Can a Shifting World Order Help Deliver Progress at the UN Climate Summit

This blog was posted on Backchannel on Sept. 18.

With the world in turmoil, latest developments in global climate diplomacy are hard to spot. But the urgency in the latest climate science is unmistakable, as is the evidence of costly and deadly climate impacts. Just this year, climate-fueled disasters have included devastating floods in Pakistan, catastrophic wildfires in Spain, and extreme heatwaves across Europe and the United States.

Next week world leaders will have an opportunity to demonstrate that they understand the seriousness of the climate crisis. Alongside the UN General Assembly (UNGA) meetings in New York City, the UN Secretary General will convene a high-level Climate Summit on September 24, and Climate Week will take place September 21-28.

Can the gap between science and action be narrowed? What does it mean for the world if our leaders fail to rise to the challenge (again!)-and are there reasons for optimism even in these dark times?

Scientists warn that there is a high likelihood that the world will breach the 1.5°C mark on a long-term basis within the next decade. We already crossed it for a full year in 2024. At the rate we are going, we could be on track for over 3°C of global average temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. That would be unacceptable, unforgivable.

The next round of countries' emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement-aka nationally determined contributions (NDCs)-are due this year before COP30. We need to see significantly higher ambition to have any chance of keeping 2°C within reach, let alone 1.5°C. And that will also require clear plans to transition away from fossil fuels, including sharp cuts within this decade.

Yet fossil fuel entities and their political allies continue to hold sway over countries' energy policies and are showing up at the international climate talks in ever larger numbers to directly interfere with the outcomes. With climate impacts mounting, robust investments in climate adaptation are equally urgent.

The reasons for gloom are many and it's important to be clear-eyed about them. Here in the United States, for example, an increasingly authoritarian and anti-science government is shredding clean energy and climate policies, stymying progress on emissions reductions, and pushing fossil fuels while invoking a fake "energy emergency."

True, there is no pathway to meeting global climate goals that doesn't require serious action from the US. But glimmers of potential new ways forward are also there to see. And they're all the more necessary and galvanizing because global climate action was already in trouble before the latest Trump administration came along.

A multipolar world order is upon us, where a few rich and powerful nations such as the United States and the European Union countries will no longer be able to unilaterally dictate the terms on climate negotiations-or trade or security negotiations, for that matter.

Actions that China takes, or that the BRICS nations take together, will be hugely consequential for the trajectory of the climate crisis. China's ability to manufacture, quickly deploy, and export clean energy-as well as whether it turns down coal fast enough-will be a huge factor in the global clean energy transition. India's impressive deployment of solar energy has helped it meet its 2030 target of 50% non-fossil electricity capacity five years early, although it will require significant investment to further accelerate that momentum. Brazil, the host of COP30, is urging countries to follow through on actual implementation of climate commitments, not just vague, empty promises to do something in the future.

For millions of people around the world, their livelihoods, their ability to escape poverty and their right to live in healthy, thriving communities are increasingly threatened by climate change, primarily caused by heat-trapping emissions from richer countries. This is no distant danger but a reality at their doorsteps today, that science shows will only get worse.

Richer nations' continued refusal to live up to their responsibilities on climate finance is a festering injustice that directly damages the trust and goodwill needed to reach and deliver on ambitious global agreements. This legacy of inaction in the face of facts and crises will not be forgotten. It's no surprise that Global South communities and nations are turning to the courts to find justice.

The headwinds to climate progress can't be underestimated but the changing world order could unlock progress in unexpected ways. At the UN Climate Summit next week, we need to see world leaders step up with resolve to isolate bad actors and take meaningful actions toward the goals of the Paris Agreement. This time, explicitly with the aim of meeting the needs and aspirations of everyday people across the world, including the global majority-Black, Brown, and Indigenous people-rather than conceding the future of the planet to the dictates of the rich and powerful.