As the climate warms, the threat of wildfires is spreading. How can historically cooler and wetter countries prepare

Most wildfires in Europe are caused, intentionally or otherwise, by human activity. However, the spread, speed and intensity of wildfires is strongly affected by the warmer, drier conditions associated with climate change, as well as with changing land use.

According to the European Forest Fire Information System, more than 600 000 hectares of land have been burnt within the countries of the European Union in the first 8 months of 2026. This is below the area recorded by the same date in 2025 (the worst year on record), but it far exceeds the 20-year average of around 280 000 hectares.

While most fires have been large blazes in historically fire-prone countries such as France and Spain, extremely dry conditions are putting many areas in western and central Europe - including the British Isles and southern Scandinavia - at increased risk.

In the immediate future, wildfire risks may be compounded by the developing El Niño, a recurrent natural climate phenomenon, which can further influence temperatures and rainfall patterns and increase the likelihood of climate extremes.

Fires in the Caledonian forests of Scotland

While many countries with a history of wildfires are experiencing more frequent and larger blazes, over longer periods, other countries in traditionally cooler or wetter areas are also preparing for the prospect of dealing with more wildfires.

On 15 July 2026, a wildfire took hold in the Cairngorms mountains of Scotland. The area has experienced wildfires before, but due to this year's exceptionally dry conditions, the fire penetrated the dry peat layer, causing hotspots and flare-ups that resisted containment.

More than 500 firefighters attended the blazes, with aerial support to put out fires and bulldozers called in to dig firebreaks. Nine days after the start of the fire, as high winds pushed the unpredictable blaze towards the village of Nethy Bridge, Police Scotland declared a major incident and many of the 600 residents were evacuated.

James MacEwan lives in the village:

"Day after day without rain caused a great deal of worry in Nethy Bridge. We were very fortunate that the wind remained from the west and took the fire towards the hills, otherwise we would have had a serious threat to property and possibly life. The downside was that this took the fire into relatively inaccessible terrain and made containing it extremely difficult."

It was over a month from the time that the fire started until the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service officially stood down firefighting crews.

Preparing for the future

Dr Will Hayes is a wildfires researcher with the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland's Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society.

"We are seeing growing wildfire concern beyond the Mediterranean, particularly in the Atlantic uplands of Ireland and Scotland, as well as parts of northern and central Europe. These areas are not becoming Mediterranean landscapes, but traditionally wetter, cooler regions are now experiencing more frequent windows where increasing amounts of vegetation is dry enough to burn and fires can spread", he says.

He continues: "People should not assume that wet or green landscapes are immune to fire. During dry, warm and windy periods, vegetation can become highly flammable, even in upland and northern regions. Avoid campfires, barbecues and careless ignition sources during high-risk weather, follow local fire warnings, and remember that small fires can spread quickly when fuel conditions are right."

Assessing national public health risks

Preparedness for wildfires is also important at the national level, says Dr Hayes. "Wildfire prevention is not just about fire services, it is about how landscapes are managed before they burn. Wildfire risk should be treated as a land-use, climate-adaptation and public-health issue, not just an emergency-response problem", he says.

WHO's Strategic Toolkit for Assessing Risks (STAR) methodology enables public health authorities to work alongside other sectors to rapidly conduct a strategic and evidence-based assessment of public health risks using an all-hazards and multisector approach that includes the risk of heat and wildfires. Risk assessments such as STAR are recognized as one of the core elements of both the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). Since 2018, WHO has run 38 National Strategic Risk Assessment workshops in the WHO European Region.

Countries such as Cyprus and Ireland have recently completed their first-ever National Strategic Risk Assessment workshops, bringing together experts from the Ministry of Health and other sectors. The all-hazards workshop used the STAR methodology to identify and prioritize pressing health hazards, which included heatwaves and wildfires, laying the groundwork for smarter, more strategic emergency preparedness and readiness investments.

"Extreme heat and wildfires are no longer only environmental emergencies - they are growing public health threats that directly affect people's health as well as health systems", says Tanja Schmidt, Programme Manager on Preparedness and IHR Capacities in the Health Security Division at the WHO Regional Office for Europe. "Across the Region, countries are increasingly using all-hazards national risk assessments to understand climate-driven risks, identify cascading impacts and prioritize preparedness actions. Ultimately, this helps protect communities, prioritizing those most vulnerable and ensuring that health systems are ready to respond."