New CNAS Report Warns U.S. Aid Cuts Could Undermine Democracy in South Asia and Fuel Chinese Influence

Washington, May 15, 2025 - Today, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, Democracy in South Asia Amid U.S. Aid Cuts: What's at Stake for Great Power Competition, by Lisa Curtis, Kareen Hart, and Keerthi Martyn.

The report examines how the Trump administration's recent foreign assistance cuts could weaken democratic governance in South Asia and provide the People's Republic of China (PRC) with an opening to expand its authoritarian influence. It highlights how drastic cuts to U.S. foreign assistance could remove one of the United States' most important tools for fostering democratic societies and accountable governments that are more likely to resist Chinese influence.

Supporting democracy overseas has long been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. Today, it is also an essential tool for countering growing PRC influence. The PRC undermines democratic institutions in vulnerable countries through the Belt and Road Initiative, using opaque business deals and bribery to empower local elites and erode public trust. The authors argue that, at its core, great power competition is not only about military and economic competition but also about whether societies are free to choose their leaders or be dominated by centralized, autocratic regimes. The report warns that the Trump administration's January 2025 decision to eliminate nearly all foreign assistance weakens U.S. efforts to compete in this arena.

"Support for democratic governance advances both U.S. values and its national security goals," said Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS and former National Security Council senior director for South and Central Asia during the first Trump administration. "Restoring this support is critical to competing with China and ensuring the long-term stability and prosperity of South Asia."

The report highlights several key policy recommendations for promoting democracy and competing more effectively with China in South Asia, noting the United States should:

• Establish a coordinator for countering foreign propaganda in the White House to lead interagency efforts to combat PRC propaganda;
• Revive the Blue Dot Network;
• Engage Asian donors to broaden assistance to democratic governance;
• Continue to fund and support legitimate investigative journalists and media outlets to promote press freedom;
• Tackle foreign propaganda by funding media literacy courses;
• Expand support for election integrity in South Asia to encourage regional stability;
• Sustain visa restrictions on individuals and groups who undermine democracy, focusing immediately on Bangladesh ahead of upcoming elections;
• Foster inclusive political participation for women, youth, and minority groups across the region;
• Support women in Afghanistan; and
• Support the roadmap for engaging the Taliban and encouraging an inclusive political process from the 2023 United Nations Security Council independent assessment on Afghanistan.

The full report can be read here.

For more information or to schedule an interview with the report's authors, please contact Alexa Whaley at [email protected].