Turkey price trims Thanksgiving meal cost but not to pre-pandemic levels

This year, the American Farm Bureau Federation reports the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 is $58.08, a 5% decrease from last year.

Turkey, the centerpiece of America's Thanksgiving table, accounts for 44% of the total survey cost. Despite high-path avian influenza contributing to the lowest turkey inventory since 1985, demand for turkey has also decreased, according to an American Farm Bureau market intel. With demand falling, turkey prices dropped to $1.68 per pound, bringing the cost of a 16-pound bird to $25.67-6% less than in 2023.

Other notable price changes from the survey include a 14% drop in the cost of a gallon of whole milk and a 14.3% decrease in the price for three pounds of sweet potatoes. However, some items saw increases; price tags on a 14-ounce package of cubed stuffing mix and a dozen dinner rolls are up roughly 8%.

While the decline in this year's Thanksgiving meal costs offers some relief to Americans, this year's meal is still 19% more expensive than the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

"When considering these costs, it's important to remember farmers aren't necessarily benefiting from higher food prices at the grocery store," says Dr. Christopher Pudenz, Iowa Farm Bureau's economics and research manager. "Farmers only receive 16 cents of every food dollar spent and are also battling inflationary pressures on inputs like machinery and fertilizer."

These pressures are evident in net farm income, which is projected by USDA's Economic Research Service to lower by at least 23% in 2024 compared to 2022. This strain on farmers is rippling through the broader economy, particularly in Iowa, where businesses and communities rely on agriculture.

Between January 1 and September 10, 2024, 23 agriculture-related businesses in Iowa announced layoffs, affecting nearly 4,100 workers. An analysis commissioned by the Iowa Farm Bureau estimates job losses could climb to 11,400 statewide as the impact of reduced farm income spreads. The same analysis projects a $1.5 billion decline in value-added economic activity and a $100 million decrease in state and local tax revenue.

"Staggering numbers like these reinforce how important it is for Congress to pass a modernized farm bill," says Iowa Farm Bureau President Brent Johnson. "Risk protection programs ensure farmers don't lose their entire farming legacy during an economic downturn and keeps Americans' food supply more affordable-beyond Thanksgiving."

The American Farm Bureau's annual Thanksgiving dinner survey, conducted from November 1-7, offers a snapshot of current grocery prices. Farm Bureau volunteers from all 50 states compile data on traditional Thanksgiving items, including frozen pie crusts, pumpkin pie mix, whipping cream, dinner rolls, fresh cranberries, whole milk, frozen peas, sweet potatoes, and stuffing. For those planning a larger feast, an expanded menu-including boneless ham, russet potatoes, and frozen green beans-brings the cost up to $77.34.

For more details on this year's survey, visit www.fb.org.