2,146 2,078 2,258 2,367 2,495 2,766 2,811 2,830 3,115 10,834 24,852
a. When October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend, certain payments that would have ordinarily been made on that day are instead made at the end of September and are this shifted into the previous fiscal year. Outlays have not been adjusted to remove the effects of those timing shifts.
For additional notes to this table, see the image in the previous sheet.
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Table 3-3

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 3-3. Sources of Growth in CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays From 2026 to 2036
Billions of dollars Percent Percentage points
2026 2036 Total change Total growth Growth from inflation Growth from number of beneficiaries Growth from real spending per beneficiary
Mandatory outlays
Social Security benefits 1,659 2,739 1,080 65 29 19 17
Medicare 1,287 2,421 1,134 88 27 20 41
Medicaid 708 981 273 39 34 -14 18
Premium tax credits 100 132 31 31 35 -30 26
Veterans' income security 231 370 139 60 30 29 1
Federal civilian and military retirement 197 259 62 31 22 5 4
Other 759 802 43 6 21 3 -18
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Table 3-4

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 3-4. Costs for Mandatory Programs That Continue Beyond Their Current Expiration Date in CBO's Baseline Projections
Billions of dollars
Total
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2027- 2031 2027- 2036
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
Budget authority 0 97 93 95 96 98 99 100 101 102 103 479 986
Outlays 0 88 94 95 96 98 99 100 101 102 103 470 976
Veterans' compensation and pension COLAs
Budget authority 0 6 13 19 26 33 40 48 56 65 77 98 385
Outlays 0 6 13 19 26 33 40 48 56 65 77 98 385
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
Budget authority 12 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 87 173
Outlays 13 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 86 172
Children's Health Insurance Program
Budget authority 0 0 0 0 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 31 107
Outlays 0 0 0 0 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 31 107
Commodity Credit Corporation
Budget authority 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 22 21 22 1 79
Outlays 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 19 20 21 1 66
Rehabilitation services
Budget authority 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 24 52
Outlays 0 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 19 45
Child nutrition
Budget authority 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 15
Outlays 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 7 15
Ground transportation programs not subject to annual obligation limitations
Budget authority 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 6
Outlays 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 5
Promoting Safe and Stable Families Program
Budget authority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3
Outlays 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
National Flood Insurance Program
Budget authority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlays 1 1 1 1 0 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 3 2
Ground transportation programs controlled by obligation limitations
Budget Authority 0 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 396 793
Outlays 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Air transportation programs controlled by obligation limitations
Budget authority 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 12 32
Outlays 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total budget authority 13 207 209 222 246 255 270 279 304 313 326 1,139 2,631
Total outlays 15 114 130 138 162 171 181 192 217 228 242 715 1,775
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Table 3-5

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 3-5. Changes in Defense Discretionary Funding From 2025 to 2026
Billions of dollars
2025 2026 Difference Change (percent)
Operation and maintenance 342 338 -4 -1
Military personnel 182 184 2 1
Procurement 174 168 -6 -3
Research and development 141 141 0 0
Other 65 66 0 1
Total defense funding 904 898 -7 -1
Addendum:
Total defense discretionary outlays 893 885 -8 -1
Total defense discretionary and mandatory outlays 891 918 27 3
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Table 3-6

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 3-6. Changes in Nondefense Discretionary Funding From 2025 to 2026
Billions of dollars
2025 2026 Total Change
Nonemergency Emergency Total Nonemergency Emergency Total difference (percent)
Transportation 127 45 172 127 37 164 -8 -5
Veterans' benefits and services 130 0 130 134 0 134 4 3
Education, training, employment, and social services 111 0 111 111 0 111 -0 -0
Income security 102 9 110 110 0 110 0 0
Health 88 1 88 87 1 88 -0 -0
Administration of justice 78 1 79 79 0 79 -0 -0
Natural resources and environment 47 33 80 47 17 64 -16 -20
International affairs 51 0 51 61 0 61 10 21
General science, space, and technology 40 1 42 41 0 41 -1 -1
Community and regional development 37 49 86 38 1 39 -47 -54
General government 20 0 20 20 0 20 0 1
Energy 9 11 20 9 9 18 -2 -9
Medicare 9 0 9 9 0 9 -0 -4
Agriculture 8 31 39 7 0 7 -31 -81
Social Security 6 0 6 6 0 6 0 8
Commerce and housing credit -11 2 -9 -4 1 -4 6 n.m.
Total nondefense funding 850 183 1,033 882 67 948 -84 -8
Addendum:
Outlays from nondefense discretionary funding n.a. n.a. 980 952 44 996 16 2
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Table 3-7

