New climate roadmap outlines pro-active strategy for livestock management in East Africa

As droughts recur, heat stress rises, and floods become more frequent, East Africa's livestock systems are increasingly vulnerable to interconnected risks related to feed, water, heat, disease, and markets. Seeking to transition from crisis response to proactive, data-driven resilience, the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) convened a regional workshop on geospatial assessment of livestock vulnerability in Eastern Africa.

Key decision-makers and technical experts from Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Tanzania joined the 19 November 2025 workshop, whose goal was to co-design a joint, high-tech framework to map, anticipate, and respond to escalating climate risks. Participants included development partners and government representatives from the four focus countries, which were selected based on their high vulnerability to climate shocks in the livestock sector and their strategic commitment to climate action. This work is part of ILRI's ongoing commitment under the CGIAR Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods (SAAF) program to deliver climate-resilient livestock solutions in the region -alongside technical specialists.

Reducing the vulnerability of livestock systems

Discussions centered on how geospatial technology can support transforming the three key components of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework:

• Exposure: The extent to which a livestock system meets a stressor, such as recurrent droughts, floods, heatwaves, or market price volatility.
• Sensitivity: The degree to which a system is affected by a stressor, including how forage shortages reduce milk yield or how animal health responds to climate extremes.
• Adaptive capacity: The ability of livestock systems and households to adjust, cope, or recover from shocks through strategies such as diversification and improved access to support services.

Ambica Paliwal (senior scientist - livestock and landscape geospatial technology, ILRI) kicked off the dialogue by demonstrating the power of earth observation technology: "Predictive, location-specific intelligence can effectively manage the multi-dimensional risks our livestock systems face. This technology involves integrating earth observation data (such as satellite imagery for vegetation, land surface temperature, and rainfall) with ground-level socio-economic data and animal health records. Spatial risk mapping can deliver reliable insights in data-scarce areas, providing consistent and scalable monitoring across all four countries."

Afterwards, Teferi Demissie (senior scientist - climate information and agro-advisory, ILRI) detailed the urgency of ongoing climate impacts, presenting data on how extreme events-from rising heatwaves to altered rainfall patterns-are directly compromising the quantity and quality of feed and water, and changing the spread of livestock diseases. For instance, up to 62% of cattle were killed in some areas of Ethiopia during the 1998/1999 drought. Climate change also alters the epidemiology of diseases, including the expansion of vectors, such as ticks and mosquitoes, and vector-borne diseases.

And Jacob Emanuel (senior researcher - climate and livestock systems, ILRI) challenged participants to assess risk and vulnerability across the landscape, examining the "boundaries of adaptation".

"Current coping strategies are no longer sufficient, and systemic transformation (like new markets or technology) is required to drive systemic transformation," Emanuel said.

A roadmap for regional collaboration

The intensive technical and policy discussions culminated in a concrete, four-point roadmap for regional collaboration and action:

1. Develop a shared regional vulnerability assessment framework based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity insights from all stakeholders.
2. Assess exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to identify livestock systems and regions facing the highest overall vulnerability.
3. Identify data gaps and assess available datasets to inform a consistent, regional vulnerability-mapping framework for eastern Africa.
4. Strengthen collaboration amongst stakeholders to generate policy-relevant evidence that will guide resilience planning and targeted livestock interventions.

Implementation of this roadmap will be led by a regional technical working group comprised of ILRI scientists, government representatives, and technical specialists from the four focus countries. This group will work to finalize the shared vulnerability framework and key data dashboards, culminating in a follow-up policy dialogue workshop in mid-2026 to ensure the findings directly inform national resilience plans.

The unified roadmap will ensure that the response to climate change is no longer a scramble but a calculated, shared strategy in the region. Vulnerability assessment tools and the resulting data will be made publicly available on the ILRI and CGIAR data platforms to maximize access for all stakeholders. The framework itself will be jointly owned by the participating East African governments through the regional technical working group, establishing it as a collective regional public good.

By turning geospatial intelligence into targeted action, this partnership visualizes a more resilient and predictable future for the region's livestock and the communities who rely on them.

This work is supported by the CGIAR science program on Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods (SAAF) and the Digital Transformation Accelerator (DTA).

By Rahel Abiy, with contributions from Terry Mwanda, Paul Karaimu, Ambica Paliwal, and Fredah Cherotich.