Historically low yields mean harvest 2026 continues to disappoint

Prolonged hot and dry weather has also resulted in significant variation in yield and quality across many crops, according to our second harvest progress report of 2026.

Wheat

With 85% of the wheat area now cut, quality has generally been good, but average yields remain 13% below the five-year average, unchanged from our first report of this year.

As combines have moved north into wheat crops in Scotland, the north of England, and Northern Ireland, the latest results suggest the impact of the difficult growing season has been widespread.

Barley

With 98% cut, winter barley yields remain close to the five-year average, although there remains considerable variation in both yields and quality.

The picture for spring barley is considerably more challenging with what is shaping up to be the lowest yields since comparable records began in 1999.

With 54% cut, average yields are around 26% below the five-year average, while quality is too variable to present a meaningful average picture.

Oats and oilseed rape

Oats show a similar trend with yields currently down 21% and pointing to a 46-year low with quality too variable to summarise.

Oilseed rape is the only exception, with average yields currently 18% above the five-year average with 95% of the crop cut.

Harvest remains exceptionally early overall, although rainfall has slowed progress in some parts of Scotland and the north of England.

Helen Plant, AHDB Senior Cereals & Oilseeds Analyst, said:

"The disappointing yields we are seeing are a consequence of another year where rainfall from spring onwards has been in short supply. Crop moisture levels are higher further north but yields generally remain disappointing and highly variable.

"The variation we are seeing is down to a number of factors, including soil type and moisture retention, drilling date, use of organic fertilisers, preceding crops and variety and seed type."

Anthony Hopkins, AHDB's Director of Cereals and Oilseeds, added:

"We had hoped that average yields might improve as harvest progressed into areas less affected by the prolonged hot and dry weather. So far, the evidence suggests that hasn't happened.

"While there are exceptions - particularly the more positive picture for oilseed rape - this is another difficult harvest for many growers. The cumulative effect of successive poor harvests will be placing immense financial pressure on many arable businesses right now at a time when margins were already under strain."