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 3-7. CBO's Baseline Projections of Discretionary Spending, Adjusted to Exclude the Effects of Timing Shifts
Billions of dollars
Total
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2027- 2031 2027- 2036
Budget authority
Defense
Nonemergency spending 893 898 921 944 967 990 1,013 1,037 1,061 1,085 1,110 1,137 4,835 10,265
Emergency spending 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal 904 898 921 944 967 990 1,013 1,037 1,061 1,085 1,110 1,137 4,835 10,265
Nondefense
Nonemergency spending 768 800 814 834 854 872 893 914 935 957 979 1,002 4,267 9,054
Emergency spending 183 67 68 69 71 72 74 75 77 78 80 82 354 747
Subtotal 951 867 882 904 925 945 967 989 1,012 1,035 1,059 1,084 4,622 9,800
Total budget authority 1,856 1,764 1,803 1,848 1,892 1,934 1,980 2,026 2,072 2,121 2,169 2,220 9,457 20,066
Outlays
Defense
Nonemergency spending 893 885 901 923 944 966 986 1,006 1,028 1,050 1,075 1,100 4,719 9,979
Emergency spending 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal 893 885 901 923 944 966 986 1,006 1,028 1,051 1,075 1,100 4,719 9,979
Nondefense
Nonemergency spending 948 952 926 939 945 954 968 985 1,005 1,026 1,048 1,072 4,731 9,868
Emergency spending 32 44 54 61 65 69 71 72 72 70 71 72 321 678
Subtotal 980 996 981 1,001 1,010 1,023 1,039 1,057 1,076 1,096 1,119 1,144 5,053 10,545
Total outlays 1,872 1,880 1,882 1,923 1,954 1,989 2,024 2,063 2,105 2,147 2,194 2,244 9,772 20,524
Addendum:
Effects that timing shifts have on discretionary outlays in CBO's baseline projections 0 0 0 6 -6 0 0 0 6 0 -7 0 0 0
Discretionary outlays in CBO's baseline 1,872 1,880 1,882 1,929 1,948 1,989 2,024 2,063 2,111 2,147 2,187 2,244 9,772 20,524
Outlays from BSCA and IIJA appropriations as specified 32 42 51 53 48 39 30 21 13 6 3 2 221 265
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Table 3-8

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 3-8. Budgetary Effects of Four Alternative Assumptions About Discretionary Funding
Billions of dollars
Total
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2027- 2031 2027- 2036
Discretionary funding increases at the growth rate of nominal GDP after 2026
Increase in the primary deficit 0 17 40 67 96 128 162 198 235 275 317 348 1,536
Debt-service costs 0 0 1 3 7 11 17 25 34 45 58 23 203
Discretionary funding is frozen at the 2026 amount
Decrease (-) in the primary deficit 0 -14 -65 -108 -148 -193 -239 -287 -334 -382 -434 -527 -2,202
Debt-service savings 0 -0 -2 -5 -10 -17 -26 -37 -50 -66 -84 -35 -298
Funding from the IIJA and BSCA does not continue
Decrease (-) in the primary deficit 0 -2 -7 -16 -28 -39 -49 -57 -63 -66 -69 -93 -397
Debt-service savings 0 -0 -0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -7 -9 -12 -15 -5 -54
Additional funding designated as an emergency requirement is included
Increase in the primary deficit 18 39 53 63 70 76 77 79 81 83 85 300 705
Debt-service costs 0 1 3 5 8 11 15 18 22 26 30 30 140
Addendum:
Primary deficit in CBO's baseline 814 779 862 695 769 737 769 996 915 760 971 3,843 8,254
Net outlays for interest in CBO's baseline 1,039 1,108 1,218 1,324 1,432 1,548 1,670 1,784 1,904 2,019 2,144 6,630 16,152
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Box 3-2 Table

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Box 3-2 Table. Effects of Sequestration on CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Spending
Billions of dollars
Total
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2027- 2031 2027- 2036
Change in budget authority
Medicare -25 -26 -30 -28 -32 -34 -36 -17 0 0 0 -150 -203
Defense -2 -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -19 -21
Other -0 0 1 0 -0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 4
Total change in budget authority -27 -32 -33 -31 -35 -37 -36 -15 0 0 0 -168 -219
Change in outlays
Medicare -25 -26 -30 -28 -32 -34 -36 -17 -0 -0 0 -150 -203
Defense -2 -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -0 0 0 0 -19 -21
Other 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 3 3
Total change in outlays -27 -31 -33 -31 -34 -36 -37 -17 -1 -0 -0 -166 -221
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Table 5-1

