26th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference: The Evolving Landscape of Global Trade and Financial Integration

The international economy is undergoing profound and rapid transformations, driven by a complex interplay of economic, technological, and geopolitical forces. Shifts in trade networks, evolving patterns in capital flows, the rise of digital innovation, and the risk of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation are reshaping the global landscape of trade and financial integration. These changes present both opportunities and challenges for policymakers, businesses, and researchers, through their impact on economic stability, development, and the distribution of benefits and risks across countries. Understanding these dynamics is essential for fostering inclusive growth, managing cross-border spillovers, and ensuring resilience in an interconnected world.

To delve into these issues, the 2025 IMF Annual Research Conference will bring together academics and policy makers, promote innovative research, and provide a platform for a fruitful exchange of views. The conference is open to the public and registration is required. Registration will include all conference sessions, the Mundell-Fleming Lecture, and the Policy Panel.

Registration

Please note that registration for this event is now closed.

Agenda

Thursday, November 6, 2025

9:20-9:30 am - Opening Remarks

• Dan Katz (First Deputy Managing Director, IMF)

9:30-11:45 am - Session I: Tariffs and Global Imbalances

• Chair: Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution)
• The Optimal Macro Tariff
  Authors: Oleg Itskhoki (Harvard University) and Dmitry Mukhin (London School of Economics)
  Discussant:Manuel Amador (University of Minnesota)
• Tariffs and Retaliation: A Macroeconomic Analysis
  Authors: Stéphane Auray (CREST-Ensai), Michael Devereux (University of British Columbia), and Aurélien Eyquem (University of Lausanne)
  Discussant:Louphou Coulibaly (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
• Tariffs and Technological Hegemony
  Authors: Luca Fornaro (CREI) and Martin Wolf (University of St. Gallen)
  Discussant:Fabrizio Perri (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

12:00-1:30 pm - Lunch Break

1:30-3:00 pm - Policy Panel: A World in Transition: Are We Ready to Adapt?

• Moderator: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)
• Panelists:
  
  • Hélène Rey (London Business School)
  • Kristin Forbes (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
  • Philip R. Lane (European Central Bank)
  • Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput (Former Governor, Bank of Thailand)

3:00-3:15 pm - Coffee Break

3:15-4:45 pm - Session II: Geoeconomics in a Fragmented World

• Chair: Maria Soledad Martinez Peria (Assistant Director, Research Department, IMF)
• Geoeconomic Pressure
  Authors: Christopher Clayton (Yale University), Antonio Coppola (Standford University), Matteo Maggiori (Standford University), and Jesse Schreger (Columbia University)
  Discussant:Thomas Drechsel (University of Maryland)
• Geopolitical Risk and Global Banking
  Authors: Friederike Niepmann (Federal Reserve Board) and Leslie Shen (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
  Discussant:Goetz Von Peter (Bank for International Settlements)

Friday, November 7, 2025

9:00-10:30 am - Session III: Shifting US Exorbitant Privilege

• Chair: Giovanni Dell'Ariccia (Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF)
• The United States and its Creditors: How Risky is the US External Position?
  Authors: Anusha Chari (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (The Brookings Institution)
  Discussant:Philippe Bacchetta (University of Lausanne)
• Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege
  Authors: Wenxin Du (Harvard University), Ritt Keerati (Federal Reserve Board), and Jesse Schreger (Columbia University)
  Discussant:Zhengyang Jiang (Northwestern University)

10:30-10:45 am - Coffee Break

10:45 am-12:15 pm - Session IV: Trade Fragmentation and Monetary Policy

• Chair: Tobias Adrian (Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF)
• The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Tariffs
  Authors: Javier Bianchi (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis), Louphou Coulibaly (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
  Discussant:Jeongwon Son (International Monetary Fund)
• Trade Fragmentation, Inflationary Pressures and Monetary Policy
  Authors: Ludovia Ambrosino (London Business School), Jenny Chan (Bank of England), Silvana Tenreyro (London School Economics)
  Discussant:Damien Capelle (International Monetary Fund)

12:15-1:30 pm - Lunch Break

1:30-3:00 pm - Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Financial Repression in the 21st Century
Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics)
Introduction by: Kristalina Georgieva (Managing Director, IMF)
Moderator: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF)

3:00-3:15 pm - Coffee Break

3:15-5:30 pm - Session V: Reshaping Global Supply Chains

• Chair: Petia Topalova (Division Chief, Research Department, IMF)
• An Anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US Supply Chain Trade
  Authors: Davin Chor (Dartmouth College) and Laura Alfaro (Harvard University)
  Discussant:Alen Mulabdic (The World Bank)
• Effective Protection with Global Value Chains
  Authors: Emily J. Blanchard (Dartmouth College), Mitchell Boice (University of Notre Dame), and Robert C. Johnson (University of Notre Dame)
  Discussant:Andreas Moxnes (BI Norwegian Business School)
• Accommodating Emerging Giants in the Global Economy
  Authors: Benny Kleinman (Stanford University), Ernest Liu (Princeton University), and Stephen J. Redding (Princeton University)
  Discussant:Michael Waugh (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

5:30 pm - Closing Remarks

Organizing Committee:

Jiaqian Chen (IMF)
Nikhil Patel (IMF)
Emine Boz (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review)
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review and the University of Pennsylvania)

Conference Coordinators:

Luisa Calixto
Daniela Rojas
Nicole Jales
Tracey Lookadoo (Former IMF)