European Union: EU Olive Oil Outlook 2025

The EU is the world's largest producer of olive oil, accounting for well over half of global supply. In MY 2025/26, Post projects a continued recovery of the EU olive oil sector from recent droughts, with production stabilizing, consumption rebounding, and trade flows adapting to both internal and external market dynamics. The MY 2025/26 olive oil production in the EU is expected to stay marginally below previous season levels, as long-awaited fall precipitation only arrived in the second half of November, leaving little room for initial production forecasts to expand. The larger availability of olive oil in MY 2024/25 allowed for larger sales within the EU, and for a recovery in exported volumes, with relatively smaller import needs.