Venezuelans Welcome U.S. Intervention, But Hope for a Rapid Democratic Transition Post-Maduro

Commentary by Mark Feierstein and Mary Speck

Published March 2, 2026

Venezuela has remained in political limbo for nearly two months since the January 3 capture of Nicolás Maduro. The dictator is gone, but the de facto regime has not relinquished power. Hundreds of political prisoners have been released, though hundreds more still languish in jail. The country's most prominent opposition leader-María Corina Machado-remains in exile.

Amid the uncertainty, Venezuelans are hopeful. A recent nation-wide survey, conducted by Gold Glove Consulting in late January 2026, the first face-to-face poll since the U.S. intervention-found that Venezuelans were overwhelmingly optimistic (83 percent), more than half (55 percent) supported Maduro's arrest, and majorities approved of U.S. action to stop drug flows (92 percent), expel Cuban and Iranian advisers (68 percent), and cease the sale of sanctioned oil to U.S. adversaries, such as China and Cuba (53 percent).

They were also comfortable with U.S. control over the sale and distribution of Venezuelan oil, which represents almost 90 percent of the country's export revenues, provides about half of the government's revenues, and up to 20 percent of the GDP. After suffering years of recession and hyperinflation, they want a government that can address basic economic needs, such as bringing down the cost of living (62 percent), improving healthcare (44 percent), and providing jobs (35 percent).

But U.S. policymakers should not take Venezuelan approval for granted. While most may be relieved that the status quo is ending without social upheaval-and hopeful that the removal of U.S. sanctions will revive their country's economy-that does not mean they are willing to wait indefinitely for political change.

The survey showed that a majority (68 percent) think elections should be held within a year. If a national vote were held today, Machado's opposition coalition would rout Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president and now acting head of state, 67 percent to 25 percent.

"Venezuelans are asking the rest of the world to share our sense of urgency," said Miguel Pizarro, a former National Assembly member and member of Machado's Venezuelan Democratic Unity Platform. "What, for a lot of people, started on January 3, for the Venezuelan people, started more than 20 years ago."

Partisan Divides

Those findings are consistent with the results of the July 2024 presidential election, as verified by electoral observers who collected and published more than 80 percent of the voting tallies. That election pitted Maduro against Edmundo González, a former diplomat who led the main opposition ticket after the government banned Machado from running. Although the government-aligned electoral council declared Maduro the winner, the tallies showed that he had won only 30 percent of the votes, compared with 67 percent for González.

Unsurprisingly, public opinion on when to hold elections breaks down along ideological lines. Respondents who self-identified as "Chavistas"-supporters of the socialist regime established by the late President Hugo Chávez-tended to favor a postponement of the vote. More than three out of four (77 percent) thought elections should be delayed for a year, and a majority (58 percent) preferred to wait until 2030. In contrast, 90 percent of those who self-identified as government opponents favored elections this year, as did 72 percent of independents.

But only 17 percent of those polled called themselves Chavistas. And they tended to be older: About two-thirds of those who identified as Chavistas were more than 50 years old. A total of 37 percent identified with the opposition. A plurality of Venezuelans identified with neither the government nor the opposition. Nearly half (42 percent) called themselves independents.

Political Footwork

That suggests the old left-right ideological divisions are breaking down in Venezuela, a process that the U.S. intervention is likely to accelerate. The Chavista movement, which once defined itself in opposition to U.S. imperialism, must now rely on U.S. support to survive. This is forcing the regime into a complicated dance: To revive the economy, it needs to placate the United States without demoralizing its political base.

President Rodríguez has denounced the U.S. intervention, affirming that Maduro is still the country's legitimate president, while also meeting with a parade of U.S. officials, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe and the U.S. Southern Command chief, General Francis L. Donovan, who oversees military operations in Central and South America, plus the Caribbean. She also met with Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, who visited Venezuela to assess the country's all-important oil industry. Her government approved reforms that open the industry up to private investment, undermining the Chavista movement's socialist principles.

In return, the United States has begun easing sanctions, allowing the country to resume the sale of oil, though the revenues, which were initially deposited in Qatar, will now go to a U.S. treasury account.

While compromising on economic policies, Rodríguez has kept the security apparatus largely intact. Though the Cuban security advisers who managed the country's much-feared intelligence services are leaving, the regime has retained Diosdado Cabello as minister of the interior and Vladimir Padrino as minister of defense, both of whom still face U.S. sanctions for drug trafficking.

Cabello and Padrino are deeply unpopular, with unfavorable ratings of 83 percent and 81 percent, respectively. So is Rodríguez, who was viewed unfavorably by 73 percent. Venezuelans' acceptance of her provisional presidency may be tempered by the belief that she is not really in charge. Respondents were divided about who is running their country, with 43 percent saying Delcy Rodríguez and 43 percent saying Donald Trump.

Working with the Regime

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told Congress that the United States is committed to ensuring that Venezuela transitions into a democracy "in which all elements of society are represented in free and fair elections." But he said the United States' "objective number one was stability" and resisted calls by some U.S. lawmakers to set democratic benchmarks and an electoral timeline. "We are dealing with individuals that in our system would not be acceptable in the long term," Rubio said. "But we are in a transition to the stabilization phase. You have to work with the people currently in charge of the elements of government."

That worries those who point out the regime's repressive apparatus remains intact. Although the government has freed hundreds of political prisoners, many have been subject to conditions, such as regular court appearances, travel bans, and gag orders. And an amnesty law recently passed by the Chavista National Assembly excludes those promoting "armed or forceful actions" against Venezuela "by foreign states." This could apply to Machado, who supported U.S. action to oust Maduro. It also appears to exclude military officers accused of conspiring against the government.

Opposition leaders fear the regime is trying to buy time, hoping to take credit for any economic recovery while maintaining its ability to repress dissent. Many Venezuelans remain wary about expressing political views, especially independents and regime opponents. The poll found that more than two-thirds felt only a "little comfortable" or "not comfortable at all" talking about politics with their neighbors. That included 73 percent of the opposition and 80 percent of independents. In contrast, 68 percent of Chavistas felt "very comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" talking about politics.

Stability or Change

Meanwhile, the opposition is cautiously testing the political waters. On Feb.12, students calling for democracy and the release of political prisoners held a rally at the Central University, which emerged as a center of resistance to the regime two decades ago. The protestors were closely monitored by police, who kept them apart from a competing pro-Maduro demonstration held not far away by government workers. Two days before, newly released opposition leader Juan Pablo Guanipa was rearrested by armed men in civilian clothes after participating in another protest. He was later released under house arrest, which was lifted following the passage of the amnesty law.

The United States has the leverage to bring both sides together to negotiate the terms for credible elections, with guarantees for both regime supporters and opponents. It should not only weigh the potential costs of disrupting the status quo, but also of restraining the country's pent-up opposition forces.

Both sides have incentives to participate in a genuinely democratic process. Although battered by years of economic decline and repression, supporters of the regime remain a potent political force. The opposition must also reassure voters-including the plurality of citizens who identify as independents-that they are willing and able to prioritize economic recovery.

The long-suffering Venezuelan people are hopeful but unsure about their political future. They need leaders-in both Caracas and Washington, D.C.-ready to take decisive steps toward a genuine democratic opening.

Mary Speck is a former senior advisor to the Latin America Program at the United States Institute of Peace. Mark Feierstein is a senior adviser (non-resident) with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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