Patrolling Pratas: From Peripheral Concern to a New Normal

Pratas Island lies at the northern edge of the South China Sea under the administration of Taiwan. Although it has not drawn the same attention as potential flashpoints like the Kinmen and Matsu Islands in the Taiwan Strait, recent analysis has highlighted Beijing's deployment of oil and gas rigs in waters near Pratas. Less examined, however, has been the trajectory of China Coast Guard (CCG) and Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) operations around the island itself.

To address this gap, AMTI analyzed Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from January 2021 through December 2025 to track CCG and MSA patrols around Pratas. This data was supplemented with press releases on Chinese law enforcement activity issued by Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) to create a more complete picture of activity near the island. The analysis examined CCG and MSA activity within the 12-nautical-mile territorial sea around Pratas and the contiguous zone that extends another 12 nautical miles. Each transmission from a unique vessel on a unique date was counted as a single entry.

A Look at the Data

Between 2021 and 2025, a total of 24 unique CCG and MSA vessels were observed broadcasting AIS signals or were reported by Taiwan's CGA operating around Pratas, accounting for 94 total days of activity.

No Chinese law enforcement vessels were observed operating around Pratas in 2021, and only a small number of vessels began conducting patrols in 2022 and 2023. This rose dramatically in 2024 with the CCG and MSA patrolling for 25 days, followed by an even more dramatic rise to 60 days in 2025.

When patrols began in 2022 and 2023, they were only observed operating within the contiguous zone. By 2024, however, two vessels were observed operating inside the territorial sea and three within the contiguous zone. In 2025, the scale expanded considerably, with as many as 23 vessels recorded operating within the contiguous zone.

Additional Reporting

While AIS data offers essential insights into quantitative trends, other data points also support an increasing focus on Pratas from Beijing.

In some cases, CCG activity around Pratas has occurred during major exercises in the Taiwan Strait. During the Joint Sword-2024A exercises in May 2024, AMTI found AIS data showing CCG 3102 operating approximately 4.5 nautical miles from the island's contiguous zone. And during Strait Thunder-2025A in April 2025, CCG 3105 was observed within the territorial waters of Pratas while CCG 3305 patrolled inside the contiguous zone.

Additionally, a People's Liberation Army (PLA) drone reportedly entered Pratas's airspace in January 2026. By February 2026, Taiwan's CGA had announced that two CCG vessels conducted three separate incursions into the contiguous zone.

Beijing's official messaging also aligns with this trajectory. In a February press release marking the fifth anniversary of the China Coast Guard Law, the CCG emphasized "the normalization of patrols, enhanced enforcement capabilities, and institutionalized control in sensitive maritime areas, asserting new operational patterns around the Taiwan Strait."

Conclusion

The data suggests that CCG activities around Pratas are transitioning from limited, peripheral patrols to a more regularized presence. And though January and February have seen almost no patrol activity in previous years, five CCG patrols around Pratas have already occurred in 2026 as of March. The increase in vessel numbers, increasingly close approaches to the island, and synchronization with large-scale PLA drills all point to an evolving focus from Beijing on outlying islands, including Pratas.

Cover photo: Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2021/Getty Images