Market Briefs | September 17, 2025

Rice
November Rice futures charted a new 5-year low on Monday, trading as low as $11.31. The market recovered a bit on Tuesday, posting a new 7-session high. Resistance begins at last week's high of $11.95, but it might be difficult for futures to build upward momentum during harvest, especially considering market fundamentals. Farmers are making quick work of harvest. Despite a late start to the crop, Arkansas farmers have harvested 60% of planted acres, well ahead of the 5-year average of 42%. The stocks report, released in late August, showed an increase in total stocks of 3.4 million cwt to 53.9 million cwt, up 35% from last year and the largest August rice stocks in nearly 40 years. USDA raised the production estimate due to higher harvested acreage totals, which was partially offset by a reduction in expected yield to 7,559 lbs. Total exports were lowered by 3 million cwt, all from the long-grain cagetory, on uncompetitive prices and the slow pace of sales. The net result of the report was an increase of 8.7 million cwt in ending stocks, which are now pegged at 53.4 million cwt. The 2025/26 season average on-farm price was lowered by $1.00 from the August report. The expected all-rice price is now estimated to be $13.20/cwt and the long grain price is expected to be $12.00.

Corn
With the September contract expired, attention shifts to December futures trading near $4.28. This month's WASDE raised U.S. production to 16.8 billion bushels, the result of more harvested acres offsetting a slightly lower yield. Exports were increased to a record 3.0 billion bushels, keeping ending stocks nearly steady at 2.1 billion. Domestically, crop ratings dipped to 67% good-to-excellent with 7% harvested, while early yield reports are mixed. Export demand remains strong, with inspections running 43% above last year and another 5.6 million bushels sold this week. Technically, resistance sits near $4.35 where we might see some selling emerge.

Soybeans
November futures are trading near $10.44 as the market weighs mixed signals. Strong domestic crush demand is supportive, with August NOPA reporting a record 189.8 mb crush and soybean oil stocks at an eight-month low, while the EPA's proposed biofuel reallocation could further boost oil use. Crop ratings slipped to 63% good-to-excellent with harvest 5% complete. This month's WASDE raised U.S. production slightly to 4.3 billion bushels, with higher crush but reduced exports due to increased global competition. Ending stocks were edged up to 300 million bushels. Globally, soybean production was trimmed to 425.9 million tons, with world ending stocks also lowered. Resistance on the November chart is near $10.50, with support at the 20-day moving average around $10.33.

Wheat
With attention shifting to the December contract, futures are trading near $5.32 after briefly breaking above the 20-day moving average for the first time since July. Demand has been supportive, with Indonesia, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka securing large volumes of U.S. wheat, and Vietnam seeking additional supplies, though Russian exports remain a competitive factor. Harvest progress shows spring wheat at 94% complete, while winter wheat planting is 11% done, trailing the average pace. This month's WASDE raised U.S. exports by 25 million bushels to 900 million, cutting ending stocks to 844 million. Globally, supplies and trade were raised on larger production from Australia, the EU and Russia, with world ending stocks climbing to 264.1 million tons. Resistance on the Kansas City December board is near $5.35, while support is marked by Tuesday's breakout level at the 20-day average.

Cotton
Cotton futures have moved to new 3-week high this week. Fundamental support is coming from a stronger dollar and weaker crude oil prices as well as optimism about trade talks with China, a major buyer of US cotton that has been absent from the market so far this marketing year. The September WASDE showed a few changes, with production up 10,000 bales to 13.2 million. There were no changes to consumption, exports, or ending stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio was unchanged at 26%. The projected season-average upland price was unchanged at 64 cents/pound.

Livestock and Poultry
In the September WASDE, USDA reduced their forecast for beef and pork production on lower slaughter totals and lower dressed weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Sept. 25, which will give more information about hog supplies. They raised the forecast for poultry production on recent production and hatchery data and higher expected weights. Cattle and hog prices are forecast higher for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. Broiler prices are forecast lower for the remainder of the year. October live hogs charted a new high on Tuesday before closing lower and charting a bearish reversal. October live cattle have backed away from the recent contract high, but remain at historically high levels. Support begins near $229.