Why Are Investors Paying Less For Hayward’s Profit

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Investors typically view a lower price-to-earnings multiple, the amount they pay for each dollar of profit, as the mark of a cheaper stock. Hayward Holdings (HAYW) (HAYW) appears to fit that pattern. Three years ago, the company's shares traded at 45.9 times profit. At the latest close, they traded at 19.5 times. So does a multiple that has fallen this far make Hayward stock cheaper?

Hayward Stock Rose While Its Multiple Fell

Hayward's share price rose 10.4% from late September 2023 to the latest close. As recently as the end of September 2026, though, the shares were about 13% below their late-September 2023 price. Over those same three years, investors came to pay far less for each dollar of the company's profit. The stock price went up while the multiple went down.

How Much Has Hayward's Profit Grown?

Hayward earned $170 million in profit over the latest twelve months, against $65.6 million in the twelve months to September 2023.

Profit is now 2.6 times what it was three years ago, though it is still below its level of four years ago. Revenue rose only about a fifth over the same three years, so profit grew far faster than sales.

Hayward designs and makes pool and outdoor living technology. Residential pool products brought in 90% of its revenue in fiscal 2025. Management said on the October 28, 2026 call that more than 85% of sales come from the existing installed base, meaning pools already built. Third-quarter sales rose 6% on higher prices and volumes, management said.

Does A Lower Multiple Make Hayward Cheaper?

Not in the way most investors read it. The multiple of three years ago was also Hayward's highest at any fiscal quarter end since late 2021, and it arrived right after profit fell 71% in a year. Buyers then paid the most for each dollar of profit at a time when Hayward earned far less. This suggests they expected profit to climb, and it did.

A high multiple holds only if the expected growth arrives. As a case in point, Tesla is priced at about 12 times sales on its FSD bet, though FSD is in fewer than 1 in 170 American vehicles. Read Trefis Big Story: How Tesla Blundered.

Hayward's figures trace a familiar curve: The multiple was highest when profit was low and expected to grow, and it came down as the profit arrived. It has risen again since the end of September, climbing from 15.3 to 19.5 times the same profit as the stock returned 27.2% in a month. The largest single gain was 13.5% on October 28, the day Hayward reported third-quarter results and raised its 2026 guidance. A buyer today does pay less for each dollar of profit than a buyer in 2023 did. But that earlier buyer was paying for the growth that has since happened. Measured to the latest close, the multiple fell because profit grew, not because the share price was marked down.

Where Is Hayward On That Curve Now?

Hayward's profit is still climbing, though more slowly over the latest twelve months. It grew 23.1%, after a 45.2% increase the year before. The September quarter was stronger, with profit up 35% from a year earlier. At the latest close, Hayward's multiple is also below the S&P 500's 22.8, a comparison with the market rather than with Hayward's own past.

Profit also grew much faster than sales, which rose 7.6% over the latest twelve months. When the company reports in February 2027, Hayward's profit growth from here, against the latest year's pace, is the figure to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On HAYW?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices - the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.

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