This file presents data that supplement CBO's February 2026 report The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.
www.cbo.gov/publication/61882
Table 5-1. Changes in CBO's Baseline Projections of the Deficit Since January 2025
Billions of dollars
Total
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2026- 2030 2026- 2035
Deficit in CBO's January 2025 baseline 1,713 1,687 1,911 1,938 2,140 2,233 2,371 2,637 2,597 2,531 9,389 21,758
Legislative changes
Changes in revenues
2025 reconciliation act
Individual income taxes -361 -479 -493 -457 -409 -398 -414 -434 -460 -479 -2,200 -4,386
Corporate income taxes -98 -91 -79 -59 -26 -2 7 1 -2 -3 -354 -352
Customs duties 0 2 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 22 59
Other -1 -13 -16 -17 -17 -19 -21 -22 -24 -27 -64 -177
Subtotal, 2025 reconciliation act -461 -582 -582 -526 -445 -413 -421 -448 -479 -501 -2,595 -4,856
Other legislation -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -7 -12
Total change in revenues -462 -584 -583 -527 -446 -413 -421 -448 -480 -502 -2,603 -4,867
Changes in outlays
Mandatory outlays
2025 reconciliation act
Medicaid -19 -50 -67 -99 -118 -138 -152 -164 -180 -198 -353 -1,184
SNAP -8 -16 -22 -22 -22 -22 -25 -25 -25 -25 -89 -211
Earned income and child tax credits 2 19 19 20 20 21 21 23 22 24 80 190
Immigration enforcement 13 23 33 34 29 19 12 4 1 -1 131 167
Student loans -13 -14 -15 -16 -16 -16 -17 -17 -17 -17 -74 -158
Defense 42 46 27 20 10 5 3 1 1 0 146 156
Premium tax credits and related spending -3 -10 -15 -17 -16 -15 -14 -14 -13 -14 -61 -130
Spectrum auction receipts -0 -0 -2 -6 -13 -20 -22 -16 -6 0 -21 -85
Energy-related tax credits -1 -4 -8 -13 -15 -16 -18 -1 -2 -2 -40 -80
Agriculture 1 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 34 75
Medicare and other health programs 2 5 7 8 8 8 4 1 -1 -3 30 39
Coast Guard 0 1 2 3 4 3 3 4 2 0 11 23
Other 10 12 5 2 0 -0 0 -0 -1 -1 31 29
Subtotal, 2025 reconciliation act 26 20 -26 -75 -120 -162 -195 -196 -211 -228 -175 -1,168
Other legislation 2 0 -2 0 -0 0 0 -7 0 0 1 -5
Subtotal, mandatory 29 21 -28 -75 -120 -162 -195 -203 -211 -228 -174 -1,172
Discretionary outlays
Defense
Nonemergency 24 23 25 27 28 28 29 30 30 31 126 274
Emergency -3 -5 -8 -9 -11 -12 -12 -13 -13 -14 -36 -100
Subtotal, defense 22 17 17 17 17 16 17 17 17 17 90 174
Nondefense
Nonemergency -4 -15 -17 -18 -19 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -73 -177
Emergency -34 -65 -81 -96 -107 -115 -121 -126 -130 -133 -383 -1,007
Subtotal, nondefense -38 -81 -98 -113 -126 -134 -140 -146 -152 -156 -455 -1,183
Subtotal, discretionary -16 -63 -81 -96 -109 -117 -124 -129 -135 -139 -365 -1,010
Net interest (debt service) 5 28 47 64 78 88 95 103 112 122 222 742
Total change in outlays 17 -15 -62 -107 -151 -191 -223 -229 -234 -246 -317 -1,440
Increase or decrease (-) in the deficit from legislative changes 479 569 522 420 295 222 198 220 246 256 2,285 3,427
Economic changes
Changes in revenues
Individual income taxes 112 133 108 75 56 44 39 35 30 28 483 660
Payroll taxes -6 -6 -5 -5 -8 -10 -13 -15 -18 -22 -31 -109
Corporate income taxes 28 38 39 38 37 34 32 29 28 28 179 330
Customs duties -17 -20 -29 -35 -38 -42 -49 -55 -59 -63 -139 -408
Federal Reserve remittances 1 -0 -0 0 3 7 9 12 14 17 3 62
Other 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 23 38
Total change in revenues 122 150 117 77 52 37 21 9 -2 -10 518 573
Changes in Outlays
Mandatory outlays
Social Security 4 13 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 77 193
