Is Tempus AI Stock Still Telling You The Same Thing

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Tempus AI (TEM) stock lost 32.5% in the six months to May 11, 2026. From there, the shares gained 74.2% by November 9. Between May and November, Tempus's operating loss shrank sharply against its revenue, and its day-to-day business began to bring in cash. So what had Tempus been telling investors before May 11?

Tempus Spent 2025 Reporting Smaller Losses

Tempus was telling investors that it was moving toward breakeven. The first sign emerged on its February 24, 2025 call to discuss the fourth quarter of 2024. Management said gross profit growth had accelerated to 49.7%, outpacing revenue growth of 35.8%, meaning the company kept more of each sales dollar as gross profit.

Later that year, on its August 8, 2025 call, management said the company was "approaching adjusted EBITDA breakeven," its own profit measure. The quarterly filings pointed the same way. Tempus's operating loss came to 26.9% of revenue in the quarter ended March 2025 and 16.7% in the quarter ended December 2025, filed on February 24, 2026. In each quarter in between, the loss was a smaller share of revenue than in the one before.

The final filing before the stock run went the other way. In the quarter ended March 2026, filed on May 5, the operating loss widened to 24.3% of revenue. That figure was smaller than a year earlier but well above December's level. A reader in early May saw a year of narrowing losses followed by a single quarter that broke the pattern. The sign was there for a patient reader, though not an obvious one.

What Had Changed At Tempus By November?

By November, Tempus was losing less on each dollar of sales than a year before. In the quarter ended September 2026, reported on November 2, the company's operating loss came to 13.8% of revenue, compared with 18.3% a year earlier. The stock's gain was many times that of the S&P 500, which rose 2.4% over the same six months.

The stock's rise was not a straight line. Shares closed as low as $41.55 on July 29, 2026, below where the six months began, meaning a buyer in May first sat through a further fall. Peers rose too: Guardant Health, Natera and IQVIA each gained more than 60% over the same dates, so much of the move was shared across the group.

Is Tempus's Loss Still Getting Smaller Now?

On the latest figures, yes. Over the twelve months to September 2026, Tempus's operating loss came to 18.5% of revenue, its smallest at any quarter-end in records going back to the end of 2021. In the September quarter alone, its operations brought in $9.22 million of cash, against an outflow of $120 million a year earlier, though free cash flow, after capital spending, was still slightly negative. Management expects adjusted EBITDA of about $65 million for 2026.

Tempus is also about to take on a business that loses money. On the November 2 call, management said Personalis loses money on the tests it runs today, and that after its pending acquisition of Personalis, Tempus will have to absorb some of those losses, though management still expects EBITDA to improve. Personalis shareholders are scheduled to vote on the deal on November 30.

Tempus's operating loss against its revenue is the number to watch in its fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027.

Does This Mean You Should Act On TEM?

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