What Really Drove Deere Stock Higher

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Deere & Company (DE) sells tractors, combines, and construction machines. Before dividends, its stock rose 76.0% from the close of July 30, 2021, to the close of October 21, 2026. It is tempting to credit all of that to a business that sold more machines. So how much of the rise do you think came from Deere selling more?

How Much Did Deere's Sales Grow?

Sales grew far less than the stock did, rising 13.1%. Sales were $46.9 billion in the twelve months to August 2, 2026, compared with $41.5 billion in the twelve months to August 1, 2021.

So sales explain only about a fifth of the stock's rise. That growth was real, but it is a small part of why the shares are worth more now.

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What Else Lifted Deere Stock?

Most of the rise came from a higher price-to-earnings multiple, the amount investors pay for each dollar of profit. Here is how the rise splits across its four sources.

More than nine-tenths of the stock's rise came from Deere's multiple, which went from 20.8 at the close of July 30, 2021, to 35.4 at the latest close.

Deere also bought back shares, and its diluted share count fell 13.6%. That smaller count provided about a quarter of the stock's rise. Its net margin, the share of sales the company keeps as profit, moved the other way: it narrowed and pulled the price down.

Can Margins And Multiples Climb Forever?

They cannot climb forever, and Deere's multiple is already close to its ten-year high. Measured on quarter-end prices, the multiple peaked at 37.2 at the end of September 2026, compared with a low of 10.9 in June 2024.

The margin sits at 10.4%, below its ten-year high of 16.9% reached in fiscal Q4 2023. Sales can keep growing for as long as Deere sells more machines. A margin or a multiple cannot climb forever, so the lift Deere got from its multiple cannot be counted on again the way sales growth can.

What Deere Would Need To Repeat Its Rise

If the margin, the multiple and the share count stayed where they are, Deere's sales would need to grow 11.4% a year for the stock to rise as much again over the next five years or so. Over the past five years, Deere's sales grew 2.5% a year.

On the August 20, 2026 call, management said net sales and revenues rose 5% in fiscal Q3 2026 from a year earlier, as Deere shipped more small ag and turf equipment and construction and forestry machines at better prices. Management also believes 2026 marks the bottom of the farm equipment cycle, with a measured recovery rather than a sharp rebound in 2027.

When the company reports again, expected in November 2026, watch whether Deere's sales growth moves toward the 11.4% a year a repeat would take.

Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?

Much of what Deere holders have gained came from something other than sales growth. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.

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