Speech by Minister for Defence Mr Chan Chun Sing at the 14th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting Special Address on 19 Jan 2026

A very good evening, ladies and gentlemen. A warm welcome to all senior officials and security experts here today.

Your participation underscores the importance of platforms like the Sherpa meeting. Your discussions will help shape the Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) later this year.

I would also like to thank Dr. Bastian and the International Institute for Strategic Studies for organising this year's Sherpa meeting. Thank you, Bastian and your staff.

In these unpredictable times, platforms like Sherpa and the upcoming SLD are critical for constructive dialogue and decisive action, and avoiding lamentation or resignation.

Three Propositions

There is a well-known saying, that "there are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen." Recent months have felt like the latter. The rules-based global order appears to be fading into history. Many fear it is being replaced by a world where "might is right". For some, this might be a reversion to the norm in history. This shift is deeply concerning, especially for smaller states.

At the same time, the ability of international and multilateral institutions to set norms and enforce rules is weakening. Urgent crises also threaten our capacity to address longer-term risks to our future security. However, as we believe, those who fail to prepare, must prepare to fail.

So, where does this leave us? What can we do? More importantly, what should we do? Let me offer three propositions for us to consider, as we navigate these turbulent or interesting times.

Proposition 1: Smaller States Must Build Capabilities to Stay Relevant

All states, especially smaller states, must build capabilities to stay relevant. When I say small, it is all relative. Most of us are small, if not smaller states. As the rules-based order recedes, and a more transactional and self-interested world emerges, smaller states - and small states - must build real capabilities. This will ensure we remain relevant, and secure our seats at the table.

The previous rules-based order enabled smaller states like Singapore to survive and thrive. It provided predictability for security and economic activities, and supported growth and stability. A growing world is less dangerous than a stagnant one. But when predictability unravels, growth falters. Insecurity rises, and a negative feedback loop takes hold.

Smaller states must not be under any illusion. We must devote attention to our own security and relevance. Without capabilities, we risk irrelevance. Irrelevance forces us into false and dangerous choices. If we are not able to speak for ourselves, others will speak for us.

Singapore firmly believes that taking sides breeds irrelevance. Remaining relevant requires us to pull our own weight. This means investing in security, building partnerships, upholding international law, and building real, substantive capabilities, including in the military. Singapore has consistently invested heavily in our defence, and will continue to do so. We have done this since 1965, and this will not change. We have also placed strong emphasis on platforms like the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) and the ADMM-Plus, which has enabled practical military dialogue and cooperation. These mechanisms will remain vital, especially for shared, non-traditional security challenges, such as humanitarian aid and disaster relief.

Strengthening our capabilities allows us to stand on our own feet and maintain relevance. This is how we keep our seat at the table, and make sure it counts. As one of our former Deputy Prime Ministers always reminded us, "If one is not at the table, one will be on the menu."

Proposition 2: Like-Minded States Must Uphold Rules and Norms

Second, like-minded states must uphold rules and norms. Even in the absence of strong global leadership, like-minded states have the agency and responsibility to uphold rules and norms, at least at the regional or sectoral level. I must emphasise this - we all have the agency and the responsibility to uphold rules and norms.

When global mechanisms weaken, responsibility does not disappear. It shifts. Weakening mechanisms do not justify abandoning the principles they were meant to uphold. Coalitions of like-minded countries with shared interests can take the lead. Just as the traffic rules still matter when traffic lights fail, it is in our enlightened self-interest to abide by, and uphold, the rules of the international system.

We can also lead in developing new frameworks, that can lay the groundwork for others to join, when they are ready. In the economic domain, initiatives like the Future of Investment and Trade (FIT) Partnership demonstrate how like-minded partners can build momentum through cooperation, and facilitate global economic growth.

Proposition 3: Develop New Norms for Emerging Challenges

Third, we need to develop new norms for emerging challenges, notwithstanding the tyranny of the current moment. We must not lose sight of the need to develop new norms for emerging challenges. Today's challenges demand attention; there is no doubt about that. But we must also look beyond. Risks in domains such as cyber and artificial intelligence are only beginning to surface. Their short-term effects may seem manageable, but their long-term impact could be profound.

According to Amara's Law, "we tend to overestimate the impact of technologies in the short run, and underestimate their effect in the long run." This is why we must establish guardrails for technology - not to constrain progress, but to ensure innovation strengthens security, and reduces the risk of miscalculation. Even where frameworks exist, they have not always kept pace with change. The issue of the protection and security of our critical underwater infrastructure is one such example. In such cases, like-minded states must still come together to clarify principles, reinforce international law, and update existing frameworks, where necessary.

These emerging challenges also present new opportunities for countries who are not geographically near one another to work together. Today, challenges in the information, cyber, or the critical underwater infrastructure domains present opportunities for countries that are far apart to work together. This is because an attack on one part of such infrastructure, is an attack on the entire network which has implications for all of us. So, it behoves us to work together to address emerging challenges, notwithstanding our focus on challenges that are presented here and now. We must never forget the long term, even as we deal with the short term.

Conclusion

Let me conclude with a simple point. This is a difficult period. This is a period of profound change. But this is not a period of hopelessness. Even in a fragmented world, all states, including smaller ones, retain agency and responsibility. We can reinforce what works, adapt what no longer does, and shape new norms for the challenges ahead. The only way we lose that agency, is if we fail to exercise it.

The discussions here at the Sherpa meeting matter. They sustain the habits of cooperation and dialogue that underpin peace and security, as Bastian has reminded us.

Thank you for your participation, and I wish you a meaningful and productive Sherpa meeting. Thank you.

Chan Chun Sing: Constructive Dialogue and Decisive Action Critical Amidst Turbulence