Russian superpower ambitions will remain also after the war

Russian superpower ambitions will remain also after the war

Russia strives to increase its intelligence capability in Finland when the war in Ukraine eventually comes to an end. Post-war Russia is expected to be willing to restore its relations with Western countries, including Finland. However, its superpower aspirations will remain unchanged.

The Finnish Security and Intelligence Service's (SUPO) assessment of the development of the Russian threat remains similar to the previous year: The security situation in Finland may deteriorate further when Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine ends. Russian intelligence capacity in Europe has suffered due to the war, and Russia is preparing to restore this capacity particularly in terms of human intelligence. Russian intelligence and influencing resources currently tied to Ukraine will become available to be used elsewhere after the war, and Russia's permanent interest in Finland is ensured by Finland's position as a NATO country between the Baltic Sea and the Arctic region. The current uncertain security situation underlines the importance of intelligence produced by the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service to the government.

Although the war appears to continue for the foreseeable future, Western countries, including Finland, will have to decide how to restore economic and political relations with post-war Russia. Russia aims to regain its foothold in intelligence as well as in political and economic influencing, and one of its key objectives is to ease the sanctions imposed on it. Russia's potential willingness to cooperate will not reverse the confrontational stance it has taken in relation to the West. Its strategic superpower ambitions will remain. These views are described in the SUPO National Security Overview which was published in a public hearing of the Parliamentary Intelligence Oversight Committee on 10 March.

"If relations are even partially restored, the intelligence threat posed by Russia to Finland will become more diverse, with previous operating methods complemented by methods proven effective in the current environment. These include the extensive utilisation of proxy actors and intelligence gathering from bases on Russian soil," says Juha Martelius, Director of the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service.

Finland and the Nordic countries have thus far not been at the focus of Russian influencing operations, and no sabotage has been targeted against Finland. As various events are readily attributed to Russia, Russian influencing against Finland may appear more extensive than it truly is. Such interpretations increase Russian deterrence.

In addition to Russia, also China has a continuous and long-term intelligence interest in Finland. While Chinese cyber operations continue to focus on foreign and security policy, in recent years they have increasingly targeted critical infrastructure in the West.

Superpowers leverage economic and technological dependencies

The importance of the private sector economy for national security is increasing as states are seeking to secure their own positions in the competition for technological development and the raw materials it requires. SUPO is aware of numerous successful cyber espionage cases in recent years in which state actors have penetrated the systems of Finnish start-ups. State-backed intelligence operations most often originate from Russia or China.

Dependencies on energy supply, raw materials, technologies, and supply and production chains give superpowers with control over them leverage to pressure other countries. For example, China has gained control over a significant portion of the supply chains of critical minerals, allowing it to exert influence by restricting the export of critical minerals from China.

From the perspective of national security, it is essential to ensure that Finnish top-level national government is able to make its decisions from the perspective of Finnish interests. SUPO has taken a more prominent role in the field of economic security over the past year.

The National Security Overview also includes an updated terrorist threat assessment. The threat level of terrorism remains at level three, elevated, on a five-point scale.

Inquiries

SUPO communications, tel. +358 50 402 6981, [email protected]