SNAP 2 6 9 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 40 110
Medicare -0 -0 -1 -2 -4 -7 -9 -12 -15 -17 -7 -67
Veterans' benefits 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 13 37
Medicaid 0 -0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -26
Other -0 1 4 3 3 1 3 2 4 2 11 23
Subtotal, mandatory 7 22 33 33 33 30 30 28 28 25 128 270
Discretionary outlays 0 1 5 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 22 70
Net interest
Effect of interest rates and inflation 16 17 32 53 77 104 129 150 171 189 194 937
Debt service -1 -6 -9 -10 -8 -5 -1 5 13 22 -33 1
Subtotal, net interest 15 11 23 43 68 98 128 156 184 211 160 938
Total change in outlays 22 35 61 83 110 138 168 194 222 245 310 1,277
Increase or decrease (-) in the deficit from economic changes -100 -116 -57 6 58 101 148 185 224 255 -208 704
Technical changes
Changes in revenues
Individual income taxes 32 41 74 121 109 95 101 106 113 111 377 902
Payroll taxes -9 -12 -13 -16 -13 -13 -12 -12 -11 -10 -62 -120
Corporate income taxes -21 4 11 19 16 6 3 2 9 10 30 59
Customs duties 352 353 357 355 351 346 334 330 331 340 1,767 3,449
Other 1 -1 1 2 -24 -21 -2 -0 0 1 -22 -44
Total change in revenues 356 384 429 480 440 412 424 427 442 452 2,089 4,246
Changes in outlays
Mandatory outlays
Medicare 61 83 87 90 95 96 101 122 121 117 415 973
Medicaid 31 39 48 51 61 74 79 91 104 119 230 697
Veterans' benefits 53 57 60 57 62 60 60 65 64 62 289 600
Energy-related tax credits -17 -19 -18 -15 -12 -12 -12 -14 -5 -4 -80 -127
Social Security -3 -5 -9 -8 -10 -11 -13 -14 -15 -16 -35 -105
Premium tax credits and related spending 1 -16 -19 -16 -12 -7 -6 -9 6 -1 -62 -79
SNAP -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -19 -41
Earned income and child tax credits 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 19 29
Agriculture 7 9 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 21 25
Other -30 -3 -5 3 3 -3 3 4 5 8 -31 -14
Subtotal, mandatory 107 144 147 161 186 194 211 244 279 283 746 1,957
Discretionary outlays
Defense -3 1 1 -0 1 2 2 1 1 1 -1 7
Nondefense 3 -8 2 5 2 -0 1 0 -0 0 3 4
Subtotal, discretionary -0 -7 2 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 2 11
Net interest
Debt service -3 -15 -26 -40 -54 -67 -79 -91 -102 -113 -138 -589
Other 12 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 15 17 52 120
Subtotal, net interest 9 -6 -17 -30 -42 -55 -67 -79 -86 -96 -86 -469
Total change in outlays 116 131 133 135 147 142 147 166 193 188 662 1,499
Increase or decrease (-) in the deficit from technical changes -239 -253 -296 -345 -293 -270 -277 -261 -249 -263 -1,426 -2,747
All changes
Total increase or decrease (-) in the deficit 139 200 169 81 61 53 69 143 221 248 651 1,385
Deficit in CBO's February 2026 baseline 1,853 1,887 2,080 2,020 2,201 2,286 2,439 2,781 2,819 2,779 10,040 23,143
Addendum:
Total change in revenues 16 -50 -37 30 46 35 23 -13 -39 -60 4 -49
Total change in outlays 155 151 132 111 106 88 92 130 182 188 655 1,336
Increase or decrease (-) in the primary deficit 111 168 116 4 -43 -78 -88 -36 11 11 355 175
Increase or decrease (-) in the deficit from the change in net interest outlays 29 32 53 77 104 131 157 180 210 236 296 1,211
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CBO - Congressional Budget Office published this content on February 10, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on February 11, 2026 at 18:09 UTC. If you believe the information included in the content is inaccurate or outdated and requires editing or removal, please contact us at [email